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January 15, 2021, 11:47:06 PM
News: Chaos in the capitol: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=422360

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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Will there be any Democratic senators left representing... (search mode)
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Question: The old Confederacy, sans Virginia?
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Author Topic: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...  (Read 1641 times)
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Posts: 11,773

« on: December 08, 2019, 09:04:01 PM »

They probably have at least a 1/5 or 1/4 chance in four races-the two Georgia races, Texas and North Carolina (this one being a pure tossup), and a very slight chance in Alabama. The odds of getting 1 of these 5 races are probably over 50% (even with the outcomes are correlated), despite Democrats not being clear favorites in any races. So my answer is yes.
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Posts: 11,773

« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2019, 04:05:19 AM »

Lean yes.  They aren't favored in any one race, but between NC/GA they are more likely than not to flip one out of the 3 seats (probably NC if Trump loses, GA-Special Runoff if Trump wins).  They also have like a 20% chance in Texas (and some potential for it to be less correlated with what happens in NC/GA because of the state's different demographics) and as of today Moore is still running in the AL primary.   

You should not count on Moore winning the primary.

Tbh I agree with you there, Moore's chances are very small, but it is typical Atlas to think he has a significant chance.
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