The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Some updates from Haley and Pompeo about their decision timelines:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republicans-mulling-run-president-not-waiting-trump

"I don't think I have to make that decision until the first of next year," Haley told Fox News. "I've never lost a race. I'm not going to start now.  If there's a place for me, I will put 1000% and we'll finish it."

"We will turn to that very question come the end of this year, the beginning of next year," said Pompeo. "We will pray, we will work."

If Haley runs for president she'll lose her first race then.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

More rumblings from Sacramento.

For weeks, an exasperated Gavin Newsom warned Democrats they need to more aggressively confront Republicans in the national culture wars he’s convinced his party is losing.

In recent days, the California governor signaled to his team that, for now at least, what they’ve referred to internally as his “Paul Revere” phase has gone far enough. But the warnings turned a whisper campaign into something audible: Is the governor positioning himself for a White House run in 2024?

“They don’t know if Biden is going to run or not,” John Morgan, a prominent Biden bundler and attorney from Orlando, Fla., said of Newsom and other potential presidential candidates. “They are thinking, ‘I don’t know if I am going to be at the swim meet or not, but I am going to put my bathing suit on anyway.’”

“He looks like a million dollars,” Morgan added of Newsom. “And he looks at the Democratic bench and he doesn’t see anyone sitting there, so he says, ‘I am going to sit there.’”

[Mr. Morden]

Gabbard asked about 2024:

When asked about a potential run for president in 2024, Gabbard said, "It's not something I'm thinking about."

"I'm really focused on how I can best be a voice for common sense, hold leaders accountable and speak the truth," she said. "

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Gabbard asked about 2024:

When asked about a potential run for president in 2024, Gabbard said, "It's not something I'm thinking about."

"I'm really focused on how I can best be a voice for common sense, hold leaders accountable and speak the truth," she said. "

I could very easily see her either trying to primary Biden or being the VP on an independent Yang ticket.

[NYDem]

Gabbard asked about 2024:

When asked about a potential run for president in 2024, Gabbard said, "It's not something I'm thinking about."

"I'm really focused on how I can best be a voice for common sense, hold leaders accountable and speak the truth," she said. "

I could very easily see her either trying to primary Biden or being the VP on an independent Yang ticket.

I feel like she would be detrimental to a hypothetical independent Yang run.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/wlns/status/1537905438473146369?s=21&t=6p2MepCjY-NZNJH_e...

[Mr. Morden]

Ocasio-Cortez dodges the question on whether she’ll run for president in 2024:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3541704-ocasio-cortez-avoids-question-on-possible-2024-presidential-bid/

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) avoided a question on Tuesday night over whether she would be interested in running for president in 2024.

“Listen, I think that we need to focus on keeping a democracy for anybody to be president in the next couple of years, and that’s my central focus is helping [the] people of this country,” she told Stephen Colbert during an appearance on “The Law Show,” when asked if the job was appealing to her.

“So it’s possible. So it’s possible,” Colbert replied.

“I don’t know about all that,” Ocasio-Cortez said. 

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump not ruling out running on a ticket with DeSantis as VP.

Former President Trump isn’t ruling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as a running mate in a potential 2024 White House bid.

Asked in an interview with Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty on Thursday about the possibility of a Trump-DeSantis ticket in 2024, Trump noted that he has a good relationship with the Florida governor before taking credit for his political success.


“Well, I get along with him,” Trump said. “I was very responsible for his success, because I endorsed him and he went up like a rocket ship.”

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump not ruling out running on a ticket with DeSantis as VP.

Former President Trump isn’t ruling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as a running mate in a potential 2024 White House bid.

Asked in an interview with Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty on Thursday about the possibility of a Trump-DeSantis ticket in 2024, Trump noted that he has a good relationship with the Florida governor before taking credit for his political success.


“Well, I get along with him,” Trump said. “I was very responsible for his success, because I endorsed him and he went up like a rocket ship.”

Clearly a move to put down DeSantis, saying "he would be good as my subservient #2".

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump not ruling out running on a ticket with DeSantis as VP.

Former President Trump isn’t ruling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as a running mate in a potential 2024 White House bid.

Asked in an interview with Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty on Thursday about the possibility of a Trump-DeSantis ticket in 2024, Trump noted that he has a good relationship with the Florida governor before taking credit for his political success.


“Well, I get along with him,” Trump said. “I was very responsible for his success, because I endorsed him and he went up like a rocket ship.”

Clearly a move to put down DeSantis, saying "he would be good as my subservient #2".

Never mind the fact if he picked DeSantis, he'd be surrendering Florida's electoral votes, which he really can't afford, given the 2024 Presidential election probably will be close.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump not ruling out running on a ticket with DeSantis as VP.

Former President Trump isn’t ruling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as a running mate in a potential 2024 White House bid.

Asked in an interview with Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty on Thursday about the possibility of a Trump-DeSantis ticket in 2024, Trump noted that he has a good relationship with the Florida governor before taking credit for his political success.


“Well, I get along with him,” Trump said. “I was very responsible for his success, because I endorsed him and he went up like a rocket ship.”

Clearly a move to put down DeSantis, saying "he would be good as my subservient #2".

Never mind the fact if he picked DeSantis, he'd be surrendering Florida's electoral votes, which he really can't afford, given the 2024 Presidential election probably will be close.

He could always do a Cheney and move back to New York.

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump not ruling out running on a ticket with DeSantis as VP.

Former President Trump isn’t ruling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as a running mate in a potential 2024 White House bid.

Asked in an interview with Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty on Thursday about the possibility of a Trump-DeSantis ticket in 2024, Trump noted that he has a good relationship with the Florida governor before taking credit for his political success.


“Well, I get along with him,” Trump said. “I was very responsible for his success, because I endorsed him and he went up like a rocket ship.”

Clearly a move to put down DeSantis, saying "he would be good as my subservient #2".

Never mind the fact if he picked DeSantis, he'd be surrendering Florida's electoral votes, which he really can't afford, given the 2024 Presidential election probably will be close.

He could always do a Cheney and move back to New York.

Trump left New York because he didn't want to live there because of it's left wing policies.

I doubt Wyoming's politics were why Dick Cheney left.

[Utah Neolib]

Trump not ruling out running on a ticket with DeSantis as VP.

Former President Trump isn’t ruling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as a running mate in a potential 2024 White House bid.

Asked in an interview with Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty on Thursday about the possibility of a Trump-DeSantis ticket in 2024, Trump noted that he has a good relationship with the Florida governor before taking credit for his political success.


“Well, I get along with him,” Trump said. “I was very responsible for his success, because I endorsed him and he went up like a rocket ship.”

Clearly a move to put down DeSantis, saying "he would be good as my subservient #2".

Never mind the fact if he picked DeSantis, he'd be surrendering Florida's electoral votes, which he really can't afford, given the 2024 Presidential election probably will be close.

He could always do a Cheney and move back to New York.

Trump left New York because he didn't want to live there because of it's left wing policies.

I doubt Wyoming's politics were why Dick Cheney left.

Theoretically he could establish residency in Nevada because he has a hotel there.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/united-states/trump-on-the-verge-of-announcing-his-political-future-lindsey-graham/video/f746e6397e668fddcd435220bb52bdca

https://www.salon.com/2022/06/30/infowars-host-alex-jones-says-will-announce-2024-presidency-run-on-july-4th_partner/

Alex Jones and Lindsey Graham both implying they have knowledge that Trump is planning a July 4th announcement.
I doubted he would go for it this early but he might just do it.

[NYDem]

https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/united-states/trump-on-the-verge-of-announcing-his-political-future-lindsey-graham/video/f746e6397e668fddcd435220bb52bdca

https://www.salon.com/2022/06/30/infowars-host-alex-jones-says-will-announce-2024-presidency-run-on-july-4th_partner/

Alex Jones and Lindsey Graham both implying they have knowledge that Trump is planning a July 4th announcement.
I doubted he would go for it this early but he might just do it.

Trump declaring his candidacy before the Midterms would be quite stupid imo. It risks making the 2022 elections about him rather than about Biden, which would be worse for the Republicans.

[Mr. Morden]

Youngkin has shifted on the “Are you going to run for president?” question:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/06/29/youngkin-virginia-2024-president/

Youngkin, a multimillionaire and former private equity executive, used to respond that he is solely focused on his new job in Virginia. More recently, he has begun saying he is “humbled” that so many people “request” that he run.

“I am always humbled by this request, but we have a lot of work to do today in Virginia,” Youngkin told Brian Kilmeade last week, as the “Fox & Friends” co-host queried him about a run during an interview in Richmond. But when Kilmeade pressed him on whether he’d made a decision, Youngkin seemed to acknowledge that he was actively considering a bid, saying, “I have not made a decision yet.”

Youngkin appeared to encourage the speculation in a separate Fox interview that aired Monday, when Kilmeade noted that there’s “a buzz about you running for president.”

“We’ll see what comes next,” Youngkin replied.

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary Clinton on 2024:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cbs-host-calls-out-hillary-clinton-cant-imagine-2024-run-thats-not-no

During an appearance on "CBS Mornings," the former presidential candidate was asked by co-host Gayle King if there was "any scenario" in which she thought about jumping back into the "day to day" of politics. 

"No… but I miss it. I miss it," Clinton replied, before King interjected. 

"There’s no scenario in 2024 that you’d even remotely consider?" she asked.

The 2016 Democratic nominee said that she couldn’t "imagine it. I really can't."

"That’s not a no," King said. 

[NewYorkExpress]

Hillary Clinton on 2024:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cbs-host-calls-out-hillary-clinton-cant-imagine-2024-run-thats-not-no

During an appearance on "CBS Mornings," the former presidential candidate was asked by co-host Gayle King if there was "any scenario" in which she thought about jumping back into the "day to day" of politics. 

"No… but I miss it. I miss it," Clinton replied, before King interjected. 

"There’s no scenario in 2024 that you’d even remotely consider?" she asked.

The 2016 Democratic nominee said that she couldn’t "imagine it. I really can't."

"That’s not a no," King said. 

That's pretty Shermanesque from Hillary Clinton, all things considered.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump not ruling out running on a ticket with DeSantis as VP.

Former President Trump isn’t ruling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as a running mate in a potential 2024 White House bid.

Asked in an interview with Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty on Thursday about the possibility of a Trump-DeSantis ticket in 2024, Trump noted that he has a good relationship with the Florida governor before taking credit for his political success.


“Well, I get along with him,” Trump said. “I was very responsible for his success, because I endorsed him and he went up like a rocket ship.”

Clearly a move to put down DeSantis, saying "he would be good as my subservient #2".

Never mind the fact if he picked DeSantis, he'd be surrendering Florida's electoral votes, which he really can't afford, given the 2024 Presidential election probably will be close.

This is not necessarily true.  The text of the 12th Amendment says: "The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves..."

Florida will have 30 electoral votes in the 2024 election.  So if the Trump/DeSantis ticket wins, it depends on how many total EV they have:

1) 300 EV or more: this is easy.  The Florida electors vote for Trump for President and someone out of state (let's say Ivanka Trump) for VP.  Trump and DeSantis each get at least 270 EV and are elected.

2) 285-289 EV: still not a problem but requires careful coordination.  Half of the Florida electors vote Trump for President, Ivanka for VP; the other half vote Ivanka for President, DeSantis for VP.  Again they both get at least 270 and are elected.

3) 270-284 EV: this is tricker and breaks down to subcases depending on which party controls each chamber of Congress.  Control of the House here means controlling a majority of state delegations, not an overall majority of members.

(a) Republicans control the Senate (regardless of House control): like case 1, the Florida electors vote Trump for President and Ivanka for VP.  Trump is elected, and the VP race goes to the Senate, which elects DeSantis.

(b) Republicans control a majority of state delegations in the House, but don't control the Senate: This is the inverse of (a).  The Florida electors vote Ivanka for President and DeSantis for VP.  DeSantis is elected, and the presidential race goes to the House, which elects Trump.

(c) Republicans control neither chamber.  This is the only problematic case.  The Florida electors vote Trump/Ivanka, which elects Trump but ends up with the Senate electing the Democratic VP candidate.

So Trump and DeSantis both being from Florida is a problem only if they win with fewer than 285 EV *and* Republicans end up in control of neither the Senate nor a majority of state delegations in the House.

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump not ruling out running on a ticket with DeSantis as VP.

Former President Trump isn’t ruling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as a running mate in a potential 2024 White House bid.

Asked in an interview with Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty on Thursday about the possibility of a Trump-DeSantis ticket in 2024, Trump noted that he has a good relationship with the Florida governor before taking credit for his political success.


“Well, I get along with him,” Trump said. “I was very responsible for his success, because I endorsed him and he went up like a rocket ship.”

Clearly a move to put down DeSantis, saying "he would be good as my subservient #2".

Never mind the fact if he picked DeSantis, he'd be surrendering Florida's electoral votes, which he really can't afford, given the 2024 Presidential election probably will be close.

This is not necessarily true.  The text of the 12th Amendment says: "The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves..."

Florida will have 30 electoral votes in the 2024 election.  So if the Trump/DeSantis ticket wins, it depends on how many total EV they have:

1) 300 EV or more: this is easy.  The Florida electors vote for Trump for President and someone out of state (let's say Ivanka Trump) for VP.  Trump and DeSantis each get at least 270 EV and are elected.

2) 285-289 EV: still not a problem but requires careful coordination.  Half of the Florida electors vote Trump for President, Ivanka for VP; the other half vote Ivanka for President, DeSantis for VP.  Again they both get at least 270 and are elected.

3) 270-284 EV: this is tricker and breaks down to subcases depending on which party controls each chamber of Congress.  Control of the House here means controlling a majority of state delegations, not an overall majority of members.

(a) Republicans control the Senate (regardless of House control): like case 1, the Florida electors vote Trump for President and Ivanka for VP.  Trump is elected, and the VP race goes to the Senate, which elects DeSantis.

(b) Republicans control a majority of state delegations in the House, but don't control the Senate: This is the inverse of (a).  The Florida electors vote Ivanka for President and DeSantis for VP.  DeSantis is elected, and the presidential race goes to the House, which elects Trump.

(c) Republicans control neither chamber.  This is the only problematic case.  The Florida electors vote Trump/Ivanka, which elects Trump but ends up with the Senate electing the Democratic VP candidate.

So Trump and DeSantis both being from Florida is a problem only if they win with fewer than 285 EV *and* Republicans end up in control of neither the Senate nor a majority of state delegations in the House.

Never thought about this, but why not change his registration back to NY or Bedminster, NJ?

Cheney did something similar in 2000, when has was actually a TX resident prior and officially went back to WY.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump not ruling out running on a ticket with DeSantis as VP.

Former President Trump isn’t ruling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as a running mate in a potential 2024 White House bid.

Asked in an interview with Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty on Thursday about the possibility of a Trump-DeSantis ticket in 2024, Trump noted that he has a good relationship with the Florida governor before taking credit for his political success.


“Well, I get along with him,” Trump said. “I was very responsible for his success, because I endorsed him and he went up like a rocket ship.”

Clearly a move to put down DeSantis, saying "he would be good as my subservient #2".

Never mind the fact if he picked DeSantis, he'd be surrendering Florida's electoral votes, which he really can't afford, given the 2024 Presidential election probably will be close.

This is not necessarily true.  The text of the 12th Amendment says: "The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves..."

Florida will have 30 electoral votes in the 2024 election.  So if the Trump/DeSantis ticket wins, it depends on how many total EV they have:

1) 300 EV or more: this is easy.  The Florida electors vote for Trump for President and someone out of state (let's say Ivanka Trump) for VP.  Trump and DeSantis each get at least 270 EV and are elected.

2) 285-289 EV: still not a problem but requires careful coordination.  Half of the Florida electors vote Trump for President, Ivanka for VP; the other half vote Ivanka for President, DeSantis for VP.  Again they both get at least 270 and are elected.

3) 270-284 EV: this is tricker and breaks down to subcases depending on which party controls each chamber of Congress.  Control of the House here means controlling a majority of state delegations, not an overall majority of members.

(a) Republicans control the Senate (regardless of House control): like case 1, the Florida electors vote Trump for President and Ivanka for VP.  Trump is elected, and the VP race goes to the Senate, which elects DeSantis.

(b) Republicans control a majority of state delegations in the House, but don't control the Senate: This is the inverse of (a).  The Florida electors vote Ivanka for President and DeSantis for VP.  DeSantis is elected, and the presidential race goes to the House, which elects Trump.

(c) Republicans control neither chamber.  This is the only problematic case.  The Florida electors vote Trump/Ivanka, which elects Trump but ends up with the Senate electing the Democratic VP candidate.

So Trump and DeSantis both being from Florida is a problem only if they win with fewer than 285 EV *and* Republicans end up in control of neither the Senate nor a majority of state delegations in the House.

Never thought about this, but why not change his registration back to NY or Bedminster, NJ?

Cheney did something similar in 2000, when has was actually a TX resident prior and officially went back to WY.

In FL Trump is under the jurisdiction of a friendly state attorney general. In NY or NJ, this would not be the case. While the American justice system is rather reluctant to prosecute rich white men, Trump has a lot of enemies, has committed a lot of crimes, and is also paranoid.

[President Johnson]

Hillary Clinton on 2024:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cbs-host-calls-out-hillary-clinton-cant-imagine-2024-run-thats-not-no

During an appearance on "CBS Mornings," the former presidential candidate was asked by co-host Gayle King if there was "any scenario" in which she thought about jumping back into the "day to day" of politics.

"No… but I miss it. I miss it," Clinton replied, before King interjected.

"There’s no scenario in 2024 that you’d even remotely consider?" she asked.

The 2016 Democratic nominee said that she couldn’t "imagine it. I really can't."

"That’s not a no," King said.

The obsession with Hillary is very unhealthy. When does that ever stop?

The Democratic Party has an incumbent president who repeatedly stated his intention to run for reelection. It's a fantasy debate.

[Comrade Funk]

Hillary Clinton on 2024:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cbs-host-calls-out-hillary-clinton-cant-imagine-2024-run-thats-not-no

During an appearance on "CBS Mornings," the former presidential candidate was asked by co-host Gayle King if there was "any scenario" in which she thought about jumping back into the "day to day" of politics.

"No… but I miss it. I miss it," Clinton replied, before King interjected.

"There’s no scenario in 2024 that you’d even remotely consider?" she asked.

The 2016 Democratic nominee said that she couldn’t "imagine it. I really can't."

"That’s not a no," King said.

The obsession with Hillary is very unhealthy. When does that ever stop?

The Democratic Party has an incumbent president who repeatedly stated his intention to run for reelection. It's a fantasy debate.

The Democratic Party has an uncharismatic 80 year old incumbent with a 35% approval and no enthusiastic base minus Atlas centrists. The reality sucks.

[emailking]

Pres & VP candidate from the same state isn't likely to be a problem, you just have to win by more than half the state's votes. Granted it's more likely to be a problem if it's a big state like Florida. Worst case the VP has to drop out.

[Mr. Morden]

The latest on Trump from the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/01/us/politics/trump-republicans-campaign-2024.html

Republicans are bracing for Donald J. Trump to announce an unusually early bid for the White House, a move designed in part to shield the former president from a stream of damaging revelations emerging from investigations into his attempts to cling to power after losing the 2020 election.

He’s reportedly indicated internally that he might not even warn his own team before he makes an announcement:

The timing of a formal announcement from Mr. Trump remains uncertain. But he recently surprised some advisers by saying he might declare his candidacy on social media without warning even his own team, and aides are scrambling to build out basic campaign infrastructure in time for an announcement as early as this month.

And then from CNN:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/02/politics/trump-campaign-2024-republican/index.html

In recent days, some of Trump's advisers have been reaching out to his closest allies to let them know that the former President is seriously considering an earlier-than-expected announcement. One GOP source familiar with those conversations was told that Trump was considering announcing as soon as the first week of July, while others in his orbit cautioned that he does not currently have the infrastructure in place for a major campaign announcement and "doesn't want this to be a dud," as a person close to Trump described it.
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At one point, members of Trump's staff had discussed a potential early July event in Michigan -- a critical battleground state in the midterms and beyond -- that drew internal speculation as a possible venue for his campaign announcement, but the event was scrapped before any serious planning.
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A person close to Trump who previously said the former President would wait until after Labor Day to toss his hat into the 2024 GOP primary changed their tune earlier this week, saying a September announcement is now "up in the air" and that if Trump does announce early, "it will be July."

"He's sounding a lot more committed lately," added another person close to Trump.