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February 26, 2021, 04:44:01 PM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Will there be any Democratic senators left representing... (search mode)
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Question: The old Confederacy, sans Virginia?
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Total Voters: 50

Author Topic: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...  (Read 1676 times)
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Posts: 2,750
United States

« on: December 09, 2019, 01:50:58 PM »
« edited: December 09, 2019, 01:55:33 PM by Jeff Sessions Hack »

Lean yes.  They aren't favored in any one race, but between NC/GA they are more likely than not to flip one out of the 3 seats (probably NC if Trump loses, GA-Special Runoff if Trump wins).  They also have like a 20% chance in Texas (and some potential for it to be less correlated with what happens in NC/GA because of the state's different demographics) and as of today Moore is still running in the AL primary.  

You should not count on Moore winning the primary.

Anyone who thinks Moore will win the primary at this point is stupid.

Even if I think that Jones is the clear underdog and that his chances of being reelected are no better than 25%, it is very clear that a signficant segment of Trump voters are very open to voting for a democrat when the democrat in question is a white old(er) man (Manchin, Tester, Brown, JBE, Bullock, Peterson, Brindisi are the  best living examples).    

Kander and Orman arenít that old. Tongue But yeah, itís a shame because we could easily lose the Senate in 2020 or 2022 because of those voters.

(As for AL, I agree that Jones is the underdog, but heís definitely more likely to beat Tuberville than Byrne or even Sessions.)

you mean he will have a 0.01% chance instead of a 0.001% chance?

Probably slightly more likely than not that there wonít be any, but honestly, even if thatís the case, it will only be for two years. Thereís no way in hell Republicans hold the GA seat in a Trump midterm, and even in a Biden midterm it would be vulnerable.

This is flat-out dumb.
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