Swings in NY/NJ
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  Swings in NY/NJ
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nclib
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« on: January 18, 2006, 11:46:49 PM »

Virtually every county in NY and NJ trended Republican due to 9/11 and (in NJ) McGreevey. But some much moreso than others. The five strongest swings were:

Richmond NY 20.6
Ocean NJ 19.6
Rockland NY 17.9
Monmouth NJ 14.7
Kings NY 14.3

Those were also the strongest swings for counties with over 100,000 votes for the entire country. Does anyone know why these counties trended more strongly than the others?
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2006, 11:53:57 PM »

the 9/11 effect is too simplistic.

as our friend lewis has pointed out, much of the 'swing' in nj and ny was just a correction from 2000.
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Cubby
Pim Fortuyn
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« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2006, 04:27:43 AM »

I don't think McGreevey was much of a factor in the New Jersey election. His approval rating actually went up for awhile after the scandal broke in August.

Walter and Lewis are right about 2000. Gore did much better than he would have b/c of his running mate.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2006, 05:42:23 AM »

...and because of the guns issue, which helped Democrats here.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2006, 06:05:38 AM »

Sod all evidence for a 9/11 swing; it's just an excuse used by people who can't accept that there Inevitable TRENDING DEMOCART LOL!!! theories are a lot of partisan stupidity founded in wishful thinking and alcohol.
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Cubby
Pim Fortuyn
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« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2006, 04:11:05 AM »

...and because of the guns issue, which helped Democrats here.

We definetely favor gun control around here, but its a minor issue compared to the red states.

In Connecticut, a couple towns make hunters use bows and arrows during deer season, b/c the risk of injury to children and such is so high. We have an obscene number of deer and they are a big problem. You literally can't garden anymore, they eat everything.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2006, 07:15:23 AM »

...and because of the guns issue, which helped Democrats here.

We definetely favor gun control around here, but its a minor issue compared to the red states.

In Connecticut, a couple towns make hunters use bows and arrows during deer season, b/c the risk of injury to children and such is so high. We have an obscene number of deer and they are a big problem. You literally can't garden anymore, they eat everything.

You're talking to someone from Pennsylvania.  We have so many deer it unbelievable.  In this state, more deer die from being hit with a car than from hunting each year.
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Smash255
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« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2006, 05:44:11 PM »

the 9/11 effect is too simplistic.

as our friend lewis has pointed out, much of the 'swing' in nj and ny was just a correction from 2000.

Not really, their was a pretty much hard Dem trend in all these countied from 88-2000, in fact for the most part against the national average the biggest shift was 92-96, went further to the Dems in 2000, but not as much as the 92-96 movement.

9/11 had a ton to do with the movement towards Bush, something that went out the window over the past year.
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