Riverside vs Orange, 2020 (user search)
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  Riverside vs Orange, 2020 (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Riverside County voted to the right of Orange County for the first time in 2016, and continued that pattern in 2018 (OC voted for Newsom by 3k votes while Riverside went for Cox). Which is more likely in 2020 to happen in 2020?
#1
Riverside County will vote to the right of Orange County
 
#2
Orange County will vote to the right of Riverside County
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 35

Author Topic: Riverside vs Orange, 2020  (Read 1071 times)
H. Ross Peron
General Mung Beans
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,407
Korea, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -1.91

« on: December 09, 2019, 04:20:29 AM »

If you want to know why, the reason is based in who votes Dem in each county. The Inland Empire democratic party relies very heavily on Hispanics who drop off in off-year elections. While Orange Dems also depend on Hispanics, it is the Asian vote that powered the Blue wave down there in 2018. Asians didn't go as hard for Dems as they did for Clinton, but they mainly stayed blue (outside of local Asian GOP races) and mainly kept their turnout levels proportional to the rest of the population. So OC went blue whereas Riverside whites overpowered their Hispanic neighbors.

Despite the easy answer to 2018, your main question in regards to 2020 is still an interesting one. OC has more voters available to flip blue and has more  people moving in with democratic leanings. Riverside is less flexible. However, Riverside has been Blue for longer then OC, so it has a head start. If dems are able to get Hispanics to vote with higher rates for some reason, that will be felt more in Riverside than in OC.

Makes sense, though I'm still curious: Why did Riverside vote to the right in 2016 in that case?

Riverside County is one of the few areas of the Southern California metroplex with a significant White Working-Class demographic.
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