The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1330302111280746497

He’s going to announce at an Inauguration Day “welcome home” rally in WPB, completely stealing Joes thunder.

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1330302111280746497

He’s going to announce at an Inauguration Day “welcome home” rally in WPB, completely stealing Joes thunder.

Pretty sure doing a dumb rally won’t steal Biden’s Inauguration Day thunder.

[redjohn]

The only "thunder stolen" by any side clown-show by Trump on Jan. 20 will be from the viewership of NewsMax and other conspiracy broadcasters

[SingingAnalyst]

If Nikki Haley and Tom Cotton were on the GOP ticket, I believe that would be the first time both people on the GOP ticket were from the (arguably Deep) South. (Though the Tommy Tuberville thread is interesting)

Would they beat Kamala Harris plus a member of the Squad?

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio’s take on Trump 2024 suggests he’s not particularly interested in getting in the race if Trump is a candidate as well:

https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-signal-trump-here-stay-he-mulls-2024-presidential-run-hell-nominee-1548461

"He has forced this country to confront issues that both parties ignored for far too long, and if he runs in 2024, it's my view he'll be the nominee," Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) told Newsweek. "He'll remain the most influential Republican in the country for the foreseeable future. There's no doubt about that."

[Mr. Morden]

Some talk about Texas politics here, which mentions the possibility of Abbott and/or Cruz running in 2024:

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-politics/texas-republicans-eye-2022-and-beyond-after-romping-in-november-election/

The story notes that Texas law does allow a candidate to run for multiple offices for once (see also Lloyd Bentsen ’88), so Cruz could, if he wanted to, run for reelection for Senate while also running in the ’24 presidential primary.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.mediaite.com/news/dan-bongino-floats-2024-presidential-bid-if-trump-isnt-on-the-ballot-i-will-consider-entering-politics-again/

Pro-Trump pundit Dan Bongino floated on his podcast Monday that he would consider running for president of the United States in 2024.

“I hate politics,” Bongino said. “Paula [Bongino] is like, don’t you dare. I’m going to dare. I hate — I have said a thousand times on this show, ‘politics and me, no good.'”

The Fox News contributor then said that if Maryland’s Republican Governor Larry Hogan ran for president, he would challenge him.

“If Harry (sic) Hogan runs for president in 2024, and there is no one by the name of Trump on the ballot, I will consider entering politics again,” Bongino stated.
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For someone who hates politics so much, Bongino has made quite a few bids for public office. The pundit ran for Congress in Maryland and Florida three times, all unsuccessfully.

[tosk]

Bit of a shock but NSA Robert O'Brien has floated a 2024 bid

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/24/trumps-national-security-adviser-floats-a-2024-bid-with-friends-439999

Honestly being National Security Advisor is good prepping to *be* president, but I don't know that it prepares you to *run* for president.

[brucejoel99]

Trump has shown them that just about any idiot can win a Republican primary. The 2024 field is gonna be huge & crazy.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

https://www.mediaite.com/news/dan-bongino-floats-2024-presidential-bid-if-trump-isnt-on-the-ballot-i-will-consider-entering-politics-again/

Pro-Trump pundit Dan Bongino floated on his podcast Monday that he would consider running for president of the United States in 2024.

“I hate politics,” Bongino said. “Paula [Bongino] is like, don’t you dare. I’m going to dare. I hate — I have said a thousand times on this show, ‘politics and me, no good.'”

The Fox News contributor then said that if Maryland’s Republican Governor Larry Hogan ran for president, he would challenge him.

“If Harry (sic) Hogan runs for president in 2024, and there is no one by the name of Trump on the ballot, I will consider entering politics again,” Bongino stated.
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For someone who hates politics so much, Bongino has made quite a few bids for public office. The pundit ran for Congress in Maryland and Florida three times, all unsuccessfully.

Who??

Bit of a shock but NSA Robert O'Brien has floated a 2024 bid

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/24/trumps-national-security-adviser-floats-a-2024-bid-with-friends-439999

Honestly being National Security Advisor is good prepping to *be* president, but I don't know that it prepares you to *run* for president.

Who?

[Mr. Morden]

Bit of a shock but NSA Robert O'Brien has floated a 2024 bid

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/24/trumps-national-security-adviser-floats-a-2024-bid-with-friends-439999

Honestly being National Security Advisor is good prepping to *be* president, but I don't know that it prepares you to *run* for president.

From that story:

O’Brien himself has remained publicly mum on the subject. But his travel as national security adviser has included a slate of early presidential primary slates, including Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — an unusual combination for someone in his position. And one of O’Brien’s Republican friends said the trips have “amplified” his interest in running for president.
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There’s some evidence O’Brien did use these trips to enhance his political knowledge. During a September trip to Iowa to speak at Drake University, O’Brien asked a local political consultant to give him a “lay of the land” briefing on the state’s political situation, according to the consultant.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1330302111280746497

Here’s more from that story btw:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-2024-rematch/2020/11/21/58ce87ac-2a8d-11eb-8fa2-06e7cbb145c0_story.html

In a nod to the reality that he is destined to leave office in January, the president is seriously contemplating life beyond the White House, telling advisers that he wants to remain an omnipresent force in politics and the media — perhaps by running for the White House again.
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Trump also has been exploring ways to make money for relatively little work, such as giving paid speeches to corporate groups or selling tickets to rallies. In addition, he may try to write a score-settling memoir of his time as president and appear on television, in a paid or unpaid capacity.

Though there has also been considerable chatter among Trump’s associates about his starting a media company of his own, many close to the president said they believe that option is less likely, in part because it would be an arduous undertaking without guaranteed success. These advisers, like some others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss sensitive topics.

There is also pressure on Trump to monetize his post-presidency in light of his personal debt and legal troubles. He has payments due over the next four years of more than $400 million in loans and could incur substantial legal fees related to a number of investigations and lawsuits.
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After Biden’s inauguration, Trump is likely to retreat first to Florida, where he vacations in the winter at his Mar-a-Lago Club, advisers said. While in office, he changed his voter registration from New York to Palm Beach, Fla. People who have discussed plans with Trump said he is likely to immediately get more involved in his businesses in which revenue has plunged.

[Mr. Morden]

O’Brien reportedly told Trump he’d back him in a hypothetical 2024 presidential bid, but Pence and Pompeo were noncommittal:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-26/top-trump-aide-o-brien-shadowed-in-asia-by-u-s-election-tumult

A few days before National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien left for a high-profile tour of southeast Asia, President Donald Trump delivered some news to him, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and Vice President Mike Pence in the Oval Office.

Trump planned to run for president again in 2024, he told the men, if he couldn’t overturn his Nov. 3 defeat by Joe Biden.

“If you do that -- and I think I speak for everybody in the room -- we’re with you 100 percent,” O’Brien responded, according to two people briefed on the conversation. Pompeo and Pence, who are both regarded as contenders for the 2024 Republican nomination, smiled but said nothing, the people said.

O’Brien also gave a non-denial when asked about his own 2024 ambitions:

“It’s silly season in Washington,” O’Brien told reporters traveling with him to Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines, when asked on Monday whether he was considering a run. “I’m happy with my current job, and looking forward to going back to the private sector.”

But he allowed that “people send me text messages and emails” about a potential race.

And then here’s more from O’Brien and his dismissal of presidential ambitions, while also conceding that he won’t give a “Shermanesque” statement, since he doesn’t rule out running for office at some point:

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/527573-obrien-on-2024-talk-theres-all-kinds-of-speculation-out-there

White House national security adviser Robert O’Brien dismissed talk that he could potentially run for president in 2024, calling a recent report about his presidential aspirations “speculation.”

O’Brien, a staunch ally of President Trump, said a recent report from Politico was “what I call Washington inside-the-Beltway article. So I’m fully focused on my current job. I’m not running for anything right now.”

“I’m not going to make a Shermanesque statement about never running under any circumstances, but I’m focused on implementing the president’s agenda, and getting the foreign policy picture for the American people, and that’s all I’m focused on. But this is starting to become silly season for the Washington news media. And you know, there’s all kinds of speculation out there. So I leave that for what it is,” he said on Hugh Hewitt’s radio show.
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O’Brien said he would “never” run against Trump in four years, maintaining the president would “have my 100 percent support.”

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

If Nikki Haley and Tom Cotton were on the GOP ticket, I believe that would be the first time both people on the GOP ticket were from the (arguably Deep) South. (Though the Tommy Tuberville thread is interesting)

Would they beat Kamala Harris plus a member of the Squad?

Yes, but Kamala wouldn't pick a member of the Squad.

[Mr. Morden]

Not sure if Gabbard is actually interested in running for prez again, but this Washington Times story talks about the possibility, and mentions, among other things, that now that she’s leaving Congress, she’s also planning to leave Hawaii and move to California:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/nov/26/tulsi-gabbard-heading-off-to-uncertain-political-f/

The story also mentions that some in the Libertarian Party are trying to court her to join their party.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump is reportedly thinking about doing some kind of 2024 event during inauguration week, and possibly even on Inauguration Day itself:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-already-gaming-out-a-2024-run-including-an-event-during-bidens-inauguration

According to three people familiar with the conversations, the president, who refuses to acknowledge he lost the 2020 election as he clearly did, has not just talked to close advisers and confidants about a potential 2024 run to reclaim the White House but about the specifics of a campaign launch. The conversations have explored, among other things, how Trump could best time his announcement so as to keep the Republican Party behind him for the next four years. Two of these knowledgeable sources said the president has, in the past two weeks, even floated the idea of doing a 2024-related event during Biden’s inauguration week, possibly on Inauguration Day, if his legal effort to steal the 2020 election ultimately fails.

The president and some of his closest associates have already started surveying prominent donors to get a sense of who would be with him, or perhaps against him, if he chose to run in the 2024 election. Some top Trump allies have told The Daily Beast that they are doing what they can to stay in the president’s good graces, calculating that doing so will help ensure a seat at the table and a future in the party—in the event he runs again.

[brucejoel99]

Watch him pull a right-wing AMLO-style "legitimate inauguration."

[longtimelurker]

Trump is reportedly thinking about doing some kind of 2024 event during inauguration week, and possibly even on Inauguration Day itself:

The announcement will be carried live on OANN and Breitbart.  Then Trump will claim that his announcement got better ratings than Biden's inauguration.

[tosk]

https://omaha.com/news/national/govt-and-politics/more-ronald-reagan-less-qanon-nebraskas-ben-sasse-ponders-gop-future-and-his-own-role/article_b58b1fbf-a32c-5471-a375-1020c3b9138a.html

Ben Sasse talking about his future and the GOP's.

Sasse, Rubio and Cotton would like their party to retain control of the chamber, of course, but they have something else in common — they’re all viewed as up-and-coming party leaders who could make presidential runs in 2024.

Sasse begs off when asked about his own White House ambitions, noting that President-elect Joe Biden has yet to even take the oath of office. The perpetual nature of campaigning these days makes voters want to “puke,” Sasse said.

If Sasse decides to go for it, however, he’ll have to deal with Trump, who has suggested he could run to reclaim the presidency in 2024.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump is reportedly thinking about doing some kind of 2024 event during inauguration week, and possibly even on Inauguration Day itself:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-already-gaming-out-a-2024-run-including-an-event-during-bidens-inauguration

Fox News's John Roberts says his sources confirm the Daily Beast's story about a possible campaign launch on or around Inauguration Day.  But he goes further, in saying definitively that "Trump has told advisors that he wants to run again":

https://www.foxnews.com/us/trump-tells-aides-a-big-secret-he-wants-to-run-again-in-2024

President Trump has told advisors that he wants to run again in four years, and could potentially announce his bid before or even during Biden's Inauguration on Jan. 20, according to Fox News’ chief White House correspondent John Roberts, who confirmed a report from The Daily Beast.

Trump has publicly challenged the election result and told reporters last week that he doesn't "want to talk 2024 yet."

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1333958202166218752

[Mr. Morden]

“Preliminary planning” for a Trump 2024 kickoff event on January 20th:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-considers-2024-campaign-kick-inauguration-day-n1249595

President Donald Trump is discussing the possibility of announcing a campaign to retake the White House in 2024 on Inauguration Day and skipping the swearing-in of his successor, according to three people familiar with the discussions.

There is “preliminary planning” underway for a Jan. 20 event to kick off a new Trump bid, the people familiar with the discussions said, though it’s possible the president could make the announcement earlier as no final decisions have been made.

Regardless of the timing of a campaign announcement, Trump is not expected to attend the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden, according to the people familiar with the discussions. He also does not plan to invite Biden to the White House or even call him, they said.

However, while the Jan. 20th event might be the first public event of the ’24 campaign, an announcement of his ’24 candidacy could come as much as a month before that:

Trump has recently told some advisers he wants to announce a 2024 campaign shortly after the Electoral College meets on Dec. 14, the people familiar with the discussions said. If he were to announce earlier, he could still hold a campaign-style event or rally on Jan. 20. The Daily Beast first reported that Trump might hold a rally on Inauguration Day.

If he does launch his campaign shortly after Dec. 14th, then I guess he’d be de facto conceding that he’s lost (even if he maintains that the process was unfair)?  So he’s not going to pin his hopes on more longshot strategies, like pressuring Congress to challenge the results when the electoral vote tally is presented on Jan. 6th?

[tosk]

https://www.axios.com/trump-2024-campaign-primary-cda9abf4-615c-4095-a2aa-1045f2a55970.html

some interesting bits:

On Tuesday night, Trump was explicit about his 2024 vow, telling guests at a White House holiday party, as tweeted by CNN's Kaitlan Collins:

"It’s been an amazing four years. We are trying to do another four years. Otherwise, I'll see you in four years."
The plan: Trump has made plain he'll fight to keep his ally Ronna McDaniel as head of the RNC, giving him tight control over party HQ.

The intrigue: Trump’s 2024 rivals privately tell Axios they assume Trump's power will fade post-White House, giving them hope they can still run.

Reality check: Several allies who talk regularly to Trump told Axios they believe he'll announce for 2024, but ultimately not make the run because of what one Republican close to Trump called "hurdles he has never before experienced."

"I think he will have more trouble than he can begin to imagine," the Republican said. "No one is going to let him have a free pass in the primary."
"The only question left open is whether the media will give up their addiction to him or not — that will determine a great deal."

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a story about GOP congressional reaction to a Trump 2024 run, with Josh Hawley saying "I would support him doing that" [that is, running and becoming the nominee....which I guess is a pseudo-promise to endorse him?].  And Rick Scott says “It’d be great if he ran”, which I guess stops a bit short of saying that he himself would endorse Trump:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/02/republicans-cheer-on-a-trump-2024-run-442310

“If he were to run in 2024, I think he would be the nominee. And I would support him doing that,” said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.). “He’d have a lot of support out in the country.”

“It’d be great if he ran. He’s done a good job. I think he ought to run if he wants to run. Who knows what’s going to happen in ‘24?” said Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who said he is not focused on a presidential run at the moment. “He can sell the things he accomplished.”

Meanwhile, others are not ready to cheer Trump ’24, including potential 2024 candidate Tom Cotton:

Still, not every Republican in Congress felt like chatting about the matter after five years of Trump’s dominance over the party. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said he doesn’t talk about those kinds of hypotheticals. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), a potential presidential candidate, declined to comment. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she hasn’t “thought at all about 2024” and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said it was “too speculative” a topic.

And then Rubio says he thinks Trump would win, but also offers no promise to endorse him in the primary or forego a run of his own:

“We’re so far away from that. I will tell you this. If he runs, I think he would clearly be the favorite. I think he would win,” said Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who ran against Trump in 2016 and has mulled another run in the future. “I know it’s an interesting story, but I have no idea.”

[tosk]

Politico has a story about GOP congressional reaction to a Trump 2024 run, with Josh Hawley saying "I would support him doing that" [that is, running and becoming the nominee....which I guess is a pseudo-promise to endorse him?].  And Rick Scott says “It’d be great if he ran”, which I guess stops a bit short of saying that he himself would endorse Trump:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/02/republicans-cheer-on-a-trump-2024-run-442310

“If he were to run in 2024, I think he would be the nominee. And I would support him doing that,” said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.). “He’d have a lot of support out in the country.”

“It’d be great if he ran. He’s done a good job. I think he ought to run if he wants to run. Who knows what’s going to happen in ‘24?” said Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who said he is not focused on a presidential run at the moment. “He can sell the things he accomplished.”

Meanwhile, others are not ready to cheer Trump ’24, including potential 2024 candidate Tom Cotton:

Still, not every Republican in Congress felt like chatting about the matter after five years of Trump’s dominance over the party. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said he doesn’t talk about those kinds of hypotheticals. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), a potential presidential candidate, declined to comment. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she hasn’t “thought at all about 2024” and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said it was “too speculative” a topic.

And then Rubio says he thinks Trump would win, but also offers no promise to endorse him in the primary or forego a run of his own:

“We’re so far away from that. I will tell you this. If he runs, I think he would clearly be the favorite. I think he would win,” said Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who ran against Trump in 2016 and has mulled another run in the future. “I know it’s an interesting story, but I have no idea.”

sounds like rubio might be one of the candidates who doesn't think trump has the same staying power