The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1632398632186966017?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tbLk...

 There is only room for one candidate in the older 'establishment lane' of the Republican Party (does the pre 1980 Reagan Revolution Eisenhower/Nixon/Ford/Bush lane even exist any more?) and it seems pretty clear that both Governor Asa Hutchinson and Governor Chris Sununu are more determined to run than Hogan ever was. Not sure where Liz Cheney would fit into that.

[2016]

Sununu on Meet The Press today
https://twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1632386099346649088

There is a good chance Sununu doesn't run as well.

https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1632441120398483456

Sununu said there is no doubt in his mind that Governor DeSantis would win New Hampshire if the Election was held today.

Memo to Chris: Don't run! Do what is right and stay out of it.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/schwartzbCNBC/status/1633477008347758600

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/Alex_Roarty/status/1633442645702856704

[emailking]

Pretty sure Sununu was wrong given that NH poll.

[Sir Mohamed]

Pretty sure Sununu was wrong given that NH poll.

More sounded like wishful thinking to me, imho.

[Holmes]

Pretty sure Sununu was wrong given that NH poll.

More sounded like wishful thinking to me, imho.

Yeah, wishcasting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Stuart Rothenberg with a good article surveying the potential GOP field, peppered with Stu's usual wit.  A sample:

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is considering a run. He has a chance, but only if aliens take over planet Earth and install him as the GOP nominee. A down-the-line conservative, Hutchinson tries to be reasonable and doesn’t yell much. That eliminates him.

https://rollcall.com/2023/03/13/the-incredible-shrinking-gop-presidential-field/

[President Johnson]

Stuart Rothenberg with a good article surveying the potential GOP field, peppered with Stu's usual wit.  A sample:

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is considering a run. He has a chance, but only if aliens take over planet Earth and install him as the GOP nominee. A down-the-line conservative, Hutchinson tries to be reasonable and doesn’t yell much. That eliminates him.

https://rollcall.com/2023/03/13/the-incredible-shrinking-gop-presidential-field/

Asa Hurchinson will be the Bobby Jindal of 2024.

[The Mikado]

Does this look right to people for the GOP:

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley

NOT OFFICIALLY IN, BUT OBVIOUSLY RUNNING:

Pence
DeSantis
Pompeo
Hutchinson (AR)

MAYBE:

Scott (SC)
Sununu
Christie

If they all got in that'd be 10, but I'm expecting some in the Maybe category to not run.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Does this look right to people for the GOP:

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley

NOT OFFICIALLY IN, BUT OBVIOUSLY RUNNING:

Pence
DeSantis
Pompeo
Hutchinson (AR)

MAYBE:

Scott (SC)
Sununu
Christie

If they all got in that'd be 10, but I'm expecting some in the Maybe category to not run.

Move Scott (SC) to obviously running, and add in Bolton and Suarez for maybe.

[TheFonz]

Does this look right to people for the GOP:

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley

NOT OFFICIALLY IN, BUT OBVIOUSLY RUNNING:

Pence
DeSantis
Pompeo
Hutchinson (AR)

MAYBE:

Scott (SC)
Sununu
Christie

If they all got in that'd be 10, but I'm expecting some in the Maybe category to not run.

Move Scott (SC) to obviously running, and add in Bolton and Suarez for maybe.

Noem probably deserves a spot in the Maybe category as well.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Does this look right to people for the GOP:

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley

NOT OFFICIALLY IN, BUT OBVIOUSLY RUNNING:

Pence
DeSantis
Pompeo
Hutchinson (AR)

MAYBE:

Scott (SC)
Sununu
Christie

If they all got in that'd be 10, but I'm expecting some in the Maybe category to not run.

Move Scott (SC) to obviously running, and add in Bolton and Suarez for maybe.

Noem probably deserves a spot in the Maybe category as well.

Noem isn't running. She's going to endorse Trump and try to get a VP slot.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/1638128141242703873

[Grumpier Than Thou]

How will this impact the GOP primary?

https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1638960092501655553?s=20

[NewYorkExpress]

How will this impact the GOP primary?

https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1638960092501655553?s=20

I wish.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden team eyes Delaware for 2024 campaign HQ -sources

WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden's team is leaning toward basing his 2024 re-election campaign in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware, and is considering at least three people to serve as his campaign manager, Democratic sources familiar with the matters said.

Biden, who has said he intends to run for re-election but has yet to make a formal announcement, travels regularly on weekends to Wilmington, making it a natural place for political work outside of the White House in Washington.

Philadelphia, home to Biden's 2020 campaign operations, has also been under consideration, the sources said. Biden spent part of his childhood in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and travels regularly to the political battleground state for events.

...

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-team-eyes-delaware-2024-campaign-hq-sources-2023-03-22/

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Biden team eyes Delaware for 2024 campaign HQ -sources

WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden's team is leaning toward basing his 2024 re-election campaign in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware, and is considering at least three people to serve as his campaign manager, Democratic sources familiar with the matters said.

Biden, who has said he intends to run for re-election but has yet to make a formal announcement, travels regularly on weekends to Wilmington, making it a natural place for political work outside of the White House in Washington.

Philadelphia, home to Biden's 2020 campaign operations, has also been under consideration, the sources said. Biden spent part of his childhood in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and travels regularly to the political battleground state for events.

...

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-team-eyes-delaware-2024-campaign-hq-sources-2023-03-22/

I was curious about the candidates for campaign manager, if anyone else is here they are:

The candidates include Julie Chavez Rodriguez, the director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs and a deputy campaign manager of Biden's 2020 campaign, Jenn Ridder, who served as national states director for Biden's 2020 campaign, and Sam Cornale, executive director of the Democratic National Committee.

Senior White House advisers Mike Donilon and Anita Dunn are expected to be closely involved in political strategy going into the re-election as well.

Jen O'Malley Dillon, who served as Biden's campaign manager in 2020, has ruled out returning to the role in 2024, two sources said.

[President Johnson]

Biden team eyes Delaware for 2024 campaign HQ -sources

WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden's team is leaning toward basing his 2024 re-election campaign in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware, and is considering at least three people to serve as his campaign manager, Democratic sources familiar with the matters said.

Biden, who has said he intends to run for re-election but has yet to make a formal announcement, travels regularly on weekends to Wilmington, making it a natural place for political work outside of the White House in Washington.

Philadelphia, home to Biden's 2020 campaign operations, has also been under consideration, the sources said. Biden spent part of his childhood in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and travels regularly to the political battleground state for events.

...

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-team-eyes-delaware-2024-campaign-hq-sources-2023-03-22/

I was curious about the candidates for campaign manager, if anyone else is here they are:

The candidates include Julie Chavez Rodriguez, the director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs and a deputy campaign manager of Biden's 2020 campaign, Jenn Ridder, who served as national states director for Biden's 2020 campaign, and Sam Cornale, executive director of the Democratic National Committee.

Senior White House advisers Mike Donilon and Anita Dunn are expected to be closely involved in political strategy going into the re-election as well.

Jen O'Malley Dillon, who served as Biden's campaign manager in 2020, has ruled out returning to the role in 2024, two sources said.

Dillon probably prefers staying in the White House as she became Deputy Chief of Staff in 2021. Maybe Biden at some point hires her as first female Chief of Staff later on.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Potential candidates for President have to announce their candidacy no later than October or November, right?

From what I remember, filing deadlines for the earliest primary states (SC, NH, NV) are in November - or even as early as October - because overseas ballots have to be sent out long before election day.

Serious candidates can't miss those deadlines.

[FloridaMan1845]

Potential candidates for President have to announce their candidacy no later than October or November, right?

From what I remember, filing deadlines for the earliest primary states (SC, NH, NV) are in November - or even as early as October - because overseas ballots have to be sent out long before election day.

Serious candidates can't miss those deadlines.

My guess is that Pence, Pompeo, Hutchinson, etc are in by March/April, RDS in May, and Chris Christie in June/July/August.

[The Mikado]

Potential candidates for President have to announce their candidacy no later than October or November, right?

From what I remember, filing deadlines for the earliest primary states (SC, NH, NV) are in November - or even as early as October - because overseas ballots have to be sent out long before election day.

Serious candidates can't miss those deadlines.

I think the first filing deadline for a state will be Alabama on November 10th. The deadlines start coming pretty thick in December.

Most people use the beginning of September as the unofficial last chance for late entries, though Mike Bloomberg entered considerably later last cycle in late November, after the first few filing deadlines had already passed.

[The Mikado]

Potential candidates for President have to announce their candidacy no later than October or November, right?

From what I remember, filing deadlines for the earliest primary states (SC, NH, NV) are in November - or even as early as October - because overseas ballots have to be sent out long before election day.

Serious candidates can't miss those deadlines.

My guess is that Pence, Pompeo, Hutchinson, etc are in by March/April, RDS in May, and Chris Christie in June/July/August.

For what it's worth (not necessarily a lot), DeSantis has said he won't announce either way until the end of the Florida legislative session, which ends the first week of June.

[TarHeelDem]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1640124556030484485

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp will not run for President in 2024.