Which is more likely in 2020?

[SingingAnalyst]

I vote option 2.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will pickup AZ, Trump can keep MI and PA and still lose EC due to losing AZ and TX, due to McSally being so weak

[Gracile]

Option 1. That 2nd option hasn't happened in recent history, and I would expect at least one state to flip from 2016.

[SN2903]

Option 2. All 3 of the big 3 states Trump picked up have very similar demographics and with a strong economy and weak democratic field there is a better chance the map stays the same then democrats win Az.

[538Electoral]

The map looks the same as 2016. I stand by my unpopular opinion that Trump will win Arizona fairly easily.

[Xing]

Option 1, only because I doubt that the map will be exactly the same.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Firehouse showed us Trump can win one of three blue freiwall states, and Biden can win a Latino state in TX and AZ to make up for it. This is the new political climate we are in.

[dw93]

Equal chance of either option, but I think neither are likely. The Dems will win at least one of WI, MI, and PA, but  I doubt they have a good enough night to flip AZ (even if they improve on their 2016 numbers there).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Equal chance of either option, but I think neither are likely. The Dems will win at least one of WI, MI, and PA, but  I doubt they have a good enough night to flip AZ (even if they improve on their 2016 numbers there).

McCain was on the ballot in 2016, that's why Dems failed in AZ, we can beat McSally

[dw93]

Equal chance of either option, but I think neither are likely. The Dems will win at least one of WI, MI, and PA, but  I doubt they have a good enough night to flip AZ (even if they improve on their 2016 numbers there).

McCain was on the ballot in 2016, that's why Dems failed in AZ, we can beat McSally

Wasn't talking the Senate, I was talking the Presidency. I think Trump will do worse, but eek it out in the end.

[SN2903]

The map looks the same as 2016. I stand by my unpopular opinion that Trump will win Arizona fairly easily.

I stand by my unpopular opinion that the election isn't gonna be that close. I think Trump could win 330-340 EV easily. Hillary was a much more moderate candidate than any of the dems running in 2020 and Trump was an unknown then he isn't now. Dems are all largely seen as unknowns, even Biden most voters barely know him. They know he was Obamas VP. Dems are in deep crap. This impeachment thing is gonna put the house in play.

[Hammy]

Finally, somebody found a situation in which the Dems picking up Arizona is actually the more likely scenario.

[MT Treasurer]

Option 1. I also expect AZ to vote to the left of WI and maybe MI.

[SingingAnalyst]

Trump's approval numbers have been remarkably stable the last couple years, according to 538.

Actually, I think neither will happen: Trump picks up NH and the map is otherwise the same.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The map wont be the same

[redeagleofficial]

Trump will win Arizona by 2.1% in 2020.  He will win Maricopa county by less than 3,000 votes.  I go with Option 2.  Never happened, but law of averages is a thing too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also, the QU poll is wrong showing Biden winning by 9 points and McSally losing by 3 to Kelly?!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Option one. I fail to see how successive elections having the exact same map will not be the case in 2020, even if it's with just one state as the difference.

[TDAS04]

Option 1.  AZ has >50% chance of flipping,  Option 2 has never happened.

[Illiniwek]

Stop talking about Texas flipping. It ain't gonna happen.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Although a repeat of the 2016 map is well higher than zero, AZ is a true swing state and has an over 40% chance of flipping, so A.

[SN2903]

#2