If you had to stake your life on 45 states, which 5 states would remain?

[MT Treasurer]

I’m talking about how the states will vote in the general election (most likely Trump vs. Biden). We’ll just ignore the two CDs here.

It would be really boring with 10 states, so I narrowed it down to 5.

Post your maps. Really curious to see how many Atlas posters would "survive," especially those staking their life on Titanium Tilt R+0.128486% FL.

I guess this would be my map:

Choosing between AZ, GA, ME, MN, and NC was pretty much just Russian roulette (I’m not at all confident about GA voting R, for instance).

[Politician]

Make MI Dem and NC a tossup and it's mine.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Mine would be the same as MTTreasurer's.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

I am duty bound to log back in and post this map, despite trying my best to stay away from Atlas and most of the Internet

[MT Treasurer]

I am duty bound to log back in and post this map, despite trying my best to stay away from Atlas and most of the Internet

I think requesting a permaban in case you’re wrong about any of the 45 states would work in your case.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

I am duty bound to log back in and post this map, despite trying my best to stay away from Atlas and most of the Internet

I think requesting a permaban in case you’re wrong about any of the 45 states would work in your case.

Why not, if the 5 closest states aren't Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, Minnesota, and Colorado (in that order; I expect Trump to win the first four and come close to winning the last) please permaban me from US Election Atlas (dot) org's forum

heck I'd bet $100 to 10 willing Atlas users that my map will turn out to be correct!

[omar04]

My 5 tossups would be AZ,WI,NC,FL,and WI.

[Senator Spark]

[538Electoral]

MI, PA, NH. MN, VA

[BP🌹]

MI, PA, NH. MN, VA

You’d rather stake your life on AZ/WI/FL/GA/ME than VA? That’s quite suicidal.

This guy had Trump winning ME-01 in his prediction.

He's NYC Millennial Minority, but boring.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

MI, PA, NH. MN, VA

You’d rather stake your life on AZ/WI/FL/GA/ME than VA? That’s quite suicidal.

This guy had Trump winning ME-01 in his prediction.

He's NYC Millennial Minority, but boring.

I don't think Trump would win ME-01 though?

Hmm, come to think of it...on second thought...hmmmmmmmmm

[Calthrina950]

I’m talking about how the states will vote in the general election (most likely Trump vs. Biden). We’ll just ignore the two CDs here.

It would be really boring with 10 states, so I narrowed it down to 5.

Post your maps. Really curious to see how many Atlas posters would "survive," especially those staking their life on Titanium Tilt R+0.128486% FL.

I guess this would be my map:

Choosing between AZ, GA, ME, MN, and NC was pretty much just Russian roulette (I’m not at all confident about GA voting R, for instance).

I agree with this, for the most part. Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico are Safe Democratic next year, and Nevada is Likely Democratic-anyone who thinks Trump has a chance of winning the first three states is delusional. Arizona is definitely a tossup, and could go either way. Wisconsin will be close, and Michigan and Pennsylvania will be close. North Carolina and Georgia will be close as well, though I think Trump has a slight advantage in both. However, I also think Trump has a slight advantage in Florida, though I definitely think that the state could go either way. I also believe Florida will take Ohio's place to become the new national bellwether.

[Alben Barkley]

I think you picked the right 5 for sure.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Switch out PA for GA and I’d have yours. I think GA is the biggest question mark of the map, personally. You could make a case for NC too

[Orser67]

If I thought Trump had a 50/50 shot of winning, I'd probably go with OP's map. But I think that Trump has about a one-in-three shot of winning, so:

My next states would be PA, MI, IA, NH, and ME.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

MI, PA, NH. MN, VA

You’d rather stake your life on AZ/WI/FL/GA/ME than VA? That’s quite suicidal.

This guy had Trump winning ME-01 in his prediction.

He's NYC Millennial Minority, but boring.

I don't think Trump would win ME-01 though?

Hmm, come to think of it...on second thought...hmmmmmmmmm

Oh NYCMM, we missed you lol. 

[progressive85]

Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina

[mgop]

ohio, iowa, north carolina, georgia and texas

[Former President tack50]

My personal guess, though I am tempted to switch NH for FL, but I'm still a believer in Titanium R+0.001 Florida The other 4 are locks though.

[Queen Isuelt]

Really depends on the nominee.

I will vote Trump if Klobuchar is not the nominee and vote for Slotkin. Senate I haven’t decided yet.

So my five are Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Pennsylvania.

Arizona, Florida and Georgia will 99% vote republican if they vote for a loon. (Sanders/warren). Pete will get crushed by trump.

Florida is so hard to win for democrats. Minnesota is going to be very tough.

[Roblox]

AZ, WI, MI, PA, and FL. So the exact same as IndyRep lmao.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Really depends on the nominee.

I will vote Trump if Klobuchar is not the nominee and vote for Slotkin. Senate I haven’t decided yet.

So my five are Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Pennsylvania.

Arizona, Florida and Georgia will 99% vote republican if they vote for a loon. (Sanders/warren). Pete will get crushed by trump.

Florida is so hard to win for democrats. Minnesota is going to be very tough.

You think Minnesota is a near-lock for Trump?

[jaichind]

Swap out FL with NH for me.

[Queen Isuelt]

Really depends on the nominee.

I will vote Trump if Klobuchar is not the nominee and vote for Slotkin. Senate I haven’t decided yet.

So my five are Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Pennsylvania.

Arizona, Florida and Georgia will 99% vote republican if they vote for a loon. (Sanders/warren). Pete will get crushed by trump.

Florida is so hard to win for democrats. Minnesota is going to be very tough.

You think Minnesota is a near-lock for Trump?

Definitely.

I was watching an event yesterday with Amy Klobuchar and she was talking about how Democrats have retreated from rural/small town America. She was talking about the 32 counties that voted for Barack Obama/Trump in 16 and how it was similar in Minnesota in 16. She even told Clinton in October that she might need to come to Minnesota as voters she knew were with Klobuchar were backing Trump but the Clinton campaign wanted to stay on offence and win Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. The reason she outperforms other Democrats is because she actively and purposefully campaigns in small/rural counties. Klobuchar was talking about Clay and Polk Counties and she’s the only statewide democrat that has people on the ground and continues to meet Trump voters that tell her they had no choice compared to Clinton.

Klobuchars big point is democrats have stopped campaigning in rural districts and giving republicans a free run. I think this happened in Missouri and Ohio where Democrats became so focused on getting out the vote in urban areas they just forgot about the rural vote. There not just farmers.

Trump will spend big money here and Ilhan Omar is not like in Minnesota outside of the district. You also have a very competitive congressional seats.

Tammy Baldwin, Sherrod Brown and Amy Klobuchar are the Template for democrats to win yet the democratic voter isn’t listening.

[Xing]

I agree with MTTreasurer’s map. While I’m not that confident about states like GA and NH, and I could be convinced to switch one of them with FL, I definitely wouldn’t feel comfortable making any bets about AZ, MI, PA, or WI.