The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Roll Roons]

I think this article is very interesting and I do agree that you can figure out most of the major players 5 years out — and things get even more clear after the election.

I would point out that each of the past few elections brought someone who wouldn’t have been noticed 5 years prior being a decently sized player in the election. Here’s a list:

2020: Pete Buttigieg (South Bend Mayor) or Andrew Yang (businessman)
2016: Ted Cruz (Private Lawyer, Fmr. Texas Solicitor General running for Senate)
2012: Bachmann and Herman Cain [this year was harder to do]
2008: Barack Obama (State Senator running for Senate)
2004: Wesley Clark (NATO commander)
2000: Alan Keyes (State Department Assistant Undersecretary)

I could go on and on, but I think we should also expect at least one person who is WAY off of our radar to make an impact in the race along with the usual suspects in this article.

Here's a rundown on 2024 maneuvering, that doesn't really break any big news, but is still an interesting read:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/01/03/2024-presidential-election-candidates-091055

I really wouldn't think of Alan Keyes as a "major" player in 2000. Plus for 2016 you're forgetting the biggest one. Yeah he was famous but who actually would have thought he'd go anywhere?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/mattkatz00/status/1259915242399764480

Yeah..... that's not gonna happen. Even Republicans hated his guts by the end of his second term. But I do wonder how things would have been without Bridgegate.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/politics/larry-hogan-maryland-book-tour-2024-campaign.html

Hogan has a memoir coming out soon with a virtual tour of sorts.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/12/larry-hogan-2024-republicans-358051

As rumors swirl that Larry Hogan is eyeing a run for president in 2024, the Republican governor of Maryland has some advice for the post-Trump GOP: Be more like me.

“I don't know what the future holds in November, but I know that the Republican Party is going to be looking at what happens after President [Donald] Trump and whether that's in four months or four years,” Hogan said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”


That, Hogan argued, should include becoming more inclusive.


“I think they're going to be looking to, ‘How do we go about becoming a bigger tent party?’” he told host Chuck Todd.

Hogan pointed to his 2018 reelection as the model, when he won in Maryland, a deeply Democratic state by twelve points. He also cited the fact he won votes from suburban women, Democrats and Independents, the latter two groups being groups that appear to have ditched President Trump.

I love this man so much. I don't care if he has minimal chance in a GOP primary. I believe in him, and think he would make an amazing president.

[Roll Roons]

Can anyone see Senator John Thune (R-SD) making a legitimate run for it?
He'd only be 63 by 2024 and he's majority WHIP right now.

Thune will probably take over after McConnell

Yeah. I think he could have been a very strong contender in 2012 or 2016, but his moment for the presidency has likely passed.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics/cardi-b-aoc-endorsement-trnd/index.html

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1294623988656660481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%...

That's not even an attempt at a denial.

I just cannot fathom how that song is popular. Cardi B sucks.

[Roll Roons]

Rubio asked about his future after his current term in the Senate ends:

https://floridianpress.com/2020/09/rubio-may-have-signaled-a-future-run-for-president/

Rubio’s “I hope to have the opportunity to continue doing it (public service) in some form or fashion down the road” remark appears to have left the door open for either another run for Senate or a more probable run for President.

“I enjoy very much being in public office because I wake up every morning, I can see something in the world that I think needs to be addressed, and I’m in a place where I can actually try to do something about it. I’ve enjoyed doing that a lot, and I hope to have the opportunity to continue doing it in some form or fashion down the road.” 

Rubio has told close friends and supporters that running for president is not off the table looking down the road,  but that running for re-election to the Senate would be a little bit of a stretch.

Rubio would be in a better position to run as a sitting Senator than a former one. Plus in a Biden midterm, he'd be strongly favored to hold his seat so it's not like that would be a concern.

[Roll Roons]

Ummmmm....

Meghan Markle harbors serious ambitions to run for president of the United States, according to a report.

After the Duchess of Sussex and husband Prince Harry dumped royal duties with their historic Megxit this year, the 39-year-old former "Suits" star now has her eye on the White House, a close friend told Vanity Fair.

"One of the reasons she was so keen not to give up her American citizenship was so she had the option to go into politics," the unidentified friend told the mag.

"I think if Meghan and Harry ever gave up their titles she would seriously consider running for president," the friend added of rumors of a 2024 run.

Her biographer, Omid Scobie, also previously claimed that the former actress "has her eyes set on the US presidency."

"Meghan is the embodiment of the American dream. One day we may see Meghan become president," the author of "Finding Freedom: Harry, Meghan and the Making of a Modern Royal Family" previously told a documentary, Vanity Fair said.

[...]

At this point, who the hell even cares.

[Roll Roons]

Haley campaigned today in Iowa for Ashley Hinson and Marianette Miller-Meeks:

https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1318995037884157957

https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1319020891783790593

[Roll Roons]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/chris-christie-trump-2024-presidential-run

Throw on top of this his involvement in the GA senate runoff and his new ad advocating for mask wearing...

Atlas is gonna say he'd make NJ competitive

By Atlas you mean a certain other D-NJ avatar, and maybe some I-GA avatar(s)?

Christie is done and won't go anywhere.

I've said this before, but without Bridgegate, I really think he would have won the nomination in 2016 and probably beaten Hillary.

But now he's old news.

[Roll Roons]

Senior Trump officials are preparing to set up a policy group once Trump leaves office, which’ll be something of a landing spot for Trump alumni.  And Trump himself is said to be supportive.  Whether you take this as suggesting it’s more or less likely that he’s going to run for prez again is up to interpretation, but I think it’s further evidence that he’s not going to legally launch another campaign imminently:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/22/trump-advisers-launch-policy-group-449886

Senior advisers to President Donald Trump are preparing to launch a nonprofit group to promote the president’s policies once he leaves office, creating a landing spot for former Trump officials after the White House changes hands.

White House domestic policy adviser Brooke Rollins and National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow have been putting the organization together and are expected to be heavily involved once it gets off the ground. National Security adviser Robert O’Brien and former Energy Secretary Rick Perry are also among those likely to play roles.

Word of the yet-to-be-named outfit comes as top White House officials plot their futures and Trump’s post-presidential political apparatus gradually comes into focus, featuring a new PAC and potentially other entities as well. The new nonprofit group is expected to become a destination for many of the administration’s top policy advisers and Cabinet officials.
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“The president is very enthusiastic about this,” Kudlow said in a Tuesday interview.

So basically a Trumpian version of Organizing for Action.

[Roll Roons]

Couldn't he file for reelection in January/February 2021 and then withdraw in December 2022? If he doesn't intend to run again, he won't out himself as a lame duck before his presidency even starts.

[Roll Roons]

I don’t really believe her, since she spent so much of 2020 visiting early primary states, but Noem claims she’s not going to run for president in 2024:

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2021/01/06/gov-noem-run-president-2024-shes-finally-answering-directly/6571470002/

"No," the governor said Wednesday afternoon after being asked if she will run for president in 2024, during a trip to Sioux Falls.  "I am focused on staying here in South Dakota."

This early on, they always deny interest. If she's in, she won't announce until after the 2022 midterms.

[Roll Roons]

Rubio on 2024: “I haven’t made a decision yet.”  Says he doesn’t know if he’s running for prez, and if Trump runs “it would be a factor”, but wouldn’t necessarily preclude him running as well:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/398504-potential-donald-trump-challenges-shadow-marco-rubios-next-move

“Donald Trump is the most prominent, the most influential Republican in the country. Anyone who’s running for President, and I haven’t made a decision yet, I have an election in 2022, as a Republican would have to take into account that the most prominent, most well-known Republican in the country would run again,” Rubio said. “Of course it would be a factor.”

“It would make a difference for anybody. It would certainly be a factor. But I’m not going to get into the political gamesmanship,” Rubio said.

On the other hand, in a separate interview, he said that running for Senate is a “six year contract”.  Which, if we’re taking him seriously on that, would seem to preclude a 2024 presidential run:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/399140-six-year-contract-rubio

“Oh, I’m running for reelection,” Rubio assured Hewitt, who was worried Rubio would not in light of the decision of Ohio Sen. Rob Portman to stand down next year.

“I’ll tell you this: When you’re running for reelection in the Senate, you’re signing a six-year contract. Which means that for the next six years of your life, you’re committing to doing this job.”

I'd still take any statements made this early with a huge grain of salt.

[Roll Roons]

Adam Kinzinger is starting a new organization called Country First:
https://www.country1st.com/

I wonder if he could be worth watching as a possible dark horse contender.

[Roll Roons]

What even is Hawley's appeal?

[Roll Roons]

Haley: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538573-haley-breaks-with-trump-we-shouldnt-have-followed-him

[Roll Roons]

Asa Hutchinson says he won't won't support a Trump 2024 campaign

Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Sunday that he would not support a run by former President Donald Trump for reelection in 2024.

"He's got a good family ... and they love America," the Republican told host Dana Bash on CNN's "State of the Union." "But I would not support him for reelection in 2024."


"He's going to have a voice, as former presidents do, but there's many voices in our party," he went on. Trump "should not define our future."


Hutchinson said in January that he wanted the Trump administration to end, but stopped short of calling for the former president's resignation. He also called a second set of impeachment proceedings "unworkable."

The governor's nephew, an Arkansas state senator, has since announced he is leaving the Republican Party due to the direction the GOP has taken.

Hutchinson called on the GOP to pivot away from Trump's perspective and toward "a different voice for the future of our party."

"He will only define our party if we let him define our party," Hutchinson said Sunday. "I think it's fine for CPAC to invite former President Trump to speak, but how about the other voices? Senator [Bill] Cassidy from Louisiana, those that have different points of view."

"That's what we've got to embrace," he went on. Trump "has a loud megaphone, but we have to have many different voices, and in my view, we can't let him define us for the future because that would just further divide our country and it would hurt our Republican Party."

Tfw the Governor of Arkansas is saner than a Senator from Wisconsin.

[Roll Roons]

Trump exploring a black or female running mate:

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1367186226638450697

Watch him pick Mia Love or Will Hurd lol.

In all seriousness, he'd probably go with Kristi Noem or Tim Scott. Maybe Marsha Blackburn.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/04/rick-scott-maga-473548

Rick Scott, despite embracing MAGA, is failing to gain traction

He reminds me a lot of Scott Walker. A far right governor of a swing state that keeps winning state elections and gets a lot of media attention, but the national rank and file just don't care for.

I doubt he gets anywhere. He's just so awkward and uncharismatic.

[Roll Roons]

Hey, remember that war we fought in 1776 because we didn't want to be ruled by British royals?

[Roll Roons]

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-capitol-siege-coronavirus-pandemic-elections-3d9480c897abcc9ae6a2388cf27b29ce

Hagerty said he met with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida this week. They even talked about the decision Trump is facing over whether to run again in 2024 — Hagerty said Trump is focused on the 2022 elections and hasn’t yet decided whether to run.

 low key hagerty would make for a good running mate for just about any nominee

He brings nothing new to the table. He's a fairly generic middle-aged white guy from a very safe state. I know a lot of the same applies to Pence, but at least he helped shore up Trump's standing with Evangelicals. Presumably the 2024 nominee won't have Trump's initial issues with them.

Whoever the GOP ticket ends up being, my guess is that it won't be two white men.

[Roll Roons]

As of now, the only Republicans that have an over 5-10% chance of getting the nomination are Trump and DeSantis. I've been thinking about who would be a good running mate for them. If Trump is the nominee, I personally wish he not pick DeSantis because he would be too useful in Florida. This might be a bit of an unpopular opinion but I think Ben Carson would be a safe pick for Trump. He has been very loyal to Trump, stays out of controversy, and has a lot of appeal to the Religious Right and would get voters fired up over abortion. Any other ideas I have would be me injecting too much of my own beliefs.

DeSantis being the nominee opens up many more opportunities for running mate but right now I can't think of many people he would seriously entertain. Personally, I think the best choice would be a good representative from a safe Republican area like Paul Gosar.

You're joking, right?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Kevinbooker99/status/1383517997252239371
Please clap!

[Roll Roons]

As I've said, I'll believe a Trump run when I see it. I feel like he'll keep teasing but never actually get in.