2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My attempt at a clean TN 8-1 map.

Certainly is clean.

[Idaho Conservative]

My attempt at a clean TN 8-1 map.

Trump+20 should be the benchmark.  25 would be best

[Alcibiades]

This article got some attention on here because of Cooper’s remarks about South Carolinians’ “extra chromosomes”, but he also discusses the potential cracking of Nashville. Essentially, his strategy seems to be get the Nashville business community to lobby the GOP to keep the city whole, and generally generate outrage surrounding it among various groups in the city.

https://www.nashvillepost.com/politics/article/21144632/jim-cooper-on-2020-2022-and-more

Personally, I think the only way Cooper survives is if parochial concerns get in the way of creating the optimal map for Republicans, and they get cold feet about trends in the suburbs.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This article got some attention on here because of Cooper’s remarks about South Carolinians’ “extra chromosomes”, but he also discusses the potential cracking of Nashville. Essentially, his strategy seems to be get the Nashville business community to lobby the GOP to keep the city whole, and generally generate outrage surrounding it among various groups in the city.

https://www.nashvillepost.com/politics/article/21144632/jim-cooper-on-2020-2022-and-more

Personally, I think the only way Cooper survives is if parochial concerns get in the way of creating the optimal map for Republicans, and they get cold feet about trends in the suburbs.

You can do it so safely that, even if the suburbs continue to move leftwards, it shouldn't be an issue in the 2020s.  I don't think DRA has the 2020 data, but it's not hard at all to have every district being well over R+20 on DRA (and you can have the districts containing the counties that swung the most in 2020 being more like R+30 in the DRA numbers).

Also, is it just me, or does Cooper sound really condescending to the rest of Tennessee in that interview?

[Alcibiades]

This article got some attention on here because of Cooper’s remarks about South Carolinians’ “extra chromosomes”, but he also discusses the potential cracking of Nashville. Essentially, his strategy seems to be get the Nashville business community to lobby the GOP to keep the city whole, and generally generate outrage surrounding it among various groups in the city.

https://www.nashvillepost.com/politics/article/21144632/jim-cooper-on-2020-2022-and-more

Personally, I think the only way Cooper survives is if parochial concerns get in the way of creating the optimal map for Republicans, and they get cold feet about trends in the suburbs.

You can do it so safely that, even if the suburbs continue to move leftwards, it shouldn't be an issue in the 2020s.  I don't think DRA has the 2020 data, but it's not hard at all to have every district being well over R+20 on DRA (and you can have the districts containing the counties that swung the most in 2020 being more like R+30 in the DRA numbers).

Also, is it just me, or does Cooper sound really condescending to the rest of Tennessee in that interview?

I know that it is theoretically possible, my point was that if there are issues with residences in districts or congressmen balking at taking on parts of Nashville, a riskier map than is ideally necessary could have to be drawn.

Yes, Cooper is being a little condescending, but it’s not exactly untrue what he’s saying, and you can hardly blame him when, as he says, Republicans are not particularly polite towards Nashville or big cities in general.

[Sol]

Cooper is probably a little more prepared for being drawn out than most congressmembers; he used to represent a bunch of rural turf to the east of Nashville, for example. That doesn't really matter now in terms of his electoral performance or anything but I think that Cooper has probably been preparing for this for a while.

[Idaho Conservative]

Cooper is probably a little more prepared for being drawn out than most congressmembers; he used to represent a bunch of rural turf to the east of Nashville, for example. That doesn't really matter now in terms of his electoral performance or anything but I think that Cooper has probably been preparing for this for a while.

If Nashville is cracked, TN-5 will be safe R.  Even in a blue wave Cooper wouldn't survive a Trump+25 district, but in a red wave he'd be lucky to keep the race within 20 points.

[Sol]

Cooper is probably a little more prepared for being drawn out than most congressmembers; he used to represent a bunch of rural turf to the east of Nashville, for example. That doesn't really matter now in terms of his electoral performance or anything but I think that Cooper has probably been preparing for this for a while.

If Nashville is cracked, TN-5 will be safe R.  Even in a blue wave Cooper wouldn't survive a Trump+25 district, but in a red wave he'd be lucky to keep the race within 20 points.

I didn't mean in terms of ability to win, I meant politically--i.e. amassing people who would oppose cracking Nashville.

[Idaho Conservative]

Here's a trend conscious map.  TN-5 is still dominated by the Nashville are, but it contains not a single precinct of its current iteration.  It's now an suburban/rural district Trump won by 35 in 2016.  A majority of residents are in Williamson/Rutherford.  So Nashville metro is no more disenfranchised then on the current map.  Instead of the Nashville seat being urban and suburbs cracked, the urban area is cracked and the suburbs get their own seat.  The 3 seats cracking Nashville all are safe, the closest of them being Trump+24.  By using rural areas rather than suburbs to crack Nashville, the map is pretty much protected from trends.  East TN is also drawn with parochial concerns. 

[Sol]

Cooper is probably a little more prepared for being drawn out than most congressmembers; he used to represent a bunch of rural turf to the east of Nashville, for example. That doesn't really matter now in terms of his electoral performance or anything but I think that Cooper has probably been preparing for this for a while.

If Nashville is cracked, TN-5 will be safe R.  Even in a blue wave Cooper wouldn't survive a Trump+25 district, but in a red wave he'd be lucky to keep the race within 20 points.

I didn't mean in terms of ability to win, I meant politically--i.e. amassing people who would oppose cracking Nashville.

the rural Dems are basically all gone now.

Did you read my post?

[Alcibiades]

The potential cracking of Nashville might have quite serious implications for the TN Dems beyond merely losing a congressional seat. Nashville Democrats (traditionally white and moderate) have long been at the heart of the state’s Democratic establishment, but now they might have no opportunity for higher office beyond mayor/state legislator.

[Mr.Phips]

The potential cracking of Nashville might have quite serious implications for the TN Dems beyond merely losing a congressional seat. Nashville Democrats (traditionally white and moderate) have long been at the heart of the state’s Democratic establishment, but now they might have no opportunity for higher office beyond mayor/state legislator.

It’s not like any Dem can win statewide in Tennessee anymore.

[Alcibiades]

The potential cracking of Nashville might have quite serious implications for the TN Dems beyond merely losing a congressional seat. Nashville Democrats (traditionally white and moderate) have long been at the heart of the state’s Democratic establishment, but now they might have no opportunity for higher office beyond mayor/state legislator.

It’s not like any Dem can win statewide in Tennessee anymore.

True, but you want to have a bench to keep the statewide apparatus functioning, and also just in case the GOP nominate a Roy Moore-tier candidate.

[Del Tachi]

The potential cracking of Nashville might have quite serious implications for the TN Dems beyond merely losing a congressional seat. Nashville Democrats (traditionally white and moderate) have long been at the heart of the state’s Democratic establishment, but now they might have no opportunity for higher office beyond mayor/state legislator.

Nah, agraian West Tennessee and Memphis have always been the epicenter for TN Democrats.  Long-time Speakers of the TN House Ned McWherter (1973-87) and Jimmy Naifeh (1991-2009) were West TN Democrats.

Politics in Nashville has always had a stronger "professional" constituency tilted towards high-earning MBAs, MDs and JDs at the expense of business owners, farmers and other good ol' boys.  In the previous alignment, this made White Nashvillians the base of the TN-GOP (similar to how Jefferson County, AL or Fulton/Cobb County, GA Whites were once the base of the GOP in their respective states, too.)  It's no coincidence that Bill Frist, Fred Thompson, Beth Harwell and Bill Lee all hail from Nashville.       

[Alcibiades]

The potential cracking of Nashville might have quite serious implications for the TN Dems beyond merely losing a congressional seat. Nashville Democrats (traditionally white and moderate) have long been at the heart of the state’s Democratic establishment, but now they might have no opportunity for higher office beyond mayor/state legislator.

Nah, agraian West Tennessee and Memphis have always been the epicenter for TN Democrats.  Long-time Speakers of the TN House Ned McWherter (1973-87) and Jimmy Naifeh (1991-2009) were West TN Democrats.

Politics in Nashville has always had a stronger "professional" constituency tilted towards high-earning MBAs, MDs and JDs at the expense of business owners, farmers and other good ol' boys.  In the previous alignment, this made White Nashvillians the base of the TN-GOP (similar to how Jefferson County, AL or Fulton/Cobb County, GA Whites were once the base of the GOP in their respective states, too.)  It's no coincidence that Bill Frist, Fred Thompson, Beth Harwell and Bill Lee all hail from Nashville.       

Interesting; I guess you’re right. My perception (correct me if I’m wrong) was that rural West TN was more plantation South, while rural Middle TN had stronger New Deal/TVA Democratic roots.

I would have also thought that the TNGOP base until quite recently was more the relatively moderate Republicans from the ancestral heartland in East TN (Baker, Alexander, Haslam and Corker), and was actually less dominated by right-wing suburbanites than many other Southern states.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The potential cracking of Nashville might have quite serious implications for the TN Dems beyond merely losing a congressional seat. Nashville Democrats (traditionally white and moderate) have long been at the heart of the state’s Democratic establishment, but now they might have no opportunity for higher office beyond mayor/state legislator.

Nah, agraian West Tennessee and Memphis have always been the epicenter for TN Democrats.  Long-time Speakers of the TN House Ned McWherter (1973-87) and Jimmy Naifeh (1991-2009) were West TN Democrats.

Politics in Nashville has always had a stronger "professional" constituency tilted towards high-earning MBAs, MDs and JDs at the expense of business owners, farmers and other good ol' boys.  In the previous alignment, this made White Nashvillians the base of the TN-GOP (similar to how Jefferson County, AL or Fulton/Cobb County, GA Whites were once the base of the GOP in their respective states, too.)  It's no coincidence that Bill Frist, Fred Thompson, Beth Harwell and Bill Lee all hail from Nashville.      

Interesting; I guess you’re right. My perception (correct me if I’m wrong) was that rural West TN was more plantation South, while rural Middle TN had stronger New Deal/TVA Democratic roots.

I would have also thought that the TNGOP base until quite recently was more the relatively moderate Republicans from the ancestral heartland in East TN (Baker, Alexander, Haslam and Corker), and was actually less dominated by right-wing suburbanites than many other Southern states.

There have always really been two wings- the East Tennessee Establishment Republicans (Haslam, Corker, Alexander, Randy Boyd, etc.) who are relatively non-ideological and the Suburban Nashville Conservatives (Blackburn, Lee, Frist, Thompson, etc.).  That's independent of the growing rise of Trumpism.  Also, West Tennessee tends to go more for the "good ol' boys", more in line with East Tennessee.  Look at the Sethi vs. Hagerty primary map.  While both were from Middle Tennessee, it's clear which one was trying to be the Suburban Nashville Conservative and which one was trying to be the Good Ol' Tennessee Republican.

[Idaho Conservative]

The potential cracking of Nashville might have quite serious implications for the TN Dems beyond merely losing a congressional seat. Nashville Democrats (traditionally white and moderate) have long been at the heart of the state’s Democratic establishment, but now they might have no opportunity for higher office beyond mayor/state legislator.

Nah, agraian West Tennessee and Memphis have always been the epicenter for TN Democrats.  Long-time Speakers of the TN House Ned McWherter (1973-87) and Jimmy Naifeh (1991-2009) were West TN Democrats.

Politics in Nashville has always had a stronger "professional" constituency tilted towards high-earning MBAs, MDs and JDs at the expense of business owners, farmers and other good ol' boys.  In the previous alignment, this made White Nashvillians the base of the TN-GOP (similar to how Jefferson County, AL or Fulton/Cobb County, GA Whites were once the base of the GOP in their respective states, too.)  It's no coincidence that Bill Frist, Fred Thompson, Beth Harwell and Bill Lee all hail from Nashville.      

Interesting; I guess you’re right. My perception (correct me if I’m wrong) was that rural West TN was more plantation South, while rural Middle TN had stronger New Deal/TVA Democratic roots.

I would have also thought that the TNGOP base until quite recently was more the relatively moderate Republicans from the ancestral heartland in East TN (Baker, Alexander, Haslam and Corker), and was actually less dominated by right-wing suburbanites than many other Southern states.

There have always really been two wings- the East Tennessee Establishment Republicans (Haslam, Corker, Alexander, Randy Boyd, etc.) who are relatively non-ideological and the Suburban Nashville Conservatives (Blackburn, Lee, Frist, Thompson, etc.).  That's independent of the growing rise of Trumpism.  Also, West Tennessee tends to go more for the "good ol' boys", more in line with East Tennessee.  Look at the Sethi vs. Hagerty primary map.  While both were from Middle Tennessee, it's clear which one was trying to be the Suburban Nashville Conservative and which one was trying to be the Good Ol' Tennessee Republican.

why are applacian republicans more moderate than suburban republicans?

[Sol]

The potential cracking of Nashville might have quite serious implications for the TN Dems beyond merely losing a congressional seat. Nashville Democrats (traditionally white and moderate) have long been at the heart of the state’s Democratic establishment, but now they might have no opportunity for higher office beyond mayor/state legislator.

Nah, agraian West Tennessee and Memphis have always been the epicenter for TN Democrats.  Long-time Speakers of the TN House Ned McWherter (1973-87) and Jimmy Naifeh (1991-2009) were West TN Democrats.

Politics in Nashville has always had a stronger "professional" constituency tilted towards high-earning MBAs, MDs and JDs at the expense of business owners, farmers and other good ol' boys.  In the previous alignment, this made White Nashvillians the base of the TN-GOP (similar to how Jefferson County, AL or Fulton/Cobb County, GA Whites were once the base of the GOP in their respective states, too.)  It's no coincidence that Bill Frist, Fred Thompson, Beth Harwell and Bill Lee all hail from Nashville.      

Interesting; I guess you’re right. My perception (correct me if I’m wrong) was that rural West TN was more plantation South, while rural Middle TN had stronger New Deal/TVA Democratic roots.

I would have also thought that the TNGOP base until quite recently was more the relatively moderate Republicans from the ancestral heartland in East TN (Baker, Alexander, Haslam and Corker), and was actually less dominated by right-wing suburbanites than many other Southern states.

There have always really been two wings- the East Tennessee Establishment Republicans (Haslam, Corker, Alexander, Randy Boyd, etc.) who are relatively non-ideological and the Suburban Nashville Conservatives (Blackburn, Lee, Frist, Thompson, etc.).  That's independent of the growing rise of Trumpism.  Also, West Tennessee tends to go more for the "good ol' boys", more in line with East Tennessee.  Look at the Sethi vs. Hagerty primary map.  While both were from Middle Tennessee, it's clear which one was trying to be the Suburban Nashville Conservative and which one was trying to be the Good Ol' Tennessee Republican.

why are applacian republicans more moderate than suburban republicans?

Not very knowledgeable about Tennessee, but I imagine it's a result of historical patterns in voting.

Most of East Tennessee was ancestrally Republican, in much the same way that much of the rest of the South was ancestrally Democratic. This affiliation was based on historic opposition to secession, etc. rather than a strong ideological identification.

Meanwhile, as the Republican party began to grow in suburban Nashville in the back half of the 20th century, as elsewhere in the sunbelt its appeal was a strongly ideological one--a heady mix of anti-communism, fiscal conservatism, and social conservatism fueled by new evangelical movements.

As a result, I suspect the East Tennessee republicans were less strongly invested in ideological conservatism than their urban and suburban counterparts, so they were probably more willing to cut deals with Democrats, etc.

[lfromnj]

yeah basically in East TN if you wanted to go anywhere in politics you would be a Republican just like most of the South was Democrats. Therefore if everyone was a Republican it would have to include people from all areas of politics.

[S019]

Tennessee Republicans have in multiple articles stayed quiet about their plans on cracking Nashville, saying they will wait for the data to arrive. This shows at least that cracking Nashville is not a done deal, even if I still think it'll happen in the end: https://tennesseelookout.com/2021/06/10/harwell-considering-congressional-run-if-the-lines-are-right/, https://tennesseelookout.com/2021/06/10/democrats-anticipate-republican-efforts-to-redraw-coopers-district-out-of-existence/

[Coastal Elitist]

With the way Cooper continues to behave it would be shocking if he isn't drawn out. It's incredibly easy to do with each seat being at least Trump+23-25. Also not sure what nonsense democrats are talking about regarding potential lawsuits. There are no VRA concerns and no fair district amendments to worry about.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

With the way Cooper continues to behave it would be shocking if he isn't drawn out. It's incredibly easy to do with each seat being at least Trump+23-25. Also not sure what nonsense democrats are talking about regarding potential lawsuits. There are no VRA concerns and no fair district amendments to worry about.

Could you fill me in on what you mean here?

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

In my 8-1 R map. Nashville is cracked by 5 districts and Chattanooga is cracked as well and One VRA seat in Memphis.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6da54831-ec0c-4c51-897d-50dfabbe8758

[Roll Roons]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/35957d25-356d-41a9-bb12-a10613991919

I've shared this on another thread, but this is my 8-1 map. Nashville is split between four Republican districts. The current TN-04, TN-06 and TN-07 are modified to take parts of it, and the new TN-05 now takes in Williamson and several rural counties south of it. At least in 2016, Trump won them all by at least 25 points. Though I would be very curious about 2020 numbers, given the huge leftward swings in Davidson, Williamson and Rutherford. All of these districts should be Safe R for the next two election cycles, though by the end of the decade, one or more could be in trouble if it's a blue wave.

[Coastal Elitist]

With the way Cooper continues to behave it would be shocking if he isn't drawn out. It's incredibly easy to do with each seat being at least Trump+23-25. Also not sure what nonsense democrats are talking about regarding potential lawsuits. There are no VRA concerns and no fair district amendments to worry about.

Could you fill me in on what you mean here?

Like extreme republican said above he's been very egotistical saying Nashville has only been successful because of him and because it's represented by a Democrat plus he's praised the Lincoln project