The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Canis]

Idk if Pete's the right guy to do it but Kamala would be pretty vulnerable in the primary according to the polls. Also If Warrens or AOC's in the race and solidify's the progressive wing they could prove to be formidable challengers to Kamala as we'll see though I think Biden's probably gonna be too old to run for reelection but he might we still got 3 years to see how stuff will shape out.

[Mr. Morden]

Axios on Trump’s activities:

https://www.axios.com/trump-2024-running-pence-pompeo-fbbbb404-eb16-445a-a43c-6576a574f6e1.html

Former President Trump is telling most anyone who'll listen he will run again in 2024.
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It's not just idle chatter. Trump is spending much of his time thinking about politics, holding calls with his political team and surveying polling.
   •   Trump is keeping close tabs on his would-be rivals for the nomination — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former V.P. Mike Pence and former SecState Mike Pompeo in particular.
   •   A source close to Trump told me he "is keeping all options open for 2024. With [an 84%] approval rating in the Republican Party, he doesn't need to keep 'close tabs' on anyone."

And then on Pence:

What we're hearing: Trump's most likely opponent is Pence, who — I'm told — has no plans to defer to his former boss.

And speaking of Pence, Ed Kilgore, citing reporting from Pence biographer Tom LoBianco, suggests that Pence is floating a presidential run because of grift.  Here’s LoBianco:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/10/mike-pence-is-already-cashing-in-on-his-potential-2024-run

Mike and Karen Pence are living their best lives. No, really. Almost a year after Donald Trump nearly got them murdered at the Capitol by a band of rioters trying to overturn the election, the former second couple is living in a nearly $2 million mansion in suburban Indianapolis. Mike Pence has a megawatt book deal in the bag … And the two are traveling widely, with Mike Pence getting paid upwards of $100,000 a speech, according to Republicans who spoke on background.

And here’s Kilgore’s take on that:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/10/for-mike-pence-running-for-president-is-a-living.html

You see, Pence is the rare nationally prominent politician who has struggled to make ends meet (at least by the standards of his peers). He and his wife relied on gold-plated public housing — the governor’s mansion in Indiana and the vice-presidential residence in Washington — for the past eight years. He made some bad investment decisions in the past, and stock he had in his family’s gas-station chain became worthless when the company went kaput in 2004. LoBianco quotes an Indiana Republican source saying, “This is the first time they’ve had two pennies to rub together.”

The gravy train depends on Pence continuing to be in the public eye and viewed as a potential future president. And so, as I put it this year, Pence “has to put one foot in front of the other and keep making 2024 ‘lists.’”

[NewYorkExpress]

Marjorie Taylor Greene spoke at an America First rally in Plainfield, Connecticut today.

Protestors and counter protestors are expected to be on hand when a U.S. representative from the state of Georgia comes to visit Saturday.

Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican, is slated to be a guest speaker at an America First Rally hosted by the Quinebaug Citizens Alliance.

[NewYorkExpress]

Roy Blunt went on Meet the Press, and offered some unsolicited advice to the likely Trump 2024 campaign.

Looking ahead to a potential Trump bid to take back the White House, Blunt offered some measured advise.

"He can be a candidate if he wants to be. But again, I think what President Trump could do that would be most helpful right now would be focus on the policies that aren’t working," Blunt suggested. "His policies at the border were working, his regulatory policies were working, his tax policies were working. But we see those policies for Democrats with these narrow majorities they have are not working."

"I hope that’s where he focuses, but I don’t manage his time or his comments," Blunt said.

[AltWorlder]

It's kind of moot, unless Biden announces relatively soon that he isn't running for reelection.

It doesn't mean anything this early on but I always love to read about harebrained schemes cooked up by out of touch frustrated donors.

[Mr. Morden]

The story also describes the book that Pence is currently writing:

The book Pence is currently writing will be a memoir, starting with his childhood but stretching through his time in the Trump administration. He will also address Jan. 6 and the weeks leading up to it, offering his most comprehensive description of the attacks, according to an adviser.

Looks like this book will be released in 2023:

https://people.com/politics/what-the-pences-are-up-to-in-the-wake-of-trump/

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1453462218553675783


"I just wonder, will I be allowed to run for president again if I move to another country? No, I guess I’ll just stick it out..."

[Grumpier Than Thou]

No, really, I insist that he move to another country to find out if he can still run. Please do it.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm 80% convinced Pence will run no matter what, but he'll end up with the most embarrassing dropout of a sitting or former VP since Patatoe Quayle withdrew in 1999.

[Mr. Morden]

Larry Hogan on 2024:

https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2021/10/28/larry-hogan-presidential-candidacy-havent-ruled-it-out/

The topic came up on Thursday when Gov. Hogan made an appearance on “CBS This Morning.” Asked about his political aspirations and whether he was contemplating a White House bid in 2024, the governor was coy.

“I’m not sure that’s fair to say that,” Hogan said. “It’s not quite at that point.”

Saying his focus remains on being Maryland’s governor until he leaves office in 2023, Hogan voiced concerns about the direction of the country and the Republican party. But, he said, he hasn’t made up his mind on if he wants to run for president.

“So, I’m out there trying to steer the conversation to a more civil political debate and talk about solutions for the country, but I haven’t made any decisions about what to do,” said Hogan, who acknowledged that he “hasn’t ruled it out.”

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo’s lost a fair amount of weight this year, fueling more speculation that he’s getting into “presidential campaign” shape:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1450632986509123587

[Mr. Morden]

Tim Scott gives a non-denial when asked if he’ll run for prez in 2024…but does say that he’ll support Trump if he runs for another term:

https://www.postandcourier.com/myrtle-beach/scs-tim-scott-says-of-course-hell-support-trump-if-he-runs-again-in-2024/article_fb6ef822-3a48-11ec-bb98-ab74fc4871ae.html

When asked if he’d support a Trump run he answered “of course” but deflected further questions if he has a desire to run for the Oval Office as well. He added he is focused on his reelection campaign for Senate next year. 

“Well at this point I’m not running for president at all,” he added. “I’m not going to answer a hypothetical question.” 

He also downplayed interest in being Trump’s choice for vice president.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Per Maggie Haberman of Failing New York Times:

https://twitter.com/JohnBerman/status/1455124345525788674

[Mr. Morden]

Buttigieg advisors are trying to shut down talk that he’s considering a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.businessinsider.com/is-pete-buttigieg-running-2024-presidential-primary-campaign-bid-2021-11

A dozen allies of the 39-year-old transportation secretary interviewed by Insider said they didn't expect Buttigieg to jump into a Democratic primary should President Joe Biden not seek a second term and open the door to a wide-open race for his successor.

They said Buttigieg had a long future ahead of him. And they insisted that running against Vice President Kamala Harris, the first Black and first woman vice president, as well as the first person of South Asian descent to hold the office — and someone who has struck a genuine friendship with Buttigieg and his husband, Chasten — was not something he was contemplating.

"Knowing Pete, he's like, ‘F**k no. I don't want to be that person,'" said a Democrat familiar with Buttigieg and Harris' relationship who has been in the room with the two.
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"It's something on the minds of the Washington pundit class, not Pete's," an aide from Buttigieg's 2020 campaign told Insider. "The only conversations about 2024 I've been in are when a reporter asks me about it."

[NewYorkExpress]

Pence was at the University of Iowa yesterday, and told a Trump voter that James Madison was his guide to helping prevent the Trump coup.

Former Vice President Mike Pence said Monday evening that he had looked to Founding Father James Madison as he had certified the 2020 presidential election for Joe Biden, despite pressure from former President Donald Trump to block it.

Asked during an event at the University of Iowa who had told him to buck Trump's plan, Pence responded, "James Madison."

The former vice president also cited the Bible, saying, "Psalm 15 says he who keeps his oath even when it hurts."

He noted that he had written a letter to Congress expressing concern over voting in some states.

"I continue to share those concerns and I support efforts in states to improve voter integrity as has been done in places like Georgia and Arizona and elsewhere," Pence said, even though there is no evidence of widespread voter fraud in any state during the 2020 election.

But, he added, "the only role of the federal government is to open and count the electoral votes that were sent by the states. You've got to be willing to do your duty."

[Coldstream]

Per Maggie Haberman of Failing New York Times:

https://twitter.com/JohnBerman/status/1455124345525788674

I feel like people such as Pence/Pompeo/Hogan who’ve nothing else to run for and/or are termed out are likely to run. Whilst people who’ve got something else to run for and could plausibly be in office till 2026/2028 will wait.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Buttigieg advisors are trying to shut down talk that he’s considering a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.businessinsider.com/is-pete-buttigieg-running-2024-presidential-primary-campaign-bid-2021-11

A dozen allies of the 39-year-old transportation secretary interviewed by Insider said they didn't expect Buttigieg to jump into a Democratic primary should President Joe Biden not seek a second term and open the door to a wide-open race for his successor.

They said Buttigieg had a long future ahead of him. And they insisted that running against Vice President Kamala Harris, the first Black and first woman vice president, as well as the first person of South Asian descent to hold the office — and someone who has struck a genuine friendship with Buttigieg and his husband, Chasten — was not something he was contemplating.

"Knowing Pete, he's like, ‘F**k no. I don't want to be that person,'" said a Democrat familiar with Buttigieg and Harris' relationship who has been in the room with the two.
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"It's something on the minds of the Washington pundit class, not Pete's," an aide from Buttigieg's 2020 campaign told Insider. "The only conversations about 2024 I've been in are when a reporter asks me about it."

Yeah, that makes total sense. Why would Pete run against Kamala in an open primary? He already had trouble garnering black support last time. Imagine being the token white dude running against the first black female VP? Even if Kamala isn't incredibly electable, it would be much more likely for another woman or person of color to successfully challenge her.

[Mr. Morden]

The Republican Jewish Coalition will hold its annual event in Las Vegas, NV in November, and Pence, Pompeo, Haley, and DeSantis will all be speaking there:

https://jewishinsider.com/2021/08/republican-jewish-coalition-presidential-hopefuls/

Looks like Cruz, Rick Scott, Noem, and Christie will also speak there….and Trump will send a video address to the conference:

https://news.yahoo.com/first-major-2024-gop-presidential-155340932.html

In other news, Kinzinger is not ruling out a presidential run (nor a run for governor or senator):

https://news.yahoo.com/rep-adam-kinzinger-says-eyeing-202000344.html

Less than a week after announcing he would not seek reelection to Congress under a Democratic redistricting map, Republican U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger told CNN Thursday he is weighing possible statewide bids for Illinois governor or U.S. senator in next year’s election.

In an interview with the network, the six-term Republican from Channahon said he expected to make a decision on a statewide bid “probably” in January. Candidates are scheduled to begin seeking petition signatures Jan. 13 to appear on the June 28 primary ballot.

Kinzinger also said he would not rule out a potential White House bid in 2024.

“The key is, how do we restore the honor of the party in the country?” Kinzinger told CNN. He said he “definitely” wouldn’t rule out a White House run in 2024.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Buttigieg advisors are trying to shut down talk that he’s considering a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.businessinsider.com/is-pete-buttigieg-running-2024-presidential-primary-campaign-bid-2021-11

A dozen allies of the 39-year-old transportation secretary interviewed by Insider said they didn't expect Buttigieg to jump into a Democratic primary should President Joe Biden not seek a second term and open the door to a wide-open race for his successor.

They said Buttigieg had a long future ahead of him. And they insisted that running against Vice President Kamala Harris, the first Black and first woman vice president, as well as the first person of South Asian descent to hold the office — and someone who has struck a genuine friendship with Buttigieg and his husband, Chasten — was not something he was contemplating.

"Knowing Pete, he's like, ‘F**k no. I don't want to be that person,'" said a Democrat familiar with Buttigieg and Harris' relationship who has been in the room with the two.
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"It's something on the minds of the Washington pundit class, not Pete's," an aide from Buttigieg's 2020 campaign told Insider. "The only conversations about 2024 I've been in are when a reporter asks me about it."

Yeah, that makes total sense. Why would Pete run against Kamala in an open primary? He already had trouble garnering black support last time. Imagine being the token white dude running against the first black female VP? Even if Kamala isn't incredibly electable, it would be much more likely for another woman or person of color to successfully challenge her.

I wish the democratic party would go above a 1st grade level when talking about who to pick for the nominee. Making race and gender the focus of who should be the presidential nominee is so shallow and superficial that I think even calling it 1st grade level analysis is giving it too much credit.

The president - arguably the most powerful person in the world - should be picked on merit/qualifications/special skills/achievements etc, not what their gender or race or whatever is. Should be a pretty simple concept, but for some reason, Joe Biden picked Kamala Harris of all people.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/08/trump-2024-midterms-520276

Former President Donald Trump said he will "probably" wait until after next year's midterm elections to announce whether he will run for president in 2024.

"I think a lot of people will be very happy, frankly, with the decision," Trump told Fox News in an interview published Monday.

Asked about the pack of other Republicans who have been the subject of speculation about a 2024 White House run — including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley — Trump noted that many of the GOP hopefuls have already said they will defer to his decision on whether to run for president.


"We have a lot, they’re all very well-named," he said. "But almost all of them said if I run, they’ll never run."

[NewYorkExpress]

Liz Cheney speaking at St. Anselm College in New Hampshire, says Trump is "war with the Constitution".

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) on Tuesday ripped into former President Trump for being “at war” with the Constitution and condemned GOP leaders who have failed to show courage and reject his lies that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

Americans are “confronting a domestic threat that we’ve never faced before: a former president who's attempting to unravel the foundations of our Constitutional Republic, aided by political leaders who have made themselves willing hostages to this dangerous and irrational man,” Cheney said at a speech in New Hampshire.

On Monday night, she said, Trump was invited by Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and other GOP leaders to keynote the House GOP’s annual fundraising dinner. Trump reportedly said that the true “insurrection was on Nov. 3,” election day, and that the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol was merely a "protest."

“Political leaders who sit silent in the face of these false and dangerous claims are aiding a former president who is at war with the rule of law and the Constitution,” Cheney said.

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Her remarks were delivered Tuesday at St. Anselm College’s Nackey Loeb School of Communication in the early primary state of New Hampshire, a speech that will only fan speculation that Cheney, the 55-year-old daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, could mount a challenge to Trump if he decides to run again in 2024.

[Sir Mohamed]

Some news on Christie:

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1458779057663926286

[Mr. Morden]

Newsweek quotes an anonymous adviser to Stacey Abrams:

https://www.newsweek.com/2021/11/19/can-stacey-abrams-save-democratsagain-1647554.html

"Stacey has a plan, and it's only a surprise to people who haven't paid attention," says an adviser who asked not to be identified to speak freely about her thinking. "She plans to become the first Black woman governor in the United States next year. And then run for president in 2024 if Biden does not, or in 2028 if he does."

For the record, Seth Bringman, spokesman for Abrams, says, "She has neither made nor announced such plans."

[President Johnson]

Newsweek quotes an anonymous adviser to Stacey Abrams:

https://www.newsweek.com/2021/11/19/can-stacey-abrams-save-democratsagain-1647554.html

"Stacey has a plan, and it's only a surprise to people who haven't paid attention," says an adviser who asked not to be identified to speak freely about her thinking. "She plans to become the first Black woman governor in the United States next year. And then run for president in 2024 if Biden does not, or in 2028 if he does."

For the record, Seth Bringman, spokesman for Abrams, says, "She has neither made nor announced such plans."

She should win the governorship first.

[StateBoiler]

Politico with a story today saying that even if Biden says he'll run for another term, a lot of Democratic bigshots are acting like he won't, and Democrats say Harris will not clear the field either if she's the chosen heir.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/14/biden-successor-2024-kamala-harris-522160