rhg2052
Jr. Member
Posts: 827
Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.78
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« on: November 27, 2019, 02:27:58 PM » |
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He definitely would still have a shot, but it depends on which scenario it ends up in.
Any of Buttigieg/Warren/Sanders sweeps the first three, and Biden is below 2nd place in at least two: Biden is done. Three consecutive weeks of coverage of how Biden is losing to not one, but multiple candidates, will sway a lot of voters who back Biden because of the electability argument. Whoever sweeps the first three states immediately becomes the frontrunner.
Any of Buttigieg/Warren/Sanders sweeps the first three, but Biden comes in 2nd place in at least two:
Biden does not win the nomination, but he will be one of the final two. Biden will still sweep much of the South, but the rest of the field becomes unified behind one other candidate early and he ultimately will lose.
Buttigieg wins IA and NH, Warren or Sanders wins NV: Biden wins the nomination.
The Chaos Scenario (IA-Buttigieg, NH-Warren, NV-Sanders, SC-Biden): I mean, Biden probably wins here because of a lack of unified opposition but honestly who tf knows? Contested Convention?
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