Why did Obama nearly win Missouri?

[Samof94]

What was it that made Missouri even close in 2008? Today, the state is solid-red.

[Sir Mohamed]

It was much more of purplish state back in 2008. Combined with the horrific environment for the GOP, you get a pretty close result. Dems were much stronger in exurban and rurals back then.

Obama winning IN and coming so close in MT are even bigger surprises of that cycle, imho.

[Atlas Force]

This is a Samof94 threaf, “why did Obama LOSE Missouri” is a much better question considering it was a bellwether state and he was the first Democrat ever to win the White House while losing Missouri (and McCain was the first Republican ever to win Missouri but lose the White House).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How did Al Landon win Vermont in 1936? Today the state is solid blue.

[RI]

As Indiana goes, so goes Missouri (almost).

[Smash255]

Keep in mind Missouri wasn't as solid Republican back in 2008 and also remember Obama's national margin.   Missouri still did trend Republican by almost 3 points in 2008 despite how close the state was.  Main thing though is similar to Ohio, Iowa, etc the Democrats still performed solidly enough with the WWC in the Midwest. 

[Alben Barkley]

It should be no surprise a Democrat nearly won Missouri in 2008. The answer to why Obama narrowly LOST Missouri anyway, the more interesting question, is racism. Hillary would have won it easily in 2008, albeit while likely losing Indiana. Missouri whites even then voted more like Southern than Midwestern whites, and that cost Obama and made all the difference.

[ProgressiveModerate]

On net, Biden 2020 and Obama 2008 has simillar performances in both of MO major metros. Obama just did a lot better than Biden in basically  all of rural MO.

I’d also remind you in that era, MO was somewhat of a close state. Bush only won it by 6% 4 years earlier.

Obama outright winning IN was a much bigger shock imo

[Bismarck]

Obama did great in the rural and suburban Midwest in 2008.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

How did Al Landon win Vermont in 1936? Today the state is solid blue.

That's almost 100 years ago. Obama almost winning MO was only 15 years ago.

I hope you can notice the difference here because you're comparing apples with oranges.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Missouri indeed had the reputation of being a bellwether, but I also think it's a bit overstated, because since LBJ, only 2 Democrats have won it: Carter (who is Democrat from the South) in 1976 and Bill Clinton who also was from Arkansas, a neighbouring state and with Ross Perot had a unique dynamic in having a succesful third party candidacy on the ballot.

It was definitely already toss-up/tilt R for Hillary Clinton and Lean R for Obama. Because the environment nationwide was so D, Obama almost won it, just like he came very close in Montana and outright won Indiana.

Yes, racism probably did play a role and if Obama was white, he would've probably won MO and came much closer in several other southern states. But stating that Hillary would've easily won it, is an exaggeration too because misogynism is a phenomen that also exists. Remember that Bill Clinton's popularity in Arkansas in part took once a hit exactly because of her.

He accused the first lady of being too independent and chastised her for not taking her husband's last name.

The loss of incumbent Bill Clinton in 1980 was in part also because of her.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How did Al Landon win Vermont in 1936? Today the state is solid blue.

That's almost 100 years ago. Obama almost winning MO was only 15 years ago.

I hope you can notice the difference here because you're comparing apples with oranges.

Samof94 in 2000: How did Bush I get over 56% in New Jersey in 1988 just 12 years ago? Now Gore got over 56% in it! How did Dukakis do better in West Virginia than New York? Now Bush's son won WV and yet Gore got over 60% in New York!

[Person Man]

I thought Obama was going to win Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and PROBABLY Virginia. It was nuts when he won Florida. Then North Carolina. Then Indiana. I really thought that Missouri was going to flip after Florida. Based on how 2000 and 2004 went, I was expecting that Obama would have won by 2 or 3.

[jamestroll]

Things CHANGE!

But interesting video to see in hindsight. Can't believe how old it looks.

Missouri's  "bellwether" status in 2008 was a FLAT OUT LIE!!!!! It only went for the "winner" in the election of 2000 due to the electoral college.  It was already clearly trending right in 2000/2004.

Missouri was not, and still is not to be honest, ideologically that right wing.

Missouri was so close in 2008 because

1) Obama invested heavily in it.

2) 2008 was the last thing that the yellow dog/conservadems were alive in enough force. They may have voted for Shrub in 2000 and 2004 but continued to vote democratic down ballot, but  in 2008 they voted more Democratic due to economic circumstances. Their OFFSPRING may have been open to Democrats in 2012 and 2016, but did not have the same loyalty.

3) Obama had record turn out and margins (at the time) in St Louis city, St. Louis County, and Jackson County. It just was not enough to off set the rural trend. And back then, the outer suburbs of Platte and St. Charles were much to the right of the state.

Jay Nixon and all statewide Democrats except Lt Gov won due to local politics, economic circumstances, and honestly voting for Obama was a bridge to far many rural Missourians.

By 2012 the Democrats did worse in the governors race but Nixon, et al were re-elected due to being uncontroversial and popular incumbents.

By 2016, Drumpf being a glove fit for Missouri, strong adverse reaction to Ferguson, MO, and the states sheer demographics made it go hard right.

It trended a little left in 2020, and expect it to trend more significantly left in 2024 but will not be competitive.

Edit: I would also like to add that, while I am not sure How Much Impact This Had... right before the election Catherine Hanaway announced a potential terrorism funding case from MUSLIMS in the St. Louis area.  Many suspected at the time it was announced at that time to influence the election. Considering Obama lost the state by 0.1% and trust me.. Missouri is not exactly a friendly place to MUSLIMS... it may had an impact.  

A few years later, the case was proven to be all BS. I always knew it was BS

Note that Catherine Hanaway was quite a partisan, and was the GOP Nominee who lost to Robin Carnahan for Secretary of State in 2008.

[Samof94]

How did Al Landon win Vermont in 1936? Today the state is solid blue.

That's almost 100 years ago. Obama almost winning MO was only 15 years ago.

I hope you can notice the difference here because you're comparing apples with oranges.

True.
Also, nearly all 1936 voters are dead.

[Brittain33]

Obama overperformed in every state bordering Illinois except Kentucky in addition to it being a closer state then.

[MarkD]

I'll point out some of the same information as jamespol did above, but I'll discuss more of the details.

Jay Nixon won the Governor's race by nearly 19 points.
Democrat Robin Carnahan won the SoS race by 26 points.
Republican-turned-Democrat Chris Koster won the Atty. Gen. race by nearly 6 points.
Democrat Clint Zweifel won the Treasurer's race by by over 3 points.
Democrat Sam Page (now the C.E. of St. Louis County) lost the Lt. Gov.'s race by under 3 points.

And yes, even in that election, there were still tens of thousands of rural conservadem voters that have since turned into loyal Republicans. Even though Republicans had a majority in the state House, there were still several conservadem state reps elected from rural districts.
So there may have been a kind of reverse-coattail effect going on.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It actually makes a lot of sense if you think about it. Missouri is a mixture of both the midwest and the south. Obama absolutely blew McCain out of the water in the midwest which is why it became so narrow. However, the shallow south (Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky) trended towards McCain. As a result, Obama managed to eat up almost all of Bush's margin, but McCain stood strong enough in culturally southern parts of the state to survive the onslaught just enough to eeke it out by around 4k votes.

[Mr. Smith]

Why didn't he is the better question? The state was a bellwether after all and St. Louis was hurt greatly by Bush, along with Columbia being the perfect college town.

And then Indiana, a Strong R state was in play and flipped...left of North-freaking-Carolina...

So why, why didn't Missouri flip?

[Pres Mike]

Missouri is a swing state, historically going to the nationally winner. So a better question is, why didn't Obama win it?

The answer? Because Missouri whites vote more like Southern whites than Midwest whites. Not 100% but closer to Mississipi than Michigan.

I have a question myself. Had Hillary or Biden won Midwestern whites at Obama levels would they flip Missouri? Probably not considering the decline of St. Louis

[TDAS04]

Why did Carter nearly win Oklahoma?

[Ragnaroni]

Its called "the most severe recession since 1929"
It tends to make people vote

[Mr. Illini]

Obama overperformed in every state bordering Illinois except Kentucky in addition to it being a closer state then.

This is an underrated component of it. Obama did very well in the Midwest because he is a Midwesterner.

Things have gotten more polarized since then, but we do still see these regional advantages to some extent with Trump and Biden.