2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee  (Read 16749 times)
BoiseBoy
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« Reply #175 on: January 24, 2022, 07:47:55 PM »
« edited: January 24, 2022, 07:52:00 PM by BoiseBoy »

TN House passes the congressional map 70-26 (previously passed the senate 26-5) and now goes to Gov. Lee for signing. I feel bad for anyone living there. Good luck.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #176 on: January 24, 2022, 08:13:05 PM »

I'm still not entirely convinced that 8-1 will hold for the decade.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #177 on: January 24, 2022, 08:16:55 PM »
« Edited: January 24, 2022, 11:05:19 PM by lfromnj »

I'm still not entirely convinced that 8-1 will hold for the decade.

A proper 8 1 could.  This probably won't if trends continue.  Still i think it only reverts back to 7 2 at worst for the GOP. Mark Greens seat is much more inelastic and has generally had a decent R trend even if Bredesen came close.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #178 on: January 24, 2022, 10:16:38 PM »

I'm still not entirely convinced that 8-1 will hold for the decade.

I doubt it will remain a safe R seat for the decade. At worst it could be like 2010s OH-01 where it comes close but never actually flips.
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leecannon
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« Reply #179 on: January 24, 2022, 11:42:15 PM »

So the (soon to be) 5th distirct now holds a very interesting resident.

Leigh-Allyn Baker

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leigh-Allyn_Baker

Baker is best known for being on Disney Channel’s Good Luck, Charlie and her viral (hah) opposition to mask and vaccines mandates.

She’s a nut and a celebrity. Honestly could be a rock star in the modern republican party
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #180 on: January 24, 2022, 11:48:26 PM »

So the (soon to be) 5th distirct now holds a very interesting resident.

Leigh-Allyn Baker

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leigh-Allyn_Baker

Baker is best known for being on Disney Channel’s Good Luck, Charlie and her viral (hah) opposition to mask and vaccines mandates.

She’s a nut and a celebrity. Honestly could be a rock star in the modern republican party

I'm fairly sure there's a certain other former Disney Channel star who's originally from this district...
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GALeftist
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« Reply #181 on: January 24, 2022, 11:56:46 PM »

Leigh-Allyn sounds like a fake name
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #182 on: January 25, 2022, 07:15:37 AM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/005bac6a-c6dc-45ac-beaf-8b49eaa12aa8
TN non-partisan map optimized for reducing the number of split counties. Only two are split - Williamson and Shelby.
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« Reply #183 on: January 25, 2022, 06:17:17 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/005bac6a-c6dc-45ac-beaf-8b49eaa12aa8
TN non-partisan map optimized for reducing the number of split counties. Only two are split - Williamson and Shelby.

I question the utility of putting Germantown and Collierville in the Memphis seat while not including the entirety of Memphis proper. It's a moot point strictly on VRA grounds, since the seat will still perform, but in terms of COI it's messy.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #184 on: January 25, 2022, 06:22:01 PM »

Is there a DRA map or shapefiles anywhere for TN?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #185 on: January 25, 2022, 06:22:49 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/005bac6a-c6dc-45ac-beaf-8b49eaa12aa8
TN non-partisan map optimized for reducing the number of split counties. Only two are split - Williamson and Shelby.

I question the utility of putting Germantown and Collierville in the Memphis seat while not including the entirety of Memphis proper. It's a moot point strictly on VRA grounds, since the seat will still perform, but in terms of COI it's messy.

Id also probably add NW rutherford to the Nashville district.
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Sol
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« Reply #186 on: January 25, 2022, 08:54:31 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/005bac6a-c6dc-45ac-beaf-8b49eaa12aa8
TN non-partisan map optimized for reducing the number of split counties. Only two are split - Williamson and Shelby.

I question the utility of putting Germantown and Collierville in the Memphis seat while not including the entirety of Memphis proper. It's a moot point strictly on VRA grounds, since the seat will still perform, but in terms of COI it's messy.

Id also probably add NW rutherford to the Nashville district.

NW Rutherford is definitely the best CoI or whatever but doing that basically forces splitting Smyrna.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #187 on: January 26, 2022, 09:58:26 AM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/005bac6a-c6dc-45ac-beaf-8b49eaa12aa8
TN non-partisan map optimized for reducing the number of split counties. Only two are split - Williamson and Shelby.

I question the utility of putting Germantown and Collierville in the Memphis seat while not including the entirety of Memphis proper. It's a moot point strictly on VRA grounds, since the seat will still perform, but in terms of COI it's messy.
I'm wary of making the 9th more black, and the current arrangement is extremely compact - essentially close as compact as possible.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #188 on: January 26, 2022, 10:49:39 AM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/005bac6a-c6dc-45ac-beaf-8b49eaa12aa8
TN non-partisan map optimized for reducing the number of split counties. Only two are split - Williamson and Shelby.

I question the utility of putting Germantown and Collierville in the Memphis seat while not including the entirety of Memphis proper. It's a moot point strictly on VRA grounds, since the seat will still perform, but in terms of COI it's messy.

Id also probably add NW rutherford to the Nashville district.
I only want two split counties, meaning that one county in Metro Nashville has to be split in two. I can transfer the double chop to Robertson if need be.
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Sol
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« Reply #189 on: January 26, 2022, 12:16:12 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/005bac6a-c6dc-45ac-beaf-8b49eaa12aa8
TN non-partisan map optimized for reducing the number of split counties. Only two are split - Williamson and Shelby.

I question the utility of putting Germantown and Collierville in the Memphis seat while not including the entirety of Memphis proper. It's a moot point strictly on VRA grounds, since the seat will still perform, but in terms of COI it's messy.

Id also probably add NW rutherford to the Nashville district.
I only want two split counties, meaning that one county in Metro Nashville has to be split in two. I can transfer the double chop to Robertson if need be.

IMO it's better to split two counties once than split one county between three districts, which totally dilutes that place's voice.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #190 on: January 26, 2022, 12:51:40 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/005bac6a-c6dc-45ac-beaf-8b49eaa12aa8
TN non-partisan map optimized for reducing the number of split counties. Only two are split - Williamson and Shelby.

I question the utility of putting Germantown and Collierville in the Memphis seat while not including the entirety of Memphis proper. It's a moot point strictly on VRA grounds, since the seat will still perform, but in terms of COI it's messy.

Id also probably add NW rutherford to the Nashville district.
I only want two split counties, meaning that one county in Metro Nashville has to be split in two. I can transfer the double chop to Robertson if need be.

IMO it's better to split two counties once than split one county between three districts, which totally dilutes that place's voice.
That's valid logic in a number of instances. But only a very silly definition could describe either Williamson or Robertson County being diluted here.
73% of Williamson is in TN-07 here. TN-05 takes only 52k of Williamson, and only 13k is taken from Williamson to add to TN-06.
If the chop is transferred to Robertson (a county of 73k), then TN-06 has to take 13k of it. The 52k shortfall of a Nashville-only CD is made up in Robertson, which means 71% of the county is within TN-05. This leaves 8k to go to TN-07.
The math doesn't add up for any dilution claim.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #191 on: January 26, 2022, 01:14:28 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38e4214b-3e69-42c1-8eeb-26ed5ec40a8e
Alternative arrangement in Middle Tennessee. Robertson shifted to the 6th, Macon and Smith shifted to TN-04, TN-04 no longer just whole counties, TN-06 now full counties, Williamson now 16k TN-04, 52k TN-05, 179k TN-07.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #192 on: January 26, 2022, 06:25:15 PM »

Seriously is there no DRA link or shapefile for the passed congressional map? I tried recreating the map based on the text of the bill itself but I'm off by a few people in 5/6 and 8/9.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #193 on: February 01, 2022, 05:36:08 PM »

Update, I was able to get a hold of the shapefiles for the new map. I have imported them into DRA, so you can now find an interactive version of the congressional lines here:



https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f3ed018f-bbe1-4a98-9218-c01c75b4da74
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patzer
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« Reply #194 on: February 02, 2022, 07:12:05 AM »
« Edited: February 02, 2022, 07:17:26 AM by patzer »

Update, I was able to get a hold of the shapefiles for the new map. I have imported them into DRA, so you can now find an interactive version of the congressional lines here:



https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f3ed018f-bbe1-4a98-9218-c01c75b4da74

Wow, so in the 2018 senate election Bredesen (D) won the new 5th by nineteen votes.

And he only lost the 7th by 1071 votes (49.6%-49.1%).

It'd be very amusing if both of those districts end up flipping D later in the decade.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #195 on: February 02, 2022, 07:14:07 AM »

Update, I was able to get a hold of the shapefiles for the new map. I have imported them into DRA, so you can now find an interactive version of the congressional lines here:



https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f3ed018f-bbe1-4a98-9218-c01c75b4da74

Wow, so in the 2018 senate election Breseden (D) won the new 5th by nineteen votes.

And he only lost the 7th by 1071 votes (49.6%-49.1%).

It'd be very amusing if both of those districts end up flipping D later in the decade.
Any chance TN Rs were using 2018 senate numbers as a benchmark for the best possible D performance?
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patzer
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« Reply #196 on: February 02, 2022, 07:26:09 AM »

Any chance TN Rs were using 2018 senate numbers as a benchmark for the best possible D performance?

That wouldn't surprise me.

Hmm, just using presidential data, the 5th went from Trump+17.1% in 2016 to Trump+11.3% in 2020, while the 7th went from Trump+17.2% in 2016 to Trump+15.1% in 2020. So while both of the districts may have had similar performances in 2016 and 2018, looks like it's the 5th that has the best chances for Dems in the future- important to look at trends as well as past performances!
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #197 on: February 02, 2022, 07:37:14 AM »

Any chance TN Rs were using 2018 senate numbers as a benchmark for the best possible D performance?

That wouldn't surprise me.

Hmm, just using presidential data, the 5th went from Trump+17.1% in 2016 to Trump+11.3% in 2020, while the 7th went from Trump+17.2% in 2016 to Trump+15.1% in 2020. So while both of the districts may have had similar performances in 2016 and 2018, looks like it's the 5th that has the best chances for Dems in the future- important to look at trends as well as past performances!
That 2016>2020 swing in TN-05 is notable for two reasons. 1) This is the South, which generally means lower elasticity thanks to less swingy demographics, and 2) It's considerably in excess of the average nationwide swing, which is around 2 points iirc.
I would not at all be shocked if TN-05 or even TN-07 was Dem by 2030.
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« Reply #198 on: February 02, 2022, 07:09:36 PM »

Any chance TN Rs were using 2018 senate numbers as a benchmark for the best possible D performance?

That wouldn't surprise me.

Hmm, just using presidential data, the 5th went from Trump+17.1% in 2016 to Trump+11.3% in 2020, while the 7th went from Trump+17.2% in 2016 to Trump+15.1% in 2020. So while both of the districts may have had similar performances in 2016 and 2018, looks like it's the 5th that has the best chances for Dems in the future- important to look at trends as well as past performances!
That 2016>2020 swing in TN-05 is notable for two reasons. 1) This is the South, which generally means lower elasticity thanks to less swingy demographics, and 2) It's considerably in excess of the average nationwide swing, which is around 2 points iirc.
I would not at all be shocked if TN-05 or even TN-07 was Dem by 2030.

I don't quite see it.  After playing around in DRA, I think the most telling map is the 2016 PRES-2020 SEN swing.  These races had very similar statewide margins, so you could look at it as a trend map.  The mapmakers were very careful to draw the fastest Democratic-trending areas in Middle Tennessee (Eastern Davidson County and Rutherford County) out of either of those districts.  Williamson County looks politically stagnant on that map, and Southern Davidson County actually looks like it's trending rightwards downballot (versus 2016 presidential numbers). 

Compare that to Democratic-trending areas in Knoxville, Chattanooga, Memphis, or right over in Rutherford County, and it's clear that there's something fundamentally different about the wealthier parts of Davidson County in TN-5 and Williamson County.  Now, Northern Maury County actually does show signs of a sustained Democratic trend, but that area is growing so quickly and the margins are still so large that it might still be close to a wash for the GOP.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #199 on: February 03, 2022, 12:57:43 PM »

I'm still not entirely convinced that 8-1 will hold for the decade.

Yeah, I feel like it could become a 7-2 mid decade. But who knows, because it's going to definitely be 8-1 after the 2022 elections, and if Cooper's GOP successor is a strong incumbent, he could fight the trends and last through 2030 (when new maps could be made to shore him up).
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