The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.axios.com/trump-2024-campaign-primary-cda9abf4-615c-4095-a2aa-1045f2a55970.html

Reality check: Several allies who talk regularly to Trump told Axios they believe he'll announce for 2024, but ultimately not make the run because of what one Republican close to Trump called "hurdles he has never before experienced."

Not clear what "announce but not make the run" means, since by most reckonings the act of announcing puts you in the race.  I mean, usually candidates formally file papers with the FEC on the day they announce their campaigns (or +/- 1 day of doing so).  Are they saying that Trump will announce a campaign without making it official with the FEC?  Or perhaps more likely, that he'd formally enter the race, but not do a ton of campaign legwork, then drop out after a while, or something like that.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Trump being a 'paper candidate' doesn't really vibe with the assumption that he'll be holding ego-boosting rallies. Either he's running or he's not

[Blue3]

They think he’s going to go bankrupt and/or to jail, as well as fend off numerous lawsuits. Plus ambitious Republicans blaming everything Biden does that annoys them on Trump, them really going Trump on Trump. That’s what they mean. That might be a naive hope. We shall see.

[EastwoodS]

They think he’s going to go bankrupt and/or to jail, as well as fend off numerous lawsuits. Plus ambitious Republicans blaming everything Biden does that annoys them on Trump, them really going Trump on Trump. That’s what they mean. That might be a naive hope. We shall see.

I just don’t understand why the GOP still wants him, when there are so many better options in 2024. I genuinely hope he does not stick around until 2024, and I am praying his kids don’t run either

[Hammy]

They think he’s going to go bankrupt and/or to jail, as well as fend off numerous lawsuits. Plus ambitious Republicans blaming everything Biden does that annoys them on Trump, them really going Trump on Trump. That’s what they mean. That might be a naive hope. We shall see.

I just don’t understand why the GOP still wants him, when there are so many better options in 2024. I genuinely hope he does not stick around until 2024, and I am praying his kids don’t run either

When you make a deal with the devil there's no going back.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump being a 'paper candidate' doesn't really vibe with the assumption that he'll be holding ego-boosting rallies. Either he's running or he's not

He'll do some rallies, but it hardly seems clear that running for president again is really going to be anything close to a full time job for him over these next few years.  E.g.:

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-hints-2024-run-may-145304271.html

According to The Washington Post, as Trump is realizing that the end of his presidency is near, he is exploring other ways to make money. The president is reportedly considering giving paid speeches or selling tickets to his rallies. He is also considering writing a memoir and a renewed career in television.

Campaigning for president could easily end up just being a side gig for him for a while, and he could ultimately decide to drop it for any number of reasons (such as winding up in jail  ).

[Mr. Morden]

https://globalnews.ca/video/7497425/white-house-press-secretary-stays-mum-on-trumps-supposed-plan-to-run-for-president-in-2024

White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany said on Wednesday she hasn’t spoken to President Donald Trump about comments he made during a White House party, wherein he hinted he’d run for president again in 2024. She said she’s aware of the purported plan, but the campaign is currently focusing on legal actions regarding the recent election results.

Also, it sounds like there’s indecision in Trump world about jumping into the ’24 race even before the Georgia runoff elections vs. doing it at the time of the inauguration vs. doing it shortly after inauguration day vs. keeping everyone in suspense for a couple of years:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/03/trump-2024-election-republicans-442728

Meanwhile, Trump has yet to make a decision on his own future. As recently as Wednesday, the president was mulling the idea of scheduling a campaign announcement on Jan. 20 to counterprogram Biden’s inauguration, according to two people familiar with the conversations. He has also discussed an announcement ahead of Georgia’s two Senate runoff elections on Jan. 5, believing his base’s excitement would increase turnout in the all-important contests.

Some Trump allies claim the president would help other Republicans, too, by declaring his candidacy almost immediately after leaving office, suggesting it would save the party a contentious primary between Trump-hostile characters and those vying to claim his ultra-loyal base. But other confidants have encouraged Trump to keep the public in suspense, and instead spend the next two years strategically undercutting the Biden administration and lending his help to House and Senate GOP candidates.

[Mr. Morden]

Rick Scott on 2024: “I’m not planning to run.”

Though that’s hardly shermanesque, as plans can change.  Anyway:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/386170-rick-scott-says-hes-not-planning-2024-presidential-run-backs-donald-trump

Scott told host Stuart Varney that Trump’s “had a good four years” and “he ought to do it again.”

“If that’s what he wants to do,” Scott disclaimed.
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Varney, who often interviews Scott, asked if he would run if Trump wouldn’t, and for the second time on national television in recent weeks, Scott disclaimed interest in the presidency.

“I’m not planning to run,” Scott told Varney. “I’m a new Senator. I’m working on my job as a U.S. Senator, trying to make sure I’m taking care of everybody in Florida.”

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/12/02/npr-president-trump-seriously-considering-2024-run-as-he-continues-false-2020-claims

A former campaign adviser who remains in touch with key players around Trump said his advisers are working under the assumption he will run again, and said he could announce by the end of the year or shortly before Inauguration Day. "He'll probably announce the night before inauguration, so that that becomes a conversation all throughout Joe Biden's inauguration," the former adviser said. But others said they hadn't heard anything that concrete.

Also, here’s another “potential 2024 candidates flock to Georgia” story:

https://www.npr.org/2020/12/04/942053653/georgia-senate-runoffs-lure-possible-2024-gop-hopefuls-including-trump

Among those showing up in recent weeks to lend a hand have been Vice President Pence, Sens. Marco Rubio and Rick Scott of Florida, and Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas. Others have helped out from afar, through fundraising and other means, such as former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who ran second to President Trump in the 2016 primaries, said he'll be there soon enough.
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But they could all be overshadowed when Trump travels there to campaign Saturday for Perdue and Loeffler at his first rally since losing the election, including the state of Georgia, to Joe Biden.

[Mr. Morden]

CNN talks about Pence's future plans (which presumably includes a '24 presidential run, but maybe only if Trump doesn't run):

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/05/politics/pence-trump-2020-2024-future/index.html

It's not entirely clear what Pence's immediate plans are once he's out of office -- even down to where he's going to live. For nearly eight years, ever since he moved into the governor's residence in Indianapolis in early 2013, Pence and his wife Karen have lived in government housing. The first order of business, said his close friend, is finding a permanent place to sleep at night.

People close to Pence who spoke to CNN think he is most likely to decamp to Indiana rather than stick around Washington. The vice president's office declined to comment for this story.
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"He can spend the next couple years traveling the country, giving speeches, attending Republican events and fundraisers, keep an active and high profile while he makes the decision on whether he wants to run," said [former Pence spokesman Jon] Thompson.

That story also makes reference to this story about the RNC inviting several prospective 2024 candidates to the party's January meeting:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/02/rnc-2024-hopefuls-trump-442302

McDaniel is inviting roughly a dozen potential 2024 presidential candidates to the RNC's January meeting in Amelia Island, Fla. — the most explicit move she's made yet to show that the committee will be impartial going forward and not simply an extension of Trump’s political machine, even as he openly mulls a comeback bid.

The list of would-be candidates invited to speak includes South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, and former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley. Vice President Mike Pence, another potential contender, is planning to attend. Trump is also invited, though spokespersons declined to say whether he’d be going.
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The list of invitees to the RNC meeting also includes Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, and Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst. Three Florida Republicans — Sens. Rick Scott and Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis — are also getting invitations.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Trump really saved Pence's political career. No wonder he's been such a supplicant. He owes Trump a personal debt. I doubt he'd run against Trump in 2024.

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump really saved Pence's political career. No wonder he's been such a supplicant. He owes Trump a personal debt. I doubt he'd run against Trump in 2024.

I think Pence would run against Trump, if he saw polling numbers that looked good for him.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump's potential campaign kickoff?:

https://www.axios.com/trump-biden-inauguration-florida-rally-78b56134-54ae-4113-ad0a-ae29cd5c7be1.html

President Trump is considering a made-for-TV grand finale: a White House departure on Marine One and final Air Force One flight to Florida for a political rally opposite Joe Biden's inauguration, sources familiar with the discussions tell Axios.

The former network star is privately discussing using his waning powers as commander in chief to order up the exit he wants after dissing Biden by refusing to concede the election, welcome him to the White House or commit to attending his inauguration.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Trump's potential campaign kickoff?:

https://www.axios.com/trump-biden-inauguration-florida-rally-78b56134-54ae-4113-ad0a-ae29cd5c7be1.html

President Trump is considering a made-for-TV grand finale: a White House departure on Marine One and final Air Force One flight to Florida for a political rally opposite Joe Biden's inauguration, sources familiar with the discussions tell Axios.

The former network star is privately discussing using his waning powers as commander in chief to order up the exit he wants after dissing Biden by refusing to concede the election, welcome him to the White House or commit to attending his inauguration.

Is he...allowed to take Air Force One out of Washington on inauguration day?

[brucejoel99]

Trump's potential campaign kickoff?:

https://www.axios.com/trump-biden-inauguration-florida-rally-78b56134-54ae-4113-ad0a-ae29cd5c7be1.html

President Trump is considering a made-for-TV grand finale: a White House departure on Marine One and final Air Force One flight to Florida for a political rally opposite Joe Biden's inauguration, sources familiar with the discussions tell Axios.

The former network star is privately discussing using his waning powers as commander in chief to order up the exit he wants after dissing Biden by refusing to concede the election, welcome him to the White House or commit to attending his inauguration.

Is he...allowed to take Air Force One out of Washington on inauguration day?

If he's doing a rally in Florida side-by-side with the Inauguration (i.e. at noon), then he'll presumably have left DC at ~9:30, when he's still President & therefore still entitled to the use of AF1. (Also, outgoing Presidents have been permitted to take AF1 to the destination of their choice anyway: usually home (as with W.), but Obama took it to Palm Springs for a vacation, for example.)

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo will join the long list of potential '24 candidates to campaign in Georgia:

https://twitter.com/tackettdc/status/1335996518747222018

[tosk]

Pompeo will join the long list of potential '24 candidates to campaign in Georgia:

https://twitter.com/tackettdc/status/1335996518747222018

He's made a habit of giving official speeches in politically important states

[It’s so Joever]

May as well call it the Georgia primaries at this point.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1336114040796565507

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like Kristi Noem also campaigned in Georgia this past weekend:

https://www.keloland.com/news/investigates/gov-noem-makes-stops-in-tx-ga-as-covid-19-death-toll-mounts-in-sd/

[Mr. Morden]

Politico says Trump has been talking with a variety of friendly voices about how he can best continue to draw attention to himself (er….”stay part of the conversation”) after he leaves office.  According to those reportedly in the loop, he’s said that he intends to run for president again, but it’s not clear if he’s actually going to imminently launch his campaign for real, or just tease one without formally getting in the race.  And even if he does formally get in the race, he might drop out in two years if he determines he’ll “have a tough time winning”:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/14/trump-2024-possible-run-444460

The president has spent days calling a dozen or more allies to ask what they think he needs to do over the next two years to “stay part of the conversation,” according to two people, including one who spoke to the president. And while Trump has told allies he plans to run for president again, he has also indicated he could back out in two years if he determines he’ll have a tough time winning, said three people familiar with the discussions.

Essentially, at this point, Trump appears just as interested in people talking about a Trump 2024 campaign as he is in actually launching a real campaign, even if he may ultimately turn his flirtation into a serious bid, according to interviews with 11 Republicans who worked for Trump or helped in his two races.

Formally running for president would mean a lot of things aides say Trump doesn’t want to deal with: financial disclosure forms, building campaign infrastructure, the possibility of losing again. But simply teasing a presidential run — without actually filing the paperwork or erecting a campaign — gets Trump the attention he needs for the next two years.
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Some allies have privately urged Trump to announce he is running on Inauguration Day – as he did in 2017 — to try to take attention away from Biden and satisfy Trump’s need for attention. But Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and top aide, and Bill Stepien, Trump’s 2020 campaign manager, are advising him to take his time to announce, according to two people familiar with the discussions.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I have this deep gut instinct that Trump will not ultimately run. He will tease it, he may even continue doing rallies and selling merch and talking about why the country needs him, but he hates being President.

[2016]

I have this deep gut instinct that Trump will not ultimately run. He will tease it, he may even continue doing rallies and selling merch and talking about why the country needs him, but he hates being President.

My gut feel tells me like you said that he'll do Rallies and selling merch but more importantly he'll activly trying to destroy the Republican Party for the next two years, freeze the entire potential GOP Field in 2024 for as long as he can before taking a pass and then ultimativly play kingmaker for someone who was loyal to him during his tenure as President.

That's why I firmly believe FL Governor Ron DeSantis has the best shot at the Nomination after Trump.

More than anything else: Trump Rewards "Loyalty".

Many Republicans here on "Talk Elections" are ignoring to their own perril how much leverage Trump has over Republicans and particularly his Supporters.

If he gives them Marching Orders for a Candidate he endorses they will do that in a heartbeat.

If he picks a Candidate to defeat Brian Kemp, Mike DeWine or Doug Ducey they will do everything they can to defeat those 3 Politicians.

[Gracile]

I have this deep gut instinct that Trump will not ultimately run. He will tease it, he may even continue doing rallies and selling merch and talking about why the country needs him, but he hates being President.

My gut instinct with Trump is he will either do as you say and heavily tease at running over the next few years complete with rallies, media appearances, etc. before ultimately declining to run in late 2023 or he will go full steam ahead with another presidential campaign and win the primary in a landslide. No in-between.

[Asta]

I have this deep gut instinct that Trump will not ultimately run. He will tease it, he may even continue doing rallies and selling merch and talking about why the country needs him, but he hates being President.

I don't think that's what he meant when he said that.

He has the attention span of a 5 year old. Having to listen to what people advise around him is a chore. He hates the tasks that come with being President perhaps but the reward of being admired and dominating over people is too big to ignore for someone like him.

Rallies are great, but ultimately his fame will plummet as soon as he steps out of the office and decides not to run. He's never going to relinquish an opportunity like that. In fact, the word is that he ran in 2016 because he was pissed at Obama mocking him. He detests losing and being humiliated more than anyone. He definitely wants a rematch. Unless his health is in serious decline or he faces serious legal trouble, he will certainly run.