Is Biden done if he loses Iowa, NH and Nevada?
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  Is Biden done if he loses Iowa, NH and Nevada?
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Question: Is Biden done if he loses the 3 states?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 88

Author Topic: Is Biden done if he loses Iowa, NH and Nevada?  (Read 3636 times)
RGM2609
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« on: November 27, 2019, 01:48:04 PM »

If Biden loses all 3 of them, in a not too unlikely scenario, would his campaign be doomed or would he still have a shot at the nomination?
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GP270watch
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« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2019, 01:51:37 PM »

No unfortunately.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2019, 01:57:05 PM »

Biden could lose all three and still lead in the delegate count.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2019, 02:09:25 PM »

We're defining "losing" as "not coming in first," right? If Biden comes in a close second to Buttigieg in IA, Sanders in NH, and Warren in NV, he's not only not done, he's probably the front runner.

EDIT: If he can't win SC, however, he's in serious doo-doo.
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izixs
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« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2019, 02:12:22 PM »

I'd say it really depends on how he loses. Going in 4th in Iowa probably means he's done in New Hampshire. If he can't manage at least a second place there, his air of being the default candidate for a section of the electorate will be over and folks will actively consider other options, which means Nevada is going to be a struggle for him. If he then also loses Nevada, even coming in second, then his inevitability is done with. He may yet win South Carolina, but if there is but one or even two major competitors left in consideration, don't expect it to be a solid win, and don't expect it to carry him that far into Super Tuesday outside the south.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2019, 02:16:44 PM »

No, and wont lose NV, only Sanders tops him in Latino support and Sanders trails Biden in NV. SC is his freiwall
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RGM2609
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« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2019, 02:17:48 PM »

Going in 4th in Iowa probably means he's done in New Hampshire.
Interesting. If he manages to surpass Sanders in Iowa and come in third as most poll suggest, would he be more likely to win NH?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2019, 02:20:10 PM »

No, and wont lose NV, only Sanders tops him in Latino support and Sanders trails Biden in NV. SC is his freiwall
I disagree with the Nevada thing. If Buttigieg for example manages to win IA and NH, he will likely steal enough votes from Biden to put Sanders into a narrow first.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2019, 02:20:41 PM »

His states will be the south, so no, not done, just yuge blow.
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rhg2052
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« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2019, 02:27:58 PM »

He definitely would still have a shot, but it depends on which scenario it ends up in.

Any of Buttigieg/Warren/Sanders sweeps the first three, and Biden is below 2nd place in at least two: Biden is done. Three consecutive weeks of coverage of how Biden is losing to not one, but multiple candidates, will sway a lot of voters who back Biden because of the electability argument. Whoever sweeps the first three states immediately becomes the frontrunner.

Any of Buttigieg/Warren/Sanders sweeps the first three, but Biden comes in 2nd place in at least two:
Biden does not win the nomination, but he will be one of the final two. Biden will still sweep much of the South, but the rest of the field becomes unified behind one other candidate early and he ultimately will lose.

Buttigieg wins IA and NH, Warren or Sanders wins NV: Biden wins the nomination.

The Chaos Scenario (IA-Buttigieg, NH-Warren, NV-Sanders, SC-Biden): I mean, Biden probably wins here because of a lack of unified opposition but honestly who tf knows? Contested Convention?
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2019, 05:00:28 PM »

No, but if the same candidate wins all three, and Biden doesn't at least come close, it's very bad for him.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2019, 05:01:16 PM »

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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2019, 05:03:40 PM »
« Edited: November 27, 2019, 06:18:17 PM by Lord Halifax »


The Chaos Scenario (IA-Buttigieg, NH-Warren, NV-Sanders, SC-Biden): I mean, Biden probably wins here because of a lack of unified opposition but honestly who tf knows? Contested Convention?

How about IA-Buttigieg, NH-Sanders, NV-Sanders, SC-Biden?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2019, 05:21:13 PM »


The Chaos Scenario (IA-Buttigieg, NH-Warren, NV-Sanders, SC-Biden): I mean, Biden probably wins here because of a lack of unified opposition but honestly who tf knows? Contested Convention?

How about IA-Buttigieg, NH-Sanders, NV-Sanders, SC-Biden? That seems more likely.
I disagree. NH, with its older liberals, seems like tailor-made for Warren.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2019, 05:24:01 PM »

No, he isn't, but it will look bad. The California contest has more delegates than all these states combined, and he will get the Superdelegates.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #15 on: November 27, 2019, 05:47:42 PM »

Hillary and Bernie were not done in 2008 and 2016 despite losing 2/3 of these, not sure why Biden would be done then...even if losing IA would likely be a bad sign anyway.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #16 on: November 27, 2019, 05:58:09 PM »

Hillary and Bernie were not done in 2008 and 2016 despite losing 2/3 of these, not sure why Biden would be done then...even if losing IA would likely be a bad sign anyway.
They were not facing a field containing 20 people
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Kleine Scheiße
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« Reply #17 on: November 27, 2019, 06:03:03 PM »

If two or more candidates split those victories, and Joe Biden can take second place in any one of them, he's damaged but still in the race.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #18 on: November 27, 2019, 06:12:06 PM »


The Chaos Scenario (IA-Buttigieg, NH-Warren, NV-Sanders, SC-Biden): I mean, Biden probably wins here because of a lack of unified opposition but honestly who tf knows? Contested Convention?

How about IA-Buttigieg, NH-Sanders, NV-Sanders, SC-Biden? That seems more likely.
I disagree. NH, with its older liberals, seems like tailor-made for Warren.
Right now she is losing them to Buttigieg, I think Warren blew it. Anyway, you didn't answer my question.
I wasn't the one writing the analysis, but anyway, if Sanders wins NH and NV, he is probably the frontrunner. Warren will be out by Super Tuesday and most of her supporters will defect to Sanders, while Biden can't unite the moderates because of Buttigieg, who will not drop out soon enough because of his IA win. Sanders will be a narrow presumptive nominee at the convention.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #19 on: November 27, 2019, 07:09:03 PM »

If Biden runs up the margins in southern states, as it looks like he will, there is no reason to assume that losses in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada will do him in. All they may do is get him some bad press in the days leading up to those primaries, like what happened with Clinton only barely winning Iowa and losing New Hampshire in 2016.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #20 on: November 27, 2019, 08:53:16 PM »

No, there are still a dozen candidates so it's not likely any one candidate will win all three of those and they aren't representative of most of the country. 
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #21 on: November 27, 2019, 09:24:13 PM »

It would be very dependent on a bunch of factors (margin, if one candidate sweeps or multiple candidates split the states, etc.).
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #22 on: November 27, 2019, 10:18:17 PM »

It would be very dependent on a bunch of factors (margin, if one candidate sweeps or multiple candidates split the states, etc.).

This.
But in general, the answer is really "No."
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538Electoral
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« Reply #23 on: November 27, 2019, 11:51:33 PM »

No but it wouldn't be a great sign.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #24 on: November 28, 2019, 07:28:34 AM »

No. He can still win easily without those three.
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