Riverside vs Orange, 2020

[Libertas Vel Mors]

My main intent here is actually really to ask why, which is why I'm putting this question here. Why are Riverside suburbanites/exurbanites so much less willing to give up their GOP roots than Orange County ones? As an example:

CA-42 vs CA-48 (2012): CA-42 +3 to the right of CA-48

CA-42 vs CA-48 (2016): CA-42 +14 to the right of CA-48

Both are very diverse as well btw. In fact, CA-48 is actually 10 points or so whiter than CA-42, and both districts have similarly high income levels.

So, yeah. Why?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

If you want to know why, the reason is based in who votes Dem in each county. The Inland Empire democratic party relies very heavily on Hispanics who drop off in off-year elections. While Orange Dems also depend on Hispanics, it is the Asian vote that powered the Blue wave down there in 2018. Asians didn't go as hard for Dems as they did for Clinton, but they mainly stayed blue (outside of local Asian GOP races) and mainly kept their turnout levels proportional to the rest of the population. So OC went blue whereas Riverside whites overpowered their Hispanic neighbors.

Despite the easy answer to 2018, your main question in regards to 2020 is still an interesting one. OC has more voters available to flip blue and has more  people moving in with democratic leanings. Riverside is less flexible. However, Riverside has been Blue for longer then OC, so it has a head start. If dems are able to get Hispanics to vote with higher rates for some reason, that will be felt more in Riverside than in OC.

Makes sense, though I'm still curious: Why did Riverside vote to the right in 2016 in that case?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

CA-48 also has a much higher college-educated population. About 53% of people in CA-48 aged 25 and older have a higher degree compared to CA-42 which is about 34%. Having a post-secondary degree has become increasingly correlated to Democratic voting habits, and in 2016 it was one of the most indicative factors of whether an area trended Democratic or Republican.

Why are the Orange County suburbs so much more college educated then the Riverside ones then?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Also CA 48th is a beach district, probably has that wealth and education to swing hard D in 2016.

Well they're pretty similar median income wise, but there is a big education difference.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Also CA 48th is a beach district, probably has that wealth and education to swing hard D in 2016.

Well they're pretty similar median income wise, but there is a big education difference.

CA48 is actually whiter than CA42, it's just that there's a big education gap, and Hispanics don't even come close to matching the white turnout of 42.

Yep, that seems to be the consensus!