The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

2020: Pete Buttigieg (South Bend Mayor) or Andrew Yang (businessman)
2016: Ted Cruz (Private Lawyer, Fmr. Texas Solicitor General running for Senate)
2012: Bachmann and Herman Cain [this year was harder to do]
2008: Barack Obama (State Senator running for Senate)
2004: Wesley Clark (NATO commander)
2000: Alan Keyes (State Department Assistant Undersecretary)

For 2012, did anyone really see Newt Gingrich running? In 2008, was he on anyone's radar? That was a real blast from the past.

P.S. I knew Buttigieg would run and do well But then I also had a thousand bucks waiting for me if Kamala was the nominee

Gingrich was deemed very likely to run in 2008, but he admitted afterward that his lane was taken and if he ran he pretty much wouldn't have a shot due to people like Huckabee drowning him out. I don't think 2012 was much of a stretch for him at all really.

I worked for a guy who worked for Newt in '12, and he said that they barely were able to get paid because Newt's polling grew exponentially faster than his fundraising did. I remember my grandma wanted him to run in 2008, and she ended up voting for him in 2012 after all.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Rubio asked about his future after his current term in the Senate ends:

https://floridianpress.com/2020/09/rubio-may-have-signaled-a-future-run-for-president/

Rubio’s “I hope to have the opportunity to continue doing it (public service) in some form or fashion down the road” remark appears to have left the door open for either another run for Senate or a more probable run for President.

“I enjoy very much being in public office because I wake up every morning, I can see something in the world that I think needs to be addressed, and I’m in a place where I can actually try to do something about it. I’ve enjoyed doing that a lot, and I hope to have the opportunity to continue doing it in some form or fashion down the road.” 

Rubio has told close friends and supporters that running for president is not off the table looking down the road,  but that running for re-election to the Senate would be a little bit of a stretch.

Rubio would be in a better position to run as a sitting Senator than a former one. Plus in a Biden midterm, he'd be strongly favored to hold his seat so it's not like that would be a concern.

Disagree. He's going to be weak in 2022, especially if Trump is reelected. The smart thing to do from his perspective is to retire and spend all of 2023 campaigning.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Presumably this doesn't really mean anything, since NH is just one of many swing states he's visiting, but in the interests of documenting every NH trip, Pence will be in NH on Wednesday:

https://twitter.com/VPComDir/status/1318169584336240641

Florida's probably going to be early enough in the primary season to be relevant too.

I think he's just here to carry the state for Trump. Florida will be DeSantis country in 2024, and Pence wouldn't have much of shot here even if DeSantis stayed out because other, lesser known Floridian candidates (particularly Scott, Rubio, and Gaetz) will likely be in the mix in that scenario.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Can we sticky this so we don't get buried in the megathreads madness?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1330302111280746497

He’s going to announce at an Inauguration Day “welcome home” rally in WPB, completely stealing Joes thunder.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

He's not gonna run.

I think he will run, launching his campaign on or around inauguration day, but will drop out in 2022/2023 for health/legal reasons and hand the keys over to DeSantis (even if he technically endorses Pence first). The real purpose of his campaign is to act as a sort of "leader of the opposition" and keep the party on the message, and everyone but Trump himself knows that.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I have a pretty shrewd idea that most Republicans think dihydrogen monoxide is a hoax made up by either the lizard people or the Jews.

Have you ever met a Republican? They’re obsessed with Israel. Try harder.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Kemp would sink quicker than DeSantis against Trump. Youngkin would at least be able to put up a credible fight and position himself for 2028.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Kemp would sink quicker than DeSantis against Trump. Youngkin would at least be able to put up a credible fight and position himself for 2028.

wonder why no consideration for Abbott

He's never struck me as presidential material TBH.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Kemp would sink quicker than DeSantis against Trump. Youngkin would at least be able to put up a credible fight and position himself for 2028.

You mean Youngkin can get to the 3-4% Tim Scott hovers around. How does he get past that, though? That's about the size of the party that actually wants a genial friendly Trump alternative. The fact that Trump's...Trump is a selling point, not a liability, to actual primary voters.

I don't know, I think Youngkin can easily get to 10% against Trump. I don't think he goes much further beyond that, but I think he can pull in at least a ~100-200 delegates and place second to Trump in the convention count.

And I don't even like Youngkin all that much for that matter.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Oh my god Vivek's face, he looks like a scared little boy

Probably because he's afraid Big Fat Fatty will sit on him.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Was Mad Dog Mattis floated as a candidate in 2016? I don't recall that.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Probably running as a Democrat with the option of being Cornel’s VP after she fizzles out against Joe.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

https://twitter.com/tylerpager/status/1758521928552227143?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4t...

If true then No Labels is done.