GOP losing the gubernatorial PV

[Epaminondas]

For 8 straight years, from 2009 to 2016, the GOP has received more votes in governor races than Dems.
However in 2017, 2018 and - as appears now - 2019, Democratic candidates have obtained more votes than the GOP.

The last time the Dems were on such a roll was in 2004-2006.

With such powerful trendz™ at work, is it still reasonable to contend that gubernatorial races follow their own local rules?
And could 2020 continue the pattern, given how red the terrain is?

[Orser67]

It's a pretty good reminder that:

a)Most gubernatorial elections take place during mid-terms, and
b)The party holding the presidency has a huge disadvantage during most mid-terms

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That will change in 2022, MI, NV, NM. WI, AZ, IA, IL, NJ and VA, Govs arent term limited.  Even PA, Fetterman can win a 3rd term for Dems. In 2020, Rs can win MT and Dems MO, due to Parsons, an inexperienced Gov on abortion

[Xing]

They'll almost certainly win it in 2020, though.

[Skill and Chance]

It's a pretty good reminder that:

a)Most gubernatorial elections take place during mid-terms, and
b)The party holding the presidency has a huge disadvantage during most mid-terms

Also, odd years particularly lend themselves to localization and slow walking national trends.  Remember, the VA GOP still holds multiple Clinton 2016 seats in each chamber of the state legislature despite (finally, after 3 consecutive cycles of Dem presidential wins) losing the majority.  I think it's fair to say that would not be the case if the legislative elections were held in 2020, and that Beshear would not even come particularly close in KY with Trump at the top of the ballot. 

[Tekken_Guy]

That will change in 2022, MI, NV, NM. WI, AZ, IA, IL, NJ and VA, Govs arent term limited.  Even PA, Fetterman can win a 3rd term for Dems. In 2020, Rs can win MT and Dems MO, due to Parsons, an inexperienced Gov on abortion

Not happening.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

They could lose the popular vote in 2020 too, especially if things go south in NC and MO tightens significantly.

I doubt it. Democrats couldn’t win the popular vote in this class of governors even in 2012 when they were sweeping all the competitive races. You have to go back to 2008 when Democrats were winning blowouts in Missouri, West Virginia, and Montana for them to just barely overcome the deficits coming out of the landslides in Itah, North Dakota and Indiana

[MT Treasurer]

They could lose the popular vote in 2020 too, especially if things go south in NC and MO tightens significantly.

I doubt it. Democrats couldn’t win the popular vote in this class of governors even in 2012 when they were sweeping all the competitive races. You have to go back to 2008 when Democrats were winning blowouts in Missouri, West Virginia, and Montana for them to just barely overcome the deficits coming out of the landslides in Itah, North Dakota and Indiana

Never mind, you’re right. I just realized that Republicans (and not Democrats) won the PV by 2% in 2016, and that was even with the OR special election.

(I do think UT will be a lot closer than in 2016, though.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MO and MT, are gone