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March 02, 2021, 09:52:30 AM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Rate UT-04 for 2020
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Poll
Question: Which party will win Utah's 4th congressional district in 2020?
#1
Safe D
 
#2
Likely D
 
#3
Lean D
 
#4
Tilt D/Tossup
 
#5
Tilt R/Tossup
 
#6
Lean R
 
#7
Likely R
 
#8
Safe R
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 56

Author Topic: Rate UT-04 for 2020  (Read 634 times)
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« on: December 09, 2019, 02:10:11 PM »

This district has a PVI of R+13. Currently represented by Democrat Ben McAdams, UT-04 consists of a portion of Salt Lake City in addition to a strip south of SLC. In 2012, Romney won this district by 40%. In 2016, Trump won this district by 14%.

Republican challengers include Kathleen Anderson, Kim Coleman, and Daniel Hemmert.

Recent Results
2018: D +0.3
2016: R +12.5
2014: R +3.3
2012: D +0.3
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We Live in Black and White
SvenTC
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« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2019, 02:15:55 PM »

Tilt D and the likeliest hold of all of our red districts. I was on the ground here and people wildly underestimate how quickly SLC is rocketing left.
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gracile
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« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2019, 02:23:21 PM »

Tossup/Tilt D. I can see McAdams benefiting a lot from Trumpís relative unpopularity with Mormons, and this seatís tendency to vote for Democrats in his mold. I actually think he will be the vulnerable incumbent that will outrun the Democratic presidential candidate the most.
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АndriуValeriovich
andjey
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« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2019, 02:29:51 PM »

Lean D. The least likely red district, represented by Democrat, to flip
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2019, 02:45:26 PM »

Tilt R. Not sure why people are so confident about McAdams winning. In this case, it's pretty clear why the district trended so Democratic.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2019, 03:22:36 PM »

Lean R. Why do so many people think a district (also the state as a whole) where Trump is overwhelmingly likely to improve his margin is more likely to vote for a Democrat in the House who won by <1% in a wave midterm? Apparently all a district needs for a Democrat to win are suburbs that "are zooming to the left"?
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We Live in Black and White
SvenTC
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« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2019, 03:23:06 PM »

Tilt R. Not sure why people are so confident about McAdams winning. In this case, it's pretty clear why the district trended so Democratic.

Yeah, SLC generally becoming vast miles more blue, something which was happening even without the influence of Trump but which has been accelerated by his presidency.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2019, 03:28:51 PM »

Likely R. Without Evan McMullin on the ballot, Trump will win the district by 20+ points. Also, McAdams only won by about a fourth of a point last year, and I expect 2020 to be a significantly less blue year than 2018.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2019, 03:33:01 PM »

Tilt or Lean D (voted Lean D). This one wonít be as easy for Republicans as conventional wisdom might suggest, and Trump isnít going to do particularly well here anyway. This is a district thatís only going to become less favorable to Republicans going forward.
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306
Tintrlvr
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« Reply #9 on: December 09, 2019, 03:34:41 PM »

Likely R. Without Evan McMullin on the ballot, Trump will win the district by 20+ points. Also, McAdams only won by about a fourth of a point last year, and I expect 2020 to be a significantly less blue year than 2018.

We certainly don't know yet whether there will be an Evan McMullin on the ballot or not.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #10 on: December 09, 2019, 03:52:59 PM »

Lean D

Trump is not a great shape with mormons and McAdams is probably favoured as a ''check and balance'' on Trump
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #11 on: December 09, 2019, 07:38:57 PM »

Tilt or Lean D (voted Lean D). This one wonít be as easy for Republicans as conventional wisdom might suggest, and Trump isnít going to do particularly well here anyway. This is a district thatís only going to become less favorable to Republicans going forward.

Pretty much this. While this district will almost certainly vote for Trump again next year, I suspect that it will be by an underwhelming margin. Moreover, Salt Lake County, as has been pointed out on here, is becoming more Democratic, and this district will become more unfriendly to Republicans down the road. Nevertheless, McAdams is by no means safe, and will have to fight to secure reelection. This seat, along with those of Horn, Cunningham, Torres-Small, and Golden, are among the most likely to flip back to Republicans even in the event of a Trump defeat nationwide.
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Roblox
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« Reply #12 on: December 09, 2019, 07:43:03 PM »

Tilt or Lean D (voted Lean D). This one wonít be as easy for Republicans as conventional wisdom might suggest, and Trump isnít going to do particularly well here anyway. This is a district thatís only going to become less favorable to Republicans going forward.

Pretty much this. While this district will almost certainly vote for Trump again next year, I suspect that it will be by an underwhelming margin. Moreover, Salt Lake County, as has been pointed out on here, is becoming more Democratic, and this district will become more unfriendly to Republicans down the road. Nevertheless, McAdams is by no means safe, and will have to fight to secure reelection. This seat, along with those of Horn, Cunningham, Torres-Small, and Golden, are among the most likely to flip back to Republicans even in the event of a Trump defeat nationwide.

Also Brindisi. Trump +16 seat.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #13 on: December 09, 2019, 08:27:53 PM »

Anyway I think the best numbers to expect in Utah are probably 08 Mccain numbers.
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jimmie
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« Reply #14 on: December 09, 2019, 09:07:10 PM »

Lean Democrat. McAdams wins by 2 to 4%.

Most McMullin voters in Salt Lake County generally are very open to Democrats down the  ballot.

This district has been weird all decade.

2012: Everyone expected Matheson to lose in the Romney wave. Matheson won.

2014: Everyone expected Love to landslide in the GOP wave but Owens did impressively well.

2016: Everyone expected a close race but Love landslide Owners.

2018: Most expected Love to win but McAdams upsetted.
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Sen. Mark Meadows
Haley/Ryan
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« Reply #15 on: December 09, 2019, 09:24:57 PM »

Why is everyone acting like this is a SLC only district?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #16 on: December 09, 2019, 10:35:45 PM »

Tilt or Lean D (voted Lean D). This one wonít be as easy for Republicans as conventional wisdom might suggest, and Trump isnít going to do particularly well here anyway. This is a district thatís only going to become less favorable to Republicans going forward.

Pretty much this. While this district will almost certainly vote for Trump again next year, I suspect that it will be by an underwhelming margin. Moreover, Salt Lake County, as has been pointed out on here, is becoming more Democratic, and this district will become more unfriendly to Republicans down the road. Nevertheless, McAdams is by no means safe, and will have to fight to secure reelection. This seat, along with those of Horn, Cunningham, Torres-Small, and Golden, are among the most likely to flip back to Republicans even in the event of a Trump defeat nationwide.

Also Brindisi. Trump +16 seat.

This is true. I forgot about Brindisi.
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OBD
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« Reply #17 on: December 10, 2019, 01:05:56 PM »

Tossup/Tilt D. Wonder if the Utah GOP tries to crack SLC even more in 2020, or concedes this district to the Dems. Once Trump is out of office, this seat will probably shift back to it's Republican roots, though.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #18 on: December 10, 2019, 01:57:55 PM »
« Edited: December 10, 2019, 02:01:47 PM by Tartarus Sauce »

Lean R. Why do so many people think a district (also the state as a whole) where Trump is overwhelmingly likely to improve his margin is more likely to vote for a Democrat in the House who won by <1% in a wave midterm? Apparently all a district needs for a Democrat to win are suburbs that "are zooming to the left"?

It literally split its ticket for a Democrat while Romney was crushing by 40% in 2012, just how much do you think Trumpís going to improve his margin by (and itís not even a guarantee that he will)? Mia Love actually underperformed Trumpís margin in 2016 (albeit with a much better topline performance). While it only narrowly flipped Dem in a Dem wave, it also only narrowly flipped Republican in a Republican wave.

This district is a serious contender for being the least connected to national environment in 2020 if its past is any indicator.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #19 on: December 10, 2019, 02:18:57 PM »

Lean R. Why do so many people think a district (also the state as a whole) where Trump is overwhelmingly likely to improve his margin is more likely to vote for a Democrat in the House who won by <1% in a wave midterm? Apparently all a district needs for a Democrat to win are suburbs that "are zooming to the left"?

It literally split its ticket for a Democrat while Romney was crushing by 40% in 2012, just how much do you think Trumpís going to improve his margin by (and itís not even a guarantee that he will)? Mia Love actually underperformed Trumpís margin in 2016 (albeit with a much better topline performance). While it only narrowly flipped Dem in a Dem wave, it also only narrowly flipped Republican in a Republican wave.

This district is a serious contender for being the least connected to national environment in 2020 if its past is any indicator.


Uh yes he will improve his margin lol. It has utah county too which is 51% Trump 33% Mcmuffin and17% Clinton. I predict 55% Trump 39% D and the rest 3rd party. This is similar Mccains 2008 numbers which is what I expect.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #20 on: December 10, 2019, 03:55:16 PM »

Lean D.  Closer to tilt than to likely, I guess.
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