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March 03, 2021, 03:09:46 AM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Will there be any Democratic senators left representing... (search mode)
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Poll
Question: The old Confederacy, sans Virginia?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 50

Author Topic: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...  (Read 1692 times)
UncleSam
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,855


« on: December 09, 2019, 01:18:29 PM »

Going to say yes because...

NC has about a 35% chance of flipping

Both GA seats have about a 35% chance of flipping (could be higher or lower pending the candidate)

TX has about a 15% chance of flipping

AL has about a 5% chance of NOT flipping

In terms of probability, it seems likely (a 78% chance) that at least one of these will flip (though I admit this is a bit of a flawed approach to this problem).
Senate races are not independent outcomes. Even if your ascribed probabilities are reflective of reality, this approach to calculating an overall probability of at least one flipping (or Alabama not flipping) is not valid. The actual chance, given these individual chances, is probably closer to a coin toss.
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