The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread (user search)
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  The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread  (Read 162653 times)
brucejoel99
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« on: December 28, 2019, 02:43:30 AM »


It'll be so delicious to see all the right-wing nuts bursting their blood vessels (& their nuts) over President AOC.
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brucejoel99
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E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2019, 02:59:58 PM »


Yes.
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brucejoel99
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E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2020, 03:14:26 PM »

Haley resigns from the board of Boeing over their Coronavirus bailout bid:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/20/818909351/nikki-haley-resigns-from-boeings-board-over-coronavirus-bailout-bid

Quote
According to a company filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, "Ambassador Haley informed the Company that, as a matter of philosophical principle, she does not believe that the Company should seek support from the Federal Government, and therefore decided to resign from the Board."

In her letter of resignation, Haley wrote, "As we encounter the Covid-19 crisis, Boeing, along with many other companies, face another major set of challenges. I want to be part of helping the company as it pushes through it. However, the board and executive team are going in a direction I cannot support.

"While I know cash is tight, that is equally true for numerous other industries and for millions of small businesses. I cannot support a move to lean on the federal government for a stimulus or bailout that prioritizes our company over others and relies on taxpayers to guarantee our financial position. I have long held strong convictions that this is not the role of government."

Widely viewed as a future potential GOP presidential candidate, Haley's decision could be a way to insulate herself from future charges that she supported a taxpayer-funded bailout of a private company.


Yeah, if nothing else, this story reveals her political career isn't over. She simply can't sit on a board that's asking for a $60B government bailout & expect to be taken seriously as a Republican presidential candidate.
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brucejoel99
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2020, 01:05:08 PM »


Little Marco has neither the personality nor charisma to win a GOP presidential primary.
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brucejoel99
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E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2020, 08:42:41 PM »


Ew.
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brucejoel99
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2020, 10:18:43 PM »

Probably doesn't need to be mentioned, but whoever Biden picks as his running mate is going to get a lot of attention and could be a major figure in the 2024 Democratic Primary.

VP's are (seen as) the natural successors, after all.
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brucejoel99
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E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2020, 03:25:52 PM »



That is a less definite 'no' than I would have anticipated.

I imagine unless Sanders is dead or physically/mentally infirm by 2024, he will be in the Presidential race.

He's going to be the progressive version of Harold Stassen.

Bernie: I am "very very unlikely" to ever again run for President.

Atlas: hE's RuNnInG aGaIn, GuYs !!!1!
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,451
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2020, 04:08:28 PM »



That is a less definite 'no' than I would have anticipated.

I imagine unless Sanders is dead or physically/mentally infirm by 2024, he will be in the Presidential race.

He's going to be the progressive version of Harold Stassen.

Bernie: I am "very very unlikely" to ever again run for President.

Atlas: hE's RuNnInG aGaIn, GuYs !!!1!

Considering how often presidential candidates launch bids after multiple flat-out denials, I don't think this is an especially poor inference.

The trope is that presidential candidates launch bids after multiple non-denial denials (i.e. "all I'm focused on is my job right now").

This ain't that, not least because he'll be 83.
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brucejoel99
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2020, 01:05:03 AM »

I've only seen his name mentioned once in this thread, so I felt like I should add him to the list he is currently my front runner for the 2024 election and that is (soon to be) Massachusetts Senator Joseph Patrick Kennedy III. He is young, charismatic, has the potential to raise boatloads of money, connections to both the progressive young base and the establishment here are a few articles from Mass papers:

Boston Herald
https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/09/25/joe-k-iii-senate-bid-first-step-to-restoring-camelot/

Lowell Sun
https://www.lowellsun.com/2020/04/10/joe-kennedy-iiis-campaign-is-about-the-future/

Careful there hot shot, he hasn't actually won his primary yet.
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brucejoel99
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2020, 09:51:19 PM »

Has anyone noticed that Joe Biden in his recent economic recovery speech twice said that he would create that many jobs "in my first four years alone" and "just in my first term"? I think this may indicate he hasn't settled on being a one-termer already. So if his health permits it, I could see him running for reelection.

Even as an incumbent, I find it hard to believe an 82 year old Biden would win a Democratic Primary for President.

That's an... interesting take.
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,451
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2020, 04:09:54 PM »

Quote
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said Sunday that he would not support any future nominee for the Supreme Court unless they had publicly stated before their nomination that Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that established federal protection for abortion, was “wrongly decided.”

“I will vote only for those Supreme Court nominees who have explicitly acknowledged that Roe v. Wade is wrongly decided,” Hawley said in an interview with The Washington Post. “By explicitly acknowledged, I mean on the record and before they were nominated.”

Hawley added: “I don’t want private assurances from candidates. I don’t want to hear about their personal views, one way or another. I’m not looking for forecasts about how they may vote in the future or predications. I don’t want any of that. I want to see on the record, as part of their record, that they have acknowledged in some forum that Roe v. Wade, as a legal matter, is wrongly decided.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sen-hawley-lays-down-new-antiabortion-marker-for-supreme-court-nominees/2020/07/26/52ed360a-cf73-11ea-8d32-1ebf4e9d8e0d_story.html

I could see Hawley making this a litmus test in the 2024 primaries, forcing every Republican to take a similar stance.

So he wants activist judges? Hmm, guess it was just always projection on their part.
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,451
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2020, 05:37:55 PM »

While there's been more discussion of the GOP field so far in this thread, there does remain the possibility that either Trump wins or Biden wins but doesn't run for a second term.  In either of those cases, there'll presumably be at least a somewhat contested Dem. primary, even if in the latter case Biden's VP would probably be the heavy favorite if she runs.  So one possible Dem. 2024 candidate to check in on is Buttigieg, and it looks like he has a gig at Notre Dame, and a book coming out in October:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/pete-buttigieg-takes-a-faculty-post-at-notre-dame/

Quote
The University of Notre Dame has announced that Pete Buttigieg, failed presidential candidate and former mayor of South Bend, Ind., will be taking a post at the university for the coming academic year.

Buttigieg will be a 2020-21 faculty fellow at Notre Dame’s Institute for Advanced Study (NDIAS), taking part in a cohort that is set to focus on the “nature of trust.” In October, the former mayor will release a book on just that subject, called Trust: America’s Best Chance, “interweaving history, political philosophy, and affecting passages of memoir [to explore] the strong relationship between measures of prosperity and levels of social trust.”

In 2024 he still won't be qualified to be president.

Given he doesn't have any shot at the Governor's Mansion, a Senate seat, or even a House seat, I don't really see what he can do to become "qualified to be president" by 2024 other than bide his time while hoping & praying that Biden picks him to be our next UN Ambassador.
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,451
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2020, 05:56:24 PM »

Buttigieg strikes me a plausible candidate for Harris' running mate in four years, contingent on him becoming UN Ambassador. As much as I like the guy, its hard to see a path forward for him barring a Biden appointment or pulling a Romney and running in another state.

Side note, why do people keep saying Buttigieg is going to be UN Ambassador? Wouldn't HUD be much more suited to his skillset? As far as I can tell, he doesn't have any foreign policy experience.

HUD Secretary is an obvious possibility, yeah, but people want him to be UN Ambassador so he can gain foreign policy experience for when he (presumably) runs for President again, as it's the sort of foreign policy-related appointment that can be given to an appointee with a political following - but without overwhelming traditional credentials for the Presidency - so that person can gain foreign policy experience (e.g., Nikki Haley, John Danforth, Bill Richardson). He may not have diplomatic experience (yet), but he has served in the military, obviously understands the world, speaks 8(!) languages, & is evidently a very smart individual, so he'd easily learn how to operate on the international stage.
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,451
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2020, 07:25:41 PM »

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177

Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

Perhaps she's acknowledging where she is in her political career? Makes sense: one of the things I've always admired the most about her is how she always seems to know who she is & where she can be the most helpful; she's also so completely honest.

As somebody who planned on being a supporter of hers in her next run, though, I'm saddened but nevertheless accept it. Cry I hope she's more able to enjoy Bailey & her family life.
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,451
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2020, 07:26:28 PM »

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177
Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

I liked Warren this time, but I won't vote for her in 2024, regardless of what I think of her politics. I like my Presidential candidates on the younger side of seventy. show prejudice & discriminate on the grounds of a person's age regardless of whether or not there's any evidence providing a legitimate reason to do so & am, therefore, ageist.

FTFY.
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,451
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2020, 03:10:37 PM »

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:


Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.


Biden assured Obama he would not run if they won in 2008. I suspect she was just talking up an asset; the "Warren Democrats" schtick has convinced me she's probably still entertaining a 2024 or even a 2028 bid.

I heard this as well, though I'm not sure what the point was? I'd actually like my vice president to run after two terms to continue the work. Joe Biden obviously backed out in 2016 for other reasons, but if he ran instead of Hillary, he would have beaten Trump in all likelyhood.

Politico just put out a good article on this, actually:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/14/obama-biden-relationship-393570

Basically, it had nothing to do with Beau passing away & everything to do with the fact that Obama just liked that Hillary would govern similarly to him in terms of that 'technocratic' style & focus, whereas Biden is more interpersonal, so Obamaworld (including Obama himself) basically wrote Biden off.
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,451
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2020, 03:35:31 PM »
« Edited: August 18, 2020, 01:59:39 PM by brucejoel99 »

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:


Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.


Biden assured Obama he would not run if they won in 2008. I suspect she was just talking up an asset; the "Warren Democrats" schtick has convinced me she's probably still entertaining a 2024 or even a 2028 bid.

I heard this as well, though I'm not sure what the point was? I'd actually like my vice president to run after two terms to continue the work. Joe Biden obviously backed out in 2016 for other reasons, but if he ran instead of Hillary, he would have beaten Trump in all likelyhood.

Politico just put out a good article on this, actually:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/14/obama-biden-relationship-393570

Basically, it had nothing to do with Beau passing away & everything to do with the fact that Obama just liked that Hillary would govern similarly to him in terms of that 'technocratic' style & focus, whereas Biden is more interpersonal, so Obamaworld (including Obama himself) basically wrote Biden off.

Clowns who want their candidate to talk to the beltway and not their constituents. Let this primary and the foundering of many sympathetic candidates’ bids be the end of that nonsense.

Yeah, "technocratic eye-rolling" was a particularly cute phrase. The way Biden makes connections with people, he must be doing something right.

And something interesting to me if Biden gets elected is that, in a way, he'll have really had a fascinating underdog story. Obama said "Joe always finds a way to f**k things up," & it sure looked like that after the Nevada caucus, but then he went on to have an incredible comeback story for the ages when he cashed in on decades of goodwill stemming from his interpersonal relationships in order to win South Carolina with virtually no money spent. Even Bernie bowing out early was because Biden formed a relationship with him long before anybody would've given Bernie the time of day. Everybody doubted him this whole primary & he still proved them wrong. Honestly, it's pretty inspiring, especially when you find out that Obama wasn't helping at all, which feels like something of a surprise, given just how close everybody presumes they are.

I hope Biden goes the distance & proves everybody that doubted him since the '80s wrong. It'd be a hell of a story, in addition to being good for our country.
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,451
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #17 on: August 16, 2020, 09:35:44 PM »


Can't wait for conservative manbabies to be more triggered than ever before in just 4 years' time Tongue
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brucejoel99
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #18 on: August 17, 2020, 09:34:06 PM »

Sanders says another presidential campaign by him is "very unlikely":

https://www.gazettenet.com/How-Sanders-is-helping-keep-the-progressive-movement-strong-35774671

Quote
That’s a part of a larger fight that could dominate future presidential races Sanders won’t run in. He said it is “very unlikely” that he’s a 2024 presidential candidate, but also refused to speculate on who might succeed him as the movement’s next White House hopeful.

“They want to know who’s running in 2092,” he joked. “In 2092, there was a baby that was born yesterday that announced her candidacy.”


I still think Sanders will at least consider running a third time in 2024 (assuming he's healthy enough to do so). His chances to do so probably increase if Biden actually is running, because I doubt anyone else is actually going to challenge Biden in a primary (except maybe Yang).

Donald Trump being deprived of the nomination next week is more likely than the scenario you describe of Bernie primarying an incumbent Biden.
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,451
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #19 on: August 18, 2020, 09:54:43 AM »

Sanders says another presidential campaign by him is "very unlikely":

https://www.gazettenet.com/How-Sanders-is-helping-keep-the-progressive-movement-strong-35774671

Quote
That’s a part of a larger fight that could dominate future presidential races Sanders won’t run in. He said it is “very unlikely” that he’s a 2024 presidential candidate, but also refused to speculate on who might succeed him as the movement’s next White House hopeful.

“They want to know who’s running in 2092,” he joked. “In 2092, there was a baby that was born yesterday that announced her candidacy.”


I still think Sanders will at least consider running a third time in 2024 (assuming he's healthy enough to do so). His chances to do so probably increase if Biden actually is running, because I doubt anyone else is actually going to challenge Biden in a primary (except maybe Yang).

Donald Trump being deprived of the nomination next week is more likely than the scenario you describe of Bernie primarying an incumbent Biden.

This is the same guy who suggested Obama should get a primary challenge. Why wouldn't he (or Ocasio-Cortez, for that matter) try to primary out Biden?

Asking about an AOC primary challenge is moving the goalposts with regards to your original claim, but Bernie wouldn't primary Biden because he & Biden are actually friends, because the agenda Biden will be implementing as President will be infinitely more progressive than Obama's was, & because - whenever he's been asked about it - he seems completely uninterested in running again.

Those enough reasons?
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,451
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2020, 10:52:30 PM »

Politico has a new 2024 story:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/18/trump-republican-convention-2024-race-396630

Quote
snip

Also, uncertainty on who will be given a convention speaking slot next week:

Quote
snip

If there's a significant number of people really thinking of running for the Republican nomination in 2024, then I'm curious why we're not hearing more about back-biting & internal sabotage of the re-election campaign.

These folks do understand that if he wins in November, then the 2024 nomination isn't worth winning, right? Or are they actually that dense?
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,451
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #21 on: August 20, 2020, 12:17:59 AM »

Politico has a new 2024 story:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/18/trump-republican-convention-2024-race-396630

Quote
snip

Also, uncertainty on who will be given a convention speaking slot next week:

Quote
snip

If there's a significant number of people really thinking of running for the Republican nomination in 2024, then I'm curious why we're not hearing more about back-biting & internal sabotage of the re-election campaign.

These folks do understand that if he wins in November, then the 2024 nomination isn't worth winning, right? Or are they actually that dense?

Probably because the endorsement of a two-term President Trump (regardless of his political fortunes) would be very valuable. Assuming there even is a 2024 election in this scenario, I don't think it's automatic that Pence gets Trump's endorsement.

But even if you get that endorsement & said endorsement gets you the nomination, the GOP just isn't winning a 3rd consecutive term after Trump in 2024, so what good is the nomination in that instance if it can't get you the Presidency?
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,451
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #22 on: August 20, 2020, 05:28:08 PM »

“ Senior Trump campaign aide confirms that rising GOP stars Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Joni Ernst, Kristi Noem will all be featured RNC speakers next week.
Overall Convention Theme next week: Honoring the Great American Story.  @CBSNews”-Fin Gomez via Twitter

I definitely think Joni Ernst doesn’t get enough talk about a potential presidential bid, obviously she won’t show signs till after her re-election but I feel that she is overlooked

Bold of you to assume that she'll be re-elected.
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,451
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #23 on: August 20, 2020, 06:26:40 PM »

“ Senior Trump campaign aide confirms that rising GOP stars Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Joni Ernst, Kristi Noem will all be featured RNC speakers next week.
Overall Convention Theme next week: Honoring the Great American Story.  @CBSNews”-Fin Gomez via Twitter

I definitely think Joni Ernst doesn’t get enough talk about a potential presidential bid, obviously she won’t show signs till after her re-election but I feel that she is overlooked

Bold of you to assume that she'll be re-elected.

I would have thought the campaign currently increasing the jeopardy she is in suggests Ernst 2024 wouldn't go very well.
I doubt, like 90% of candidates that mull runs, could actually win the nomination but being a senator from the first in the nation definitely won’t hurt her chances but if she has a close margin there or loses then it would be automatic death for her campaign

Eh, Idk, being from IA didn't exactly help Tom Harkin's chances back in '92 or anything.
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,451
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #24 on: August 24, 2020, 12:54:20 PM »


Bold of you to assume that she'll be re-elected.

Bold of you to assume that IA senate is a toss up Wink

Facts aren't assumptions Wink Wink
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