The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[beaver2.0]

Asa Hutchinson sounds like the name of a late 19th century Senator.

[jojoju1998]

Biden is the oldest serving president by three years - Ronald Reagan was 77 at the end of his second term. But Biden is only half-way through his first term, and at the moment seems intent on running again. He will be 82 on Inauguration Day in 2025, and would be 86 at the end of his second term. Donald Trump, who is definitely running again, turned 76 in June. He will be 78 on Inauguration Day in 2025, and would be 82 at the end of a second term. So if 2024 is indeed a Biden-Trump rematch, voters will have no choice but to elect America's first octogenarian president.


Is this a bad thing? Konrad Adenauer served as (West) German Chancellor until he was 87, when he (reluctantly) retired while still in full command of his faculties. There is no necessary connection between ageing and cognitive decline (what used to be called "senility"). But the fact is that most men* over 70 experience some degree of cognitive decline, and both the incidence and degree of decline increase in men over 80. In a minority, this leads to dementia, but for most it is a manageable condition. But the principal reason it is manageable is that most men over 70, and nearly all men over 80, have ceased work, and so the demands on their cognitive faculties are much less than they were earlier in their lives.


There is therefore a definite risk in having a man approaching or over 80 holding the most powerful and demanding job in the world, President of the United States. There is a reason why airline pilots and military officers, among others, have mandatory retirement ages. Although some men are perfectly capable of doing these jobs at 86, many are not, and the risk is thought to be too great. But no such restriction applies to the job of Commander-in-Chief of the most powerful military and the largest nuclear arsenal in the world.


If Biden wins a second term, I would be reasonably confident that he, and if not he then his wife, his doctors and his staff, will be aware of this risk and will monitor his health and his cognitive abilities closely. I'm also confident that they will be willing and able to tell him if they think it is time to quit, and that he will follow their advice.


I have no such confidence about Trump. He has a total lack of self-awareness, he thinks he is a "stable genius", he has consistently lied about his health (as about everything), and he has surrounded himself with toadies who will be too afraid of him to tell him the truth. Many competent observers believe that Trump has been mentally ill for years. This is just one of many reasons why re-electing Trump would a very dangerous disaster for the US and the world.


It is of course by no means certain yet that either Biden or Trump will be their party's nominee for President in 2024. Biden thinks, probably rightly, that he is the best candidate to defeat Trump. So long as Trump is the likely Republican nominee, Biden will remain determined to run again. With two elderly candidates, age will not be a campaign issue. But if Trump either drops out or is defeated in the Republican primaries (which looks increasingly possible), and the Republicans nominate a much younger candidate (Ron DeSantis will be 46 in 2024), then Biden's age certainly will be an issue, and his party will probably pressure him into retirement.


*I say "men" because the incidence of cognitive decline in men is higher than in women. This is apparently because cognitive decline is related to a falling level of testosterone, and men lose testosterone earlier and faster than women.

Pope Francis is 85, turning 86 next month and he's still pope, albeit his health issues have limited him to the wheelchair.

[President Johnson]

Whatever that means...

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1594711487947210753

[NewYorkExpress]

Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas was over the weekend. In attendance was Donald Trump (already announced), Mike Pompeo, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Larry Hogan, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence and Chris Sununu.

[Ferguson97]

Whatever that means...

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1594711487947210753

At first I thought he was sitting on the top of his chair with his hands on his lap and his feet on the desk...

[NewYorkExpress]

Pence's non-profit hires Ali Kjergaard, a spokesman for Ben Sasse. Also, he's heading back to New Hampshire in the New Year.

Former Vice President Mike Pence is building out his political staff, the latest indication that he’s prepping a White House bid that will pit him against his former boss, ex-President Donald Trump.

Ali Kjergaard, a spokesperson for outgoing Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse, has been tapped to serve as communications director for Advancing American Freedom, a Pence-aligned non-profit organization that is serving as the former vice president’s campaign-in-waiting. Those familiar with the hiring process say two additional communications officials are expected to be added sometime early next year. Pence’s team is also looking to bring on fundraising aides.


The staffing additions are the latest step Pence has taken toward launching a 2024 bid. Last week, he released a memoir and made an appearance at the Republican Jewish Coalition conference in Las Vegas, an event that attracted a handful of prospective presidential aspirants. The former vice president spent the last year campaigning across the country for Republican candidates in the midterm election – including in early GOP nominating states like Iowa and New Hampshire.


Pence is expected to continue his political travel into the new year, with a trip to New Hampshire among the potential stops. A Christian evangelical, Pence is also slated to embark on a tour of mega-churches.

So far, the Pence operation totals around two dozen staff and consultants, a group that includes his former chief of staff, Marc Short, and former press secretary, Devin O’Malley, and a veteran GOP strategist, Chip Saltsman. All three are likely to play roles in a 2024 bid.

[Pres Mike]

Pence's non-profit hires Ali Kjergaard, a spokesman for Ben Sasse. Also, he's heading back to New Hampshire in the New Year.

Former Vice President Mike Pence is building out his political staff, the latest indication that he’s prepping a White House bid that will pit him against his former boss, ex-President Donald Trump.

Ali Kjergaard, a spokesperson for outgoing Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse, has been tapped to serve as communications director for Advancing American Freedom, a Pence-aligned non-profit organization that is serving as the former vice president’s campaign-in-waiting. Those familiar with the hiring process say two additional communications officials are expected to be added sometime early next year. Pence’s team is also looking to bring on fundraising aides.


The staffing additions are the latest step Pence has taken toward launching a 2024 bid. Last week, he released a memoir and made an appearance at the Republican Jewish Coalition conference in Las Vegas, an event that attracted a handful of prospective presidential aspirants. The former vice president spent the last year campaigning across the country for Republican candidates in the midterm election – including in early GOP nominating states like Iowa and New Hampshire.


Pence is expected to continue his political travel into the new year, with a trip to New Hampshire among the potential stops. A Christian evangelical, Pence is also slated to embark on a tour of mega-churches.

So far, the Pence operation totals around two dozen staff and consultants, a group that includes his former chief of staff, Marc Short, and former press secretary, Devin O’Malley, and a veteran GOP strategist, Chip Saltsman. All three are likely to play roles in a 2024 bid.

I truly do not understand Pence's logic. He is well hated by MAGA Republicans, who happen to be most of the Republican electorate. Pence would be lucky to get 1%

Suppose Trump doesn't run. DeSantis, Hawley, Cruz are more likely. But lets say Pence somehow becomes the nominee.

Trump hates Pence with a passion. You think Trump will support him? He'll tell his base to stay home or vote third party.

Surely Pence knows this?

[BloJo94]

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1596179910313197568?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

[NewYorkExpress]

Gavin Newsom has told the White House that he won't challenge Biden in 2024.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has won three elections in five years in America’s largest state, is apoplectic about his party’s messaging defects and follows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the right-wing media ecosystem with a zeal that would put some opposition researchers to shame.

But Newsom wants the word to go forth: He’s not going to challenge President Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2024.


“I’ve told everyone in the White House, from the chief of staff to the first lady,” he recounted to me as we sat on the top floor of California’s now-ceremonial governor’s mansion on election night.


His message to Ron Klain and Jill Biden over the summer — when he visited Washington amid growing speculation, and considerable West Wing irritation, that he was plotting a primary challenge — was to count him as a firm supporter of Biden’s reelection: “I’m all in, count me in,” he said he told them.

Newsom relayed the same to Biden himself on election night.

[LostInOhio]

The GOP establishment really needs to make some phone calls and convince Pence not to run. It’s a waste of time and he has to know that he’ll only sap voters from DeSantis and wreck their only chance at defeating Trump.

[President Johnson]

Gavin Newsom has told the White House that he won't challenge Biden in 2024.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has won three elections in five years in America’s largest state, is apoplectic about his party’s messaging defects and follows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the right-wing media ecosystem with a zeal that would put some opposition researchers to shame.

But Newsom wants the word to go forth: He’s not going to challenge President Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2024.


“I’ve told everyone in the White House, from the chief of staff to the first lady,” he recounted to me as we sat on the top floor of California’s now-ceremonial governor’s mansion on election night.


His message to Ron Klain and Jill Biden over the summer — when he visited Washington amid growing speculation, and considerable West Wing irritation, that he was plotting a primary challenge — was to count him as a firm supporter of Biden’s reelection: “I’m all in, count me in,” he said he told them.

Newsom relayed the same to Biden himself on election night.

If Biden wants to run again - which is very likely - nobody serious is going to challenge him. Just some leftist weirdo that will get like three percent or even drop out ahead of any ballots cast.

[Enduro]

Pence's non-profit hires Ali Kjergaard, a spokesman for Ben Sasse. Also, he's heading back to New Hampshire in the New Year.

Former Vice President Mike Pence is building out his political staff, the latest indication that he’s prepping a White House bid that will pit him against his former boss, ex-President Donald Trump.

Ali Kjergaard, a spokesperson for outgoing Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse, has been tapped to serve as communications director for Advancing American Freedom, a Pence-aligned non-profit organization that is serving as the former vice president’s campaign-in-waiting. Those familiar with the hiring process say two additional communications officials are expected to be added sometime early next year. Pence’s team is also looking to bring on fundraising aides.


The staffing additions are the latest step Pence has taken toward launching a 2024 bid. Last week, he released a memoir and made an appearance at the Republican Jewish Coalition conference in Las Vegas, an event that attracted a handful of prospective presidential aspirants. The former vice president spent the last year campaigning across the country for Republican candidates in the midterm election – including in early GOP nominating states like Iowa and New Hampshire.


Pence is expected to continue his political travel into the new year, with a trip to New Hampshire among the potential stops. A Christian evangelical, Pence is also slated to embark on a tour of mega-churches.

So far, the Pence operation totals around two dozen staff and consultants, a group that includes his former chief of staff, Marc Short, and former press secretary, Devin O’Malley, and a veteran GOP strategist, Chip Saltsman. All three are likely to play roles in a 2024 bid.

I truly do not understand Pence's logic. He is well hated by MAGA Republicans, who happen to be most of the Republican electorate. Pence would be lucky to get 1%

Suppose Trump doesn't run. DeSantis, Hawley, Cruz are more likely. But lets say Pence somehow becomes the nominee.

Trump hates Pence with a passion. You think Trump will support him? He'll tell his base to stay home or vote third party.

Surely Pence knows this?

I think it depends on if DeSantis runs; a quick glance at some opinion polling shows Mike Pence in third place, so if DeSantis doesn't run Mike becomes the go to choice to block Trump's nomination.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sinema can still avoid a Primary challenge if she nix the Filibuster in the Lame Duck session of Congress, because we still have the Secular Trifecta but she won't do that so Gallego with Rev Barber said on MSNBC will likely challenge her we don't know what Sinema thinks she never gives Press Conference

Rev Barber as I stated earlier is on the ground in a lot of these states especially MD, GA and PS trying to get Filibuster reform and Rs have Don Jr but Ryan lost because Ds blocked WV pipeline before Eday and Ryan could of used that affirmative vote to get Elected but he also lost because he didn't use Biden and they are friends too

[MarkD]

Gavin Newsom has told the White House that he won't challenge Biden in 2024.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has won three elections in five years in America’s largest state, is apoplectic about his party’s messaging defects and follows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the right-wing media ecosystem with a zeal that would put some opposition researchers to shame.

But Newsom wants the word to go forth: He’s not going to challenge President Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2024.


“I’ve told everyone in the White House, from the chief of staff to the first lady,” he recounted to me as we sat on the top floor of California’s now-ceremonial governor’s mansion on election night.


His message to Ron Klain and Jill Biden over the summer — when he visited Washington amid growing speculation, and considerable West Wing irritation, that he was plotting a primary challenge — was to count him as a firm supporter of Biden’s reelection: “I’m all in, count me in,” he said he told them.

Newsom relayed the same to Biden himself on election night.

But an announcement like this makes it more likely that Newsom will run if incumbent Pres. Biden does drop out of the race (because of a decline in his health).

[Torrain]

DeSantis will be releasing his second book in Feb 2023 - framed basically as a manifesto to run America like Florida.
https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/1597880324716904448

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/nick_field90/status/1597788544516644864

[Agafin]

https://mobile.twitter.com/leezeldin/status/1597714722442588161?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

He's running? Or is this about the RNC chair?

[BloJo94]

[BloJo94]

https://twitter.com/D0m1n8tor/status/1598468965004726272

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/D0m1n8tor/status/1598468965004726272

This is 100% a soft launch for his campaign

[President Johnson]

https://mobile.twitter.com/leezeldin/status/1597714722442588161?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

He's running? Or is this about the RNC chair?

More seems like RNC Chair. Isn't he actually under consideration for that? I admit that he was a case to make for that job.

[SCNCmod]

I think even if Biden runs- like he currently says he is (which I think will change) ... he will end up having main stream challengers.  There will be a groundswell forcing at least 1 main stream challenger- and once they jump in, others will follow.  At that point, I do not think Biden would risk losing a nomination fight.

His age is definitely going to be an issue for a majority of Dem voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1599884730056351745

[SCNCmod]

Post election poll- a majority of Dems think Biden should not run for re-election.

I don't think any Dem president has had a majority of his party think he should not run for a 2nd term... this is why all conventional wisdom saying Biden definitely wins the nomination, is not reliable this year.

Also- I can't think of another example where a party didn't want president to run- due to mental capacity issues (Age in Binden's case).

[NewYorkExpress]

Independent President Campaign announcement imminent?