The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Orwell]

I've only seen his name mentioned once in this thread, so I felt like I should add him to the list he is currently my front runner for the 2024 election and that is (soon to be) Massachusetts Senator Joseph Patrick Kennedy III. He is young, charismatic, has the potential to raise boatloads of money, connections to both the progressive young base and the establishment here are a few articles from Mass papers:

Boston Herald
https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/09/25/joe-k-iii-senate-bid-first-step-to-restoring-camelot/

Lowell Sun
https://www.lowellsun.com/2020/04/10/joe-kennedy-iiis-campaign-is-about-the-future/

Careful there hot shot, he hasn't actually won his primary yet.

I believe smh. He will finally restore camelot. Lol

[Ferguson97]

Trump will run in 2024 if he loses in November.

[Grassroots]

Trump will run in 2024 if he loses in November.

Doubt it

[Blue3]

Well if he lost in 2016, he would have pretended to pick a cabinet (but hired them for this show), and have a "serious" TV show where he fake-responded to events differently from a President Hillary Clinton, sign copies of bills the GOP Congress would pass, and do it all in bombastic ways where everything always turned out perfectly for him since he's writing the storyline.

[Mr. Morden]

Mark Cuban has not only claimed uncertainty as to whether he'll run in 2020, but also 2024:

https://www.wthr.com/article/iu-grad-mark-cuban-wont-rule-out-2024-presidential-run

[RogueBeaver]

Very long Florida Men feature in POLITICO featuring Scott, DeSantis, Rubio and Gaetz, mostly focusing on the first 2. Both are extremely interested, Rubio is meh and Gaetz is more interested in Rubio's Senate seat for now. IMO makes a convincing case Scott is a better pol than DeSantis.

[Ferguson97]

GOP (if Trump loses): Pence, Haley, DeSantis, Cruz, Rubio

GOP (if Trump wins): Possibly Pence without any serious challengers

Dems (if Biden wins): Biden's VP; challenged by Jeff Merkley or AOC

Dems (if Biden loses): Cuomo, Newsom, Whitmer, Abrams, AOC, Beshar, De Blasio, Jeff Merkley, Joe Kenendy III, Harris, Buttigieg, Yang

[Mr. Morden]

Story here on Pompeo’s political trips, which may be a prelude to a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.startribune.com/pompeo-adds-political-stops-to-diplomatic-trips/570710512/

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a secretive trip in January to a Florida retirement enclave populated by prominent GOP donors at the tail end of a diplomatic trip to Latin America.

He held the same kind of quiet meeting in December with Republican donors at a hotel dinner on a State Department trip to London.

And last October, he huddled with Charles Koch, the GOP billionaire and a longtime supporter of his, while on an official visit to Kansas. That trip was made aboard a government aircraft.

In each of those instances, Pompeo did not put the visits on his public schedule. He and his aides avoided telling the reporters with them about the meetings, though some reported them afterward. And they took place as Pompeo was considering a run for the Senate from Kansas and as he nurtures plans for a presidential bid in 2024.

[Mr. Morden]

Haley possibly using "get tough on China" petition to build a list for 2024:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/nikki-haley-stokes-anger-at-china-to-build-2024-election-support/ar-BB13I7iW

Haley is asking people to sign a petition urging Congress to get tough with “communist China” amid rising criticism of Beijing’s questionable handling of the coronavirus in the weeks after the disease emerged in Wuhan. The issue aligns with a hawkish foreign policy Haley promoted at the United Nations, and since leaving President Trump’s cabinet, that has emphasized confronting China’s authoritarian regime.

Republican voters are increasingly anxious about China’s intentions and global influence. Haley’s petition is unlikely to be the factor that pushes Congress to crack down on Beijing. But as the pandemic persists and its devastating impact on public health and the economy unfolds, the exercise allows Haley to elevate her profile on a critical national security issue and steadily build a list of supporters the former South Carolina governor could tap to fuel a presidential campaign.

“What are you going to do with a petition? The reality is, she’s building a list,” said Ed Rollins, a veteran Republican strategist who runs a pro-Trump super PAC.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1269792011361628162

[Mr. Morden]

Cotton will in fact put up (digital) attack ads against Biden in Michigan.....and Iowa:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sen-cotton-rallies-conservatives-and-raises-national-profile-as-op-ed-on-military-intervention-causes-uproar/2020/06/08/ca153a0a-a9a0-11ea-9063-e69bd6520940_story.html

The digital ads, which will run in Michigan and Iowa, are five figures, according to the adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe a campaign that has yet to begin. But the relatively small ad campaign is meant not only to boost Trump’s reelection chances in key battlegrounds and bring attention to the China issue, but also for Cotton’s political team to test messages against Biden and see what attack lines resonate with voters.

Cotton is also focusing attention in retaining the Senate majority, hosting more than half-dozen virtual fundraisers for Senate Republicans in recent weeks and doing digital fundraising for nearly all GOP senators locked in competitive reelection races.

“They will often rely on Tom to deliver kind of a harsher, negative message and Tom is willing to do that,” the adviser said.

Also of note from that story:

At the Republican National Convention four years ago, Cotton made sure to appear before delegations from Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — three critical early-nomination states — as well as meet with GOP leaders from Florida and Ohio.

At a lunch with Iowa Republicans, Cotton boasted that he loves the state so much “that I married a girl born in Iowa.” With delegates from New Hampshire, Cotton noted his fandom of the New England Patriots. And at both appearances, he mocked Democrats and sidestepped mentions of Trump, who at the time had been struggling to coalesce broad support from the party.

And:

Cotton would consider serving in the Cabinet in a second Trump administration, according to a person close to the senator who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk frankly.

[Horsemask]

Found an article while patrolling Twitter today from Business Insider

https://www.businessinsider.com/gop-operatives-see-2024-presidential-contenders-in-these-politicians-2020-6

Features quick write-ups on 11 perceived candidates: Trump Jr, Hawley, Hogan, Scott, Rubio, Pompeo, DeSantis, Cotton, Haley, Cruz, Pence -- but also includes Trump as a wildcard in the event of his defeat this year.

Should Trump lose in November he'd likely dominate the political spotlight until he lets it go. And that has Republicans contemplating the fallout as an ex-president Trump gets peppered with questions about trying to join Cleveland in the history books by running again in 2024 with an aim of serving non-consecutive terms as president. 

"At the very least, he'll threaten to and f--- with the field to get attention," said one Republican strategist.

A former senior Trump White House aide predicted Trump — if booted from office — would taunt Biden daily while toying with the notion of getting back into politics, especially if the 2020 race ended with controversy. "It'd be day by day," the person said. "It's not in his DNA to lose. He'd want to be vindicated."

[terp40hitch]

My list of potential candidates in 2024 (assuming Trump loses):

Republicans:
Very Likely:
Ted Cruz
Mike Pompeo
Nikki Haley
Mike Pence
Tom Cotton
Rick Scott

Likely:
Greg Abbott
Marco Rubio
Ron DeSantis
Josh Hawley
Will Hurd
Chris Christie
Elise Stefanik

Maybe:
Scott Walker
Rand Paul
Doug Ducey
Dan Crenshaw

Most Likely not:
George P. Bush
Lindsey Graham
Ben Carson

Dark Horse:
Ben Shapiro
Donald Trump Jr.


Democrats:
Very Likely:
Kamala Harris
Andrew Yang
Pete Buttigieg
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Gavin Newsom

Likely:
Stacey Abrams
Val Demings
Joe Kennedy III
Gretchen Whitmer
Amy Klobuchar

Maybe:
John Hickenlooper
Sherrod Brown
Kristen Gillibrand
Cory Booker

Most likely not:
Andrew Cuomo
Beto O'Rourke
Elizabeth Warren
Tim Kaine
Gina Raimondo

Dark Horse:
Mark Cuban

[Mr. Morden]

Pence headed to Iowa yet again tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/CaroRCummings/status/1272536915129126919

[Mr. Morden]

Very long Florida Men feature in POLITICO featuring Scott, DeSantis, Rubio and Gaetz, mostly focusing on the first 2. Both are extremely interested, Rubio is meh and Gaetz is more interested in Rubio's Senate seat for now. IMO makes a convincing case Scott is a better pol than DeSantis.

I finally got around to reading this.  Some excerpts:

POLITICO interviewed 20 veterans who have worked formally or informally for both DeSantis or Scott—and in some cases, both. Speaking anonymously to share their candid assessments of the state’s political topography, these insiders reveal that almost every story involving Florida’s statewide politicians is best understood by viewing it through the lens of the 2024 race.

“You know how I know Rick Scott wants to run for president?” said a longtime Republican operative who has worked for both men. “He said that. I have to be careful about specifics, but he has said to me, and for sure has alluded to donors, what is to come.”
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DeSantis loyalists acknowledge that even in 2018, in the midst of a messy primary fight, they were aware of their candidate’s higher aspirations—and the long-term work required to mold a gaffe-prone congressman with a notable lack of people skills into the national candidate he already thought he was.
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“One of the lines I’ve heard him use multiple times with multiple high-net-worth donors is, ‘I’ll be sworn in as governor at 40 years old. That’s not the last thing I’m going to do,’” said a veteran GOP consultant who also worked on DeSantis’ campaign. “It’s very clear he is a person who has national aspirations, and for better or worse, has the confidence to do it.”
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Rubio has remained outside the fray, but his failure in 2016 makes him an automatic factor for a second run. Indeed, he has already been the most open of the three that he is considering running for president in a post-Trump era.

His team also quietly gathered last year in Washington to plot a potential path forward. “There was a frank conversation about donors and who they would be with if all three were in,” said one adviser who attended the meeting. Rubio’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

[Mr. Morden]

Various GOP politicos seem to think Tucker Carlson might run in 2024, but this article doesn't really summon any evidence that Carlson himself is interested:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334

“Let me put it this way: If Biden wins and Tucker decided to run, he’d be the nominee,” said Sam Nunberg, a former top political aide to Trump who knows Carlson. But Nunberg said he doesn’t believe Carlson will run because “he’s so disgusted with politicians.”

Sixteen prominent Republicans interviewed by POLITICO said there’s an emerging consensus in the GOP that the 51-year-old Carlson would be formidable if he were to run. Some strategists aligned with other potential candidates are convinced he will enter the race and detect the outlines of a stump speech in Carlson’s recent Fox monologues. Others, particularly those who know him well, are skeptical that he would leave his prime-time TV gig.

Carlson and Fox News declined to comment.
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Carlson has never run for office and has been dismissive of doing so in the past. In 2012, Nunberg said Republican operative Roger Stone unsuccessfully pushed Carlson to run on the Libertarian ticket. Stone told POLITICO in an email that “t is not inconceivable that I may have raised it in jest or in passing as repartee, but have no memory of that.”

[NewYorkExpress]

Various GOP politicos seem to think Tucker Carlson might run in 2024, but this article doesn't really summon any evidence that Carlson himself is interested:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334

“Let me put it this way: If Biden wins and Tucker decided to run, he’d be the nominee,” said Sam Nunberg, a former top political aide to Trump who knows Carlson. But Nunberg said he doesn’t believe Carlson will run because “he’s so disgusted with politicians.”

Sixteen prominent Republicans interviewed by POLITICO said there’s an emerging consensus in the GOP that the 51-year-old Carlson would be formidable if he were to run. Some strategists aligned with other potential candidates are convinced he will enter the race and detect the outlines of a stump speech in Carlson’s recent Fox monologues. Others, particularly those who know him well, are skeptical that he would leave his prime-time TV gig.

Carlson and Fox News declined to comment.
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Carlson has never run for office and has been dismissive of doing so in the past. In 2012, Nunberg said Republican operative Roger Stone unsuccessfully pushed Carlson to run on the Libertarian ticket. Stone told POLITICO in an email that “t is not inconceivable that I may have raised it in jest or in passing as repartee, but have no memory of that.”

Tucker Carlson running in 2024 is about as likely as Stephen Colbert running a serious campaign for President in 2024.

[Ferguson97]

Various GOP politicos seem to think Tucker Carlson might run in 2024, but this article doesn't really summon any evidence that Carlson himself is interested:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334

“Let me put it this way: If Biden wins and Tucker decided to run, he’d be the nominee,” said Sam Nunberg, a former top political aide to Trump who knows Carlson. But Nunberg said he doesn’t believe Carlson will run because “he’s so disgusted with politicians.”

Sixteen prominent Republicans interviewed by POLITICO said there’s an emerging consensus in the GOP that the 51-year-old Carlson would be formidable if he were to run. Some strategists aligned with other potential candidates are convinced he will enter the race and detect the outlines of a stump speech in Carlson’s recent Fox monologues. Others, particularly those who know him well, are skeptical that he would leave his prime-time TV gig.

Carlson and Fox News declined to comment.
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Carlson has never run for office and has been dismissive of doing so in the past. In 2012, Nunberg said Republican operative Roger Stone unsuccessfully pushed Carlson to run on the Libertarian ticket. Stone told POLITICO in an email that “t is not inconceivable that I may have raised it in jest or in passing as repartee, but have no memory of that.”

Tucker Carlson running in 2024 is about as likely as Stephen Colbert running a serious campaign for President in 2024.

Or Donald Trump! Oh, wait...

[Roll Roons]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/politics/larry-hogan-maryland-book-tour-2024-campaign.html

Hogan has a memoir coming out soon with a virtual tour of sorts.

[President Johnson]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/politics/larry-hogan-maryland-book-tour-2024-campaign.html

Hogan has a memoir coming out soon with a virtual tour of sorts.

He'd be decent president, but it will never happen. The Republican won't nominate this guy. He's far too moderate and too sane.

[Mr. Morden]

The Guardian has a story on Nikki Haley’s 2024 maneuvering, highlighting in particular her use of her non-profit group, Stand for America:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/10/nikki-haley-post-trump-republican-party

Stand for America is composed of a small team of about six people, including [executive director Tim] Chapman. The team has a weekly Zoom call with Haley and Chapman spends much of his time coalition-building and working with outside groups and policymakers.

Haley often weighs in on foreign policy or “Democrats’ embrace of socialism” as she did in a February op-ed for the Wall Street Journal’s editorial section. Warning about advancing socialism is a favorite topic for Haley and her organization. A recent mailer sent out to supporters asked them to participate in a “REFERENDUM ON SOCIALISM”. The mailer went on to tick off some liberal policy proposals like free college tuition or the Green New Deal proposed by the Democratic congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
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Haley has fundraised for almost a dozen Republican Senate candidates, many of them in tough re-election races, and has been a special guest at Republican Governors Association (RGA) events. Last November, Haley authored a book, With All Due Respect, billed as “a first-hand perspective on major national and international matters”. The book covers the end of her governorship as well as her time as ambassador.
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Haley has surrounded herself with operatives who could lead a presidential campaign. The most commonly mentioned Republican strategist is Jon Lerner, who served as a deputy to Haley at the UN. Chapman previously ran the advocacy arm of the Heritage Foundation giving him strong ties to influential experts and groups within the Republican party.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/12/larry-hogan-2024-republicans-358051

As rumors swirl that Larry Hogan is eyeing a run for president in 2024, the Republican governor of Maryland has some advice for the post-Trump GOP: Be more like me.

“I don't know what the future holds in November, but I know that the Republican Party is going to be looking at what happens after President [Donald] Trump and whether that's in four months or four years,” Hogan said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”


That, Hogan argued, should include becoming more inclusive.


“I think they're going to be looking to, ‘How do we go about becoming a bigger tent party?’” he told host Chuck Todd.

Hogan pointed to his 2018 reelection as the model, when he won in Maryland, a deeply Democratic state by twelve points. He also cited the fact he won votes from suburban women, Democrats and Independents, the latter two groups being groups that appear to have ditched President Trump.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/12/larry-hogan-2024-republicans-358051

As rumors swirl that Larry Hogan is eyeing a run for president in 2024, the Republican governor of Maryland has some advice for the post-Trump GOP: Be more like me.

“I don't know what the future holds in November, but I know that the Republican Party is going to be looking at what happens after President [Donald] Trump and whether that's in four months or four years,” Hogan said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”


That, Hogan argued, should include becoming more inclusive.


“I think they're going to be looking to, ‘How do we go about becoming a bigger tent party?’” he told host Chuck Todd.

Hogan pointed to his 2018 reelection as the model, when he won in Maryland, a deeply Democratic state by twelve points. He also cited the fact he won votes from suburban women, Democrats and Independents, the latter two groups being groups that appear to have ditched President Trump.

I love this man so much. I don't care if he has minimal chance in a GOP primary. I believe in him, and think he would make an amazing president.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/12/larry-hogan-2024-republicans-358051

As rumors swirl that Larry Hogan is eyeing a run for president in 2024, the Republican governor of Maryland has some advice for the post-Trump GOP: Be more like me.

“I don't know what the future holds in November, but I know that the Republican Party is going to be looking at what happens after President [Donald] Trump and whether that's in four months or four years,” Hogan said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”


That, Hogan argued, should include becoming more inclusive.


“I think they're going to be looking to, ‘How do we go about becoming a bigger tent party?’” he told host Chuck Todd.

Hogan pointed to his 2018 reelection as the model, when he won in Maryland, a deeply Democratic state by twelve points. He also cited the fact he won votes from suburban women, Democrats and Independents, the latter two groups being groups that appear to have ditched President Trump.

I love this man so much. I don't care if he has minimal chance in a GOP primary. I believe in him, and think he would make an amazing president.

Platitudes about inclusiveness and being a "big tent" party are all well and good, but any presumptive GOP leader has to back it up with a policy platform that is sustainable long term and will actually win an election.  The last thing I want to happen is the party to regress back to 2012 which seems somewhat likely if the nevertrumpers take control of the party again, and arrogantly decide that they control the GOP and any populism should be stamped out.

The GOP reverting back to 2010 suburban support is impossible, and the National Review platform of pro-corporatism and social conservatism is a dead end.  The Nevertrumpers have to understand that their party platform has to evolve to fit a changing world and changing demographics.  Nationalism in a geopolitical sense and pro-worker populist policies is the way forward for the GOP.

Some establishment Republicans understand this-see Rubio supporting Ivanka's parental leave proposal and "common good" capitalism, and the hawkish views on communist China Nikki Haley (and much of the party) have adopted.  This is the path of least resistance for the GOP and will help recover with suburban voters-at least compared to fire-breathing nationalists.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie reiterates that he might run for prez again in 2024.  At about the 15:55 mark in this video he's asked about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiy37CumQWA

“I would certainly look at the race in 2024, and I would not back off from that at all."

And then a bit later:

“Maybe 2024 is the time to go after that job again.”