The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Gracile]

Pompeo is going to visit Iowa this week:

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1283081699669180418

[President Johnson]

Has anyone noticed that Joe Biden in his recent economic recovery speech twice said that he would create that many jobs "in my first four years alone" and "just in my first term"? I think this may indicate he hasn't settled on being a one-termer already. So if his health permits it, I could see him running for reelection.

[NewYorkExpress]

Has anyone noticed that Joe Biden in his recent economic recovery speech twice said that he would create that many jobs "in my first four years alone" and "just in my first term"? I think this may indicate he hasn't settled on being a one-termer already. So if his health permits it, I could see him running for reelection.

Even as an incumbent, I find it hard to believe an 82 year old Biden would win a Democratic Primary for President.

[brucejoel99]

Has anyone noticed that Joe Biden in his recent economic recovery speech twice said that he would create that many jobs "in my first four years alone" and "just in my first term"? I think this may indicate he hasn't settled on being a one-termer already. So if his health permits it, I could see him running for reelection.

Even as an incumbent, I find it hard to believe an 82 year old Biden would win a Democratic Primary for President.

That's an... interesting take.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/politics/larry-hogan-maryland-book-tour-2024-campaign.html

Hogan has a memoir coming out soon with a virtual tour of sorts.

He isn’t super direct about potential presidential ambition in his interview there, but in this story, he goes as far as saying “I’m not going to rule anything out.”:

"I'm more concerned about what happens with the country and what happens with my party. And, you know, I'm more concerned about making sure there's a future for the Republican Party rather than what my future is in the Republican Party. But, you know, I'm not going to rule anything out," Hogan said.

The governor was ready for the question about whether he will run in 2024, and he knows it will keep coming up.

When asked what it would take for him to see a path to enter the Republican primary, Hogan said, "Well, first of all, I enjoyed being in New Hampshire with you the last time, but look, it's way too early to talk about 2024 because we still have this election going on, but I think regardless of what happens in this November election, both parties are going to re-examine where we're heading and what are we going to do about the politics and where are we going to look to four years later."

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2020/07/16/michelle-obama-announces-new-spotify-podcast-shares-special-guests/5449758002/

So, Michelle Obama is starting a podcast.

I only bring that up in the context of a possible Presidential bid because of some of her guests...

Special guests will include late night host Conan O'Brien; obstetrician-gynecologist Dr. Sharon Malone (who is also the wife of former Attorney General Eric Holder); Obama's older brother and executive director of the National Association of Basketball Coaches Craig Robinson; former Obama White House senior adviser Valerie Jarrett; and journalist Michele Norris.

Valerie Jarrett and Sharon Malone (Eric Holder's wife) stand out for those with a political point of view.

That said, this podcast isn't about politics, but one has to imagine the subject will come up...especially with some guests (like Jarrett.)

[Mr. Morden]

Cotton headed to New Hampshire on July 31st:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cotton-visit-nh-2024-speculation.amp

Fox News confirmed on Thursday that Cotton will headline the Hillsborough County GOP’s Lincoln-Reagan Dinner on July 31. The event is a major fundraiser for Republicans in state’s most populous county. It was originally scheduled for May 1 but postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

[Mr. Morden]

Pence is in South Carolina today:

https://www.wltx.com/article/news/local/vice-president-pence-to-meet-with-governor-discuss-reopening-schools-in-south-carolina-tuesday/101-f9062afc-f1b2-41b3-bf97-15003542a56f

[Mr. Morden]

I also posted this in the VP thread on the 2020 board, but also seems relevant here: At least one potential Biden VP shortlister claims no interest in a 2024 presidential run:

https://twitter.com/joshjame/status/1286006214674055168

[Mr. Morden]

This happened last week, but I guess I missed it at the time:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/sean-hannity-run-for-president-donald-trump-election-coronavirus-brian-kilmeade-a9621431.html

Fox News host Sean Hannity, the conservative media commentator often credited as one of president Donald Trump’s closest confidantes, hinted on live television he may one day launch his own bid for the White House.

The comments came as Hannity opened his show on Tuesday night while exchanging jokes with Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade, who quipped about taking over his popular nightly programme.

“A few year years, it’s all yours,” Hannity said in response. “Who knows, I might run for president. You never know!”

To be clear, Hannity appeared to be making the statement in good humour and did not reveal any specific intentions to run for elected office — still, the comments were sure to add fuel to previous reports that suggested Hannity was eyeing a future in politics after his media career ends.

A New York Magazine profile of the TV host said he has “expressed openness” to the idea of running for office after Mr Trump’s electoral upset victory in the 2016 presidential election. Hannity has also previously joked about running for office with his executive produce Lynda McLaughlin, claiming he was “being vetted more than Obama”.

[RogueBeaver]

Cruz and Cotton will be stumping in Tennessee for Sethi and Hagerty respectively.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie reiterates that he might run for prez again in 2024.  At about the 15:55 mark in this video he's asked about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiy37CumQWA

“I would certainly look at the race in 2024, and I would not back off from that at all."

And then a bit later:

“Maybe 2024 is the time to go after that job again.”

Looks like, uncommonly for a politician seriously plotting a presidential run in a couple of years, Christie is currently spending his time cashing in on being a lobbyist:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/23/chris-christie-cashes-in-on-coronavirus-lobbying-380640

The former New Jersey governor is making big money from businesses trying to tap the gusher of coronavirus relief funds coming from the federal government. Newly filed disclosures show Christie’s firm pulled in $240,000 in less than three months for lobbying the Trump administration on coronavirus aid on behalf of three New Jersey hospital systems and a Tennessee-based chain of addiction treatment centers.
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Christie is hardly the first former governor to land on K Street. But it’s unusual for a former presidential candidate who hasn't ruled out running again to become a lobbyist, especially without joining a major Washington firm. And he’s off to a fast start pulling in business: Christie registered to lobby for the first time only last month, in the middle of a lobbying boom fueled by the federal government’s multitrillion-dollar response to the pandemic.

[NewYorkExpress]

Christie reiterates that he might run for prez again in 2024.  At about the 15:55 mark in this video he's asked about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiy37CumQWA

“I would certainly look at the race in 2024, and I would not back off from that at all."

And then a bit later:

“Maybe 2024 is the time to go after that job again.”

Looks like, uncommonly for a politician seriously plotting a presidential run in a couple of years, Christie is currently spending his time cashing in on being a lobbyist:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/23/chris-christie-cashes-in-on-coronavirus-lobbying-380640

The former New Jersey governor is making big money from businesses trying to tap the gusher of coronavirus relief funds coming from the federal government. Newly filed disclosures show Christie’s firm pulled in $240,000 in less than three months for lobbying the Trump administration on coronavirus aid on behalf of three New Jersey hospital systems and a Tennessee-based chain of addiction treatment centers.
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Christie is hardly the first former governor to land on K Street. But it’s unusual for a former presidential candidate who hasn't ruled out running again to become a lobbyist, especially without joining a major Washington firm. And he’s off to a fast start pulling in business: Christie registered to lobby for the first time only last month, in the middle of a lobbying boom fueled by the federal government’s multitrillion-dollar response to the pandemic.

Hillary Clinton was essentially a lobbyist in all but name between 2013 and 2015.

[The Ex-Factor]

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said Sunday that he would not support any future nominee for the Supreme Court unless they had publicly stated before their nomination that Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that established federal protection for abortion, was “wrongly decided.”

“I will vote only for those Supreme Court nominees who have explicitly acknowledged that Roe v. Wade is wrongly decided,” Hawley said in an interview with The Washington Post. “By explicitly acknowledged, I mean on the record and before they were nominated.”

Hawley added: “I don’t want private assurances from candidates. I don’t want to hear about their personal views, one way or another. I’m not looking for forecasts about how they may vote in the future or predications. I don’t want any of that. I want to see on the record, as part of their record, that they have acknowledged in some forum that Roe v. Wade, as a legal matter, is wrongly decided.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sen-hawley-lays-down-new-antiabortion-marker-for-supreme-court-nominees/2020/07/26/52ed360a-cf73-11ea-8d32-1ebf4e9d8e0d_story.html

I could see Hawley making this a litmus test in the 2024 primaries, forcing every Republican to take a similar stance.

[brucejoel99]

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said Sunday that he would not support any future nominee for the Supreme Court unless they had publicly stated before their nomination that Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that established federal protection for abortion, was “wrongly decided.”

“I will vote only for those Supreme Court nominees who have explicitly acknowledged that Roe v. Wade is wrongly decided,” Hawley said in an interview with The Washington Post. “By explicitly acknowledged, I mean on the record and before they were nominated.”

Hawley added: “I don’t want private assurances from candidates. I don’t want to hear about their personal views, one way or another. I’m not looking for forecasts about how they may vote in the future or predications. I don’t want any of that. I want to see on the record, as part of their record, that they have acknowledged in some forum that Roe v. Wade, as a legal matter, is wrongly decided.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sen-hawley-lays-down-new-antiabortion-marker-for-supreme-court-nominees/2020/07/26/52ed360a-cf73-11ea-8d32-1ebf4e9d8e0d_story.html

I could see Hawley making this a litmus test in the 2024 primaries, forcing every Republican to take a similar stance.

So he wants activist judges? Hmm, guess it was just always projection on their part.

[President Johnson]

Larry Hogan appeared on Morning Joe today, talking about his book. He's actually a likeable and pragmatic leader, but I don't see him as Republican nominee. He's much too moderate and reasonable.

[GAProgressive]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2020/07/16/michelle-obama-announces-new-spotify-podcast-shares-special-guests/5449758002/

So, Michelle Obama is starting a podcast.

I only bring that up in the context of a possible Presidential bid because of some of her guests...

Special guests will include late night host Conan O'Brien; obstetrician-gynecologist Dr. Sharon Malone (who is also the wife of former Attorney General Eric Holder); Obama's older brother and executive director of the National Association of Basketball Coaches Craig Robinson; former Obama White House senior adviser Valerie Jarrett; and journalist Michele Norris.

Valerie Jarrett and Sharon Malone (Eric Holder's wife) stand out for those with a political point of view.

That said, this podcast isn't about politics, but one has to imagine the subject will come up...especially with some guests (like Jarrett.)

Conan 2024!

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/TomCottonAR/status/1289278853722992640

[MarkD]

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said Sunday that he would not support any future nominee for the Supreme Court unless they had publicly stated before their nomination that Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that established federal protection for abortion, was “wrongly decided.”

“I will vote only for those Supreme Court nominees who have explicitly acknowledged that Roe v. Wade is wrongly decided,” Hawley said in an interview with The Washington Post. “By explicitly acknowledged, I mean on the record and before they were nominated.”

Hawley added: “I don’t want private assurances from candidates. I don’t want to hear about their personal views, one way or another. I’m not looking for forecasts about how they may vote in the future or predications. I don’t want any of that. I want to see on the record, as part of their record, that they have acknowledged in some forum that Roe v. Wade, as a legal matter, is wrongly decided.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sen-hawley-lays-down-new-antiabortion-marker-for-supreme-court-nominees/2020/07/26/52ed360a-cf73-11ea-8d32-1ebf4e9d8e0d_story.html

I could see Hawley making this a litmus test in the 2024 primaries, forcing every Republican to take a similar stance.

So he wants activist judges? Hmm, guess it was just always projection on their part.

No, wanting Roe v. Wade to be overturned does not mean wanting "activist judges." It's a pretty mixed-up definition of "activism" to say that it means wanting to overturn precedent. Judicial activism is best defined as judges basing their decisions on their own political or personal considerations rather than existing law. Activism is not best defined by a desire to overturn precedent.

Brown v. Board of Education was a unanimous decision of the Court to overturn a certain precedent on the subject of whether "separate but equal" public facilities would violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. If all nine Justices did overturn Plessy v. Ferguson, does that mean they were all "judicial activists"? One of the nine Justices in Brown was Felix Frankfurter, who was a member of the Court most often remembered for his advocacy of "judicial restraint" (the opposite of activism). The very first year Frankfurter served on the Court, he participated in a Court decision to overturn a precedent, he wrote a concurring opinion, and in that opinion he stated that "the ultimate touchstone of constitutionality is the Constitution itself and not what we have said about it [before]." (See Graves v. New York, 306 U.S. 466, 491-92 (1939).)

Sen. Hawley is correct that Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided and that it should be overturned. Roe was based on the personal beliefs of the seven Justices who decided that case that abortion is constitutionally protected because it ought to be constitutionally protected. It was judicial activism. Overturning it would be judicial restraint.

(I don't 100% agree with Hawley about having this criteria in selecting who should be appointed to the Court. The "ultimate touchstone" of who should be appointed should be based on assessing the appointees' commitment to being an objective interpreter of law, not in assessing whether they will correctly decide cases dealing with just one issue like abortion. What Hawley is suggesting is like me saying that I will only support the appointment of people to the Court if they are committed to upholding the precedent of West Virginia State Board of Education v. Barnette. Yes, that's a precedent that hopefully will never be overturned, but it is way too short-sighted to insist that being committed to that precedent is the most important thing to consider when I choose who I will vote to confirm for the Supreme Court.)

[Mr. Morden]

During his NH trip, Cotton was asked about 2024 and he dodged.  Asked again if it was something he was even thinking about, he gave a non-answer:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cotton-help-republicans-trip-2024-speculation

“I know that that kind of speculation is common in politics but I’m here because I’m focused on the 2020 election,” Cotton emphasized. “I could avoid that speculation by not coming but New Hampshire could be the center of the political universe and that’s why I’m here. The four electoral votes in New Hampshire could make the difference the way the other states break on whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins this election.”
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Cotton didn’t reveal any cards, telling Fox News: “I want to make America a safe prosperous, and great country…. I’m going to be traveling all around the country to make sure that Republicans win.”
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Asked again if a potential White House run in 2024 is something he’s mulling, Cotton answered “I’ll continue to try to focus on the ways we can make America a better place for all of our citizens in any way whatsoever.”

[Mr. Morden]

Speaking of Cotton, he’s also using his 501(c)4 group to run digital ads Democratic candidates for Congress on China policy.  The adds are running around the country, rather than in his home state of Arkansas:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-stealthy-play-to-make-swing-state-republicans-love-tom-cotton?ref=home

And then, in more 2024 news, Christie again said he might run in 2024:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/absolutely-chris-christie-considering-presidential-bid-in-2024

"I certainly wouldn't foreclose any possibility, right? So, might I consider running? Sure, absolutely. I'm 57 years old. I still am very involved in political life and public life in this country and have a lot of opinions about where the country should be headed and how it should be managed," Christie said on Friday.

"So I certainly wouldn't discount, you know, me running again in 2024," he added.

Also, Rick Scott might be vying to lead the NRSC for the 2022 midterms, perhaps to set himself up for a 2024 presidential run:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1289234240530296832

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1291114808935317505

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1291114808935317505

"I hope to run again" sounds very confident, in a climate where 80% of the people regularly give non-answers to journalists.

[Canis]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfGQ6UizqcU
Hes running

[Grumpier Than Thou]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfGQ6UizqcU
Hes running

Yep sounds like it