Predict the course of the Democratic Primary as of December, 2019

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Iowa - Pete.
New Hampshire - Warren.
South Carolina - Biden.
Nevada - Warren.

Bernie drops out before Super Tuesday, endorsing Warren.

Biden is virtually eliminated on Super Tuesday as the primary clearly becomes Pete v. Warren.

A few minor candidates like Bloomberg, Steyer, Gabbard, and Patrick stay in just to try to sway the primary to their subjective way.

Pete wins at the contested convention, picking a flawed running mate like Harris or Warren herself.

2020 - Pete/Harris or Warren v. Trump/Pence

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Iowa- Pete
NH- Warren
NV- Bernie
SC- Biden

[rhg2052]

Pete peaks in late December, and stabilizes slightly lower than where he is now.

By Iowa, there are 8 candidates in the race: Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Yang, Gabbard, and Bloomberg.

Warren and Pete take close 1st/2nd in IA. Klobuchar drops out.

Warren and Sanders take close 1st/2nd in NH. Gabbard drops out.

Warren uses the momentum from the first two states to take NV, with Sanders in 2nd.

Biden wins SC, but not by as much as expected after three weeks of 3rd/4th place finishes.

Super Tuesday is all over the place. Biden wins all of the Southern states, and Warren all of the non-Southern states besides Vermont. Many of the Sanders and Buttigieg supporters begin to consolidate around Warren. Bloomberg spends his way to picking up a significant number of delegates and a few second place performances. Yang does alright in some of the larger, more educated states (California, Massachusetts, Virginia) but does not do well enough and drops out.

March 10 sees the race continue to consolidate. Buttigieg continues to underperform and drops out after disappointing performances in Michigan and Missouri.

March 17th (Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Ohio) is Sanders last stand. He drops out and endorses Warren. From this point on, the race is mainly between Biden and Warren, with Bloomberg picking up enough delegates to keep either of them from being a true frontrunner.

The primary becomes more and more contentious, and it becomes clear after the April 28th primaries that we are heading towards a convention that will not be decided on the first ballot.

Biden, Warren, and Bloomberg all stay in until the convention, which is not decided on the first ballot. Superdelegates and Bloomberg delegates swing it to Biden. Progressives are big mad.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Pete peaks in late December, and stabilizes slightly lower than where he is now.

By Iowa, there are 8 candidates in the race: Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Yang, Gabbard, and Bloomberg.

Warren and Pete take close 1st/2nd in IA. Klobuchar drops out.

Warren and Sanders take close 1st/2nd in NH. Gabbard drops out.

Warren uses the momentum from the first two states to take NV, with Sanders in 2nd.

Biden wins SC, but not by as much as expected after three weeks of 3rd/4th place finishes.

Super Tuesday is all over the place. Biden wins all of the Southern states, and Warren all of the non-Southern states besides Vermont. Many of the Sanders and Buttigieg supporters begin to consolidate around Warren. Bloomberg spends his way to picking up a significant number of delegates and a few second place performances. Yang does alright in some of the larger, more educated states (California, Massachusetts, Virginia) but does not do well enough and drops out.

March 10 sees the race continue to consolidate. Buttigieg continues to underperform and drops out after disappointing performances in Michigan and Missouri.

March 17th (Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Ohio) is Sanders last stand. He drops out and endorses Warren. From this point on, the race is mainly between Biden and Warren, with Bloomberg picking up enough delegates to keep either of them from being a true frontrunner.

The primary becomes more and more contentious, and it becomes clear after the April 28th primaries that we are heading towards a convention that will not be decided on the first ballot.

Biden, Warren, and Bloomberg all stay in until the convention, which is not decided on the first ballot. Superdelegates and Bloomberg delegates swing it to Biden. Progressives are big mad.

LOL Bloomberg stays in longer than Sanders than Yang

[GeneralMacArthur]

As if Sanders is ever going to drop out.

His secondary goal in this race, short of winning, is to:

Amass a large bloc of delegates
Whip them up into an anti-DNC frenzy with allegations that progressives are being cheated, that the party is writing right-wing positions into the platform, etc.
Threaten to have them cause a big mess on live television
Blackmail the party into giving into his demands about platform positions and kissing his ass

He'll stick around until the end so that in the late contests, once the nominee has already been decided, people can use him as a protest vote and give him a small but nominal amount of delegates.  Even if he loses the June 6 Virgin Islands Caucus 80-20 that's still one more floor delegate.

I'd say I hope the DNC won't give him what he demands like they did in 2016, since as we saw then he's not actually gonna do a damn thing to stop his supporters from embarrassing the party... but this is Tom Perez we're talking about.

[W]

Iowa - Bernie narrowly, 2nd Buttigieg or Warren, 4th Biden

New Hampshire - Bernie not even close, 2nd Warren, 3rd Buttigieg, 4th Biden

Nevada - Bernie **IF HE WINS THE OTHER 2**, if not Biden, 3rd Warren, 4th Buttigieg

Super Tuesday & beyond really coming down to a 2 horse Biden-Sanders race, not particularly confident in who will win there and beyond but it will be close and contested until at least April or May.

[😥]

IA:
Pete Buttigieg->Elizabeth Warren->Joe Biden->Bernie Sanders

NH:
Bernie Sanders->Joe Biden->Elizabeth Warren->Pete Buttigieg

NV:
Joe Biden->Elizabeth Warren->Bernie Sanders->Pete Buttigieg

SC:
Joe Biden->Bernie Sanders->Elizabeth Warren->Pete Buttigieg