Rating of Texas from 1968-1996

[OSR stands with Israel]

Would u say this would be fair rating


1968: Tossup
1972: Safe R
1976: Lean D
1980: Likely R(Reagan margin overall was a surprise)
1984: Safe R
1988: Safe R
1992: Tossup
1996: Lean R(if the Margin was 3-4 points nationally it would be Likely R)

[MIKESOWELL]

I pretty much agree with your list. I thought I remember seeing that most pollsters thought Nixon had the edge in Texas in 1968, with Humphrey carrying it a bit of a surprise even though the LBJ machine was just enough to tip it to him. I guess 1976 could be argued a tossup, considering how much ground the Democrats had to make up from Nixon carrying the state by a 2 to 1 margin.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I pretty much agree with your list. I thought I remember seeing that most pollsters thought Nixon had the edge in Texas in 1968, with Humphrey carrying it a bit of a surprise even though the LBJ machine was just enough to tip it to him. I guess 1976 could be argued a tossup, considering how much ground the Democrats had to make up from Nixon carrying the state by a 2 to 1 margin.

The Wiki article said in 1976 Carter underperformed expectations in Texas and it was expected for 1976 to result in Massive Shifts in the South.

[morgankingsley]

I pretty much agree with your list. I thought I remember seeing that most pollsters thought Nixon had the edge in Texas in 1968, with Humphrey carrying it a bit of a surprise even though the LBJ machine was just enough to tip it to him. I guess 1976 could be argued a tossup, considering how much ground the Democrats had to make up from Nixon carrying the state by a 2 to 1 margin.

The Wiki article said in 1976 Carter underperformed expectations in Texas and it was expected for 1976 to result in Massive Shifts in the South.

If that were the case I would say likely D then

[Mr.Phips]

Would u say this would be fair rating


1968: Tossup
1972: Safe R
1976: Lean D
1980: Likely R(Reagan margin overall was a surprise)
1984: Safe R
1988: Safe R
1992: Tossup
1996: Lean R(if the Margin was 3-4 points nationally it would be Likely R)

1988 was actually considered only Lean R with a long shot chance of Dukakis carrying it due to Lloyd Bentsen.

[One Term Floridian]

Had I been an onlooker for all of the presidential elections in TX since Kennedy/Johnson in 1960:

1960: Lean D
1964: Titanium D
1968: Toss-up
1972: Titanium R
1976: Lean D
1980: Likely R
1984: Titanium R
1988: Likely R
1992: Tilt D (because of Perot/HW split)
1996: Toss-up
2000: Titanium R
2004: Titanium R
2008: Safe R
2012: Safe R
2016: Safe R
2020: Likely R for now