How does Warren make a comeback?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She doesnt, Biden is the most electable one; subsequently,  Biden has weathered the storm, after Super Tuesday,  he will be the presumptive nominee

[RI]

Warren needs to speak directly to Buttigieg and Sanders leaners as well as her own leaners to shore them up.

I have no idea what this is supposed to mean.  Isn’t it the strategy of every campaign to try to win the persuadable voters?  

In theory, yes. But especially in crowded primaries in caucus states, winning by turning out your base can be just as effective. That appears to be quickly disappearing as an option for Warren. She needs to identify Buttigieg's and Sanders' softest supporters and bring them towards her without putting off their core supporters who she needs to move towards her on caucus night if/when Buttigieg and Sanders become inviable in certain precincts.

A win in Iowa for Warren probably shores up New Hampshire (the same would likely happen for Bernie as well), whereas a Buttigieg or Biden victory in Iowa makes NH a bit more of a contest.

I know I'll cop flak for this, but I think Warren's waffling on Medicare for All probably cost her some left-wing support. If she goes all out on it, it would work in her favour.

Would anyone believe her, though?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Warren needs to speak directly to Buttigieg and Sanders leaners as well as her own leaners to shore them up.

I have no idea what this is supposed to mean.  Isn’t it the strategy of every campaign to try to win the persuadable voters?  

In theory, yes. But especially in crowded primaries in caucus states, winning by turning out your base can be just as effective. That appears to be quickly disappearing as an option for Warren. She needs to identify Buttigieg's and Sanders' softest supporters and bring them towards her without putting off their core supporters who she needs to move towards her on caucus night if/when Buttigieg and Sanders become inviable in certain precincts.

A win in Iowa for Warren probably shores up New Hampshire (the same would likely happen for Bernie as well), whereas a Buttigieg or Biden victory in Iowa makes NH a bit more of a contest.

I know I'll cop flak for this, but I think Warren's waffling on Medicare for All probably cost her some left-wing support. If she goes all out on it, it would work in her favour.

Would anyone believe her, though?

She was for it before she was against it!

[GoTfan]

Warren needs to speak directly to Buttigieg and Sanders leaners as well as her own leaners to shore them up.

I have no idea what this is supposed to mean.  Isn’t it the strategy of every campaign to try to win the persuadable voters?  

In theory, yes. But especially in crowded primaries in caucus states, winning by turning out your base can be just as effective. That appears to be quickly disappearing as an option for Warren. She needs to identify Buttigieg's and Sanders' softest supporters and bring them towards her without putting off their core supporters who she needs to move towards her on caucus night if/when Buttigieg and Sanders become inviable in certain precincts.

A win in Iowa for Warren probably shores up New Hampshire (the same would likely happen for Bernie as well), whereas a Buttigieg or Biden victory in Iowa makes NH a bit more of a contest.

I know I'll cop flak for this, but I think Warren's waffling on Medicare for All probably cost her some left-wing support. If she goes all out on it, it would work in her favour.

Would anyone believe her, though?

That's the question. Personally, I don't know why progressives chose to believe Harry Reid over her, but I digress. She needs to go full-force on it ASAP.

[AN63093]

I don’t really think she needs to -do- anything really differently.  For the time being, she just needs to keep up her steady performances to still be amongst the final candidates once the field gets down to 3 or 4.  Being in the lead isn’t really worth that much right now, you just need to be in the race.

This.  Warren got to where she was not by relying on gimmicks, but because she organically and gradually built a real base over time based on two things- a) advocating strongly for certain issues that progressives liked; and b) she is the right demographics for a large part of the base (i.e., she looks/sounds like what a lot of people envision as president).

If she tries something completely 180 from what she's doing, there's an equal likelihood it'll come off as gimmicky and/or desperate.  She's probably back down to her original base right now, but that's not necessarily a problem- I think RFK is right that there is a faction of the Dem base that is just fickle, they came to Warren recently, but really started with Harris.  Maybe they left over Medicare For All, maybe not.. I think if it wasn't that, it probably would've just been something else.

Now they're with Buttigieg, and one of two things will happen- either he will merely be the next "flavor of the month" and implode all on his own, and this fickle part of the Dem base will move on.  In that case, Warren just needs to be in position in IA/NH to take the support back.  Or they will settle on Buttigieg as their guy.. and if that's the case, then that means they truly think he's the right person for the moment, which is probably not a decision being made on policy grounds.  It's unlikely that Warren can do anything about that, so there's no point in worrying about it or trying to plan for that.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't think she comes back. Her biggest mistake was releasing her plans for Medicare for All. Bernie didn't fall for that. Once people saw that her plan would be DOA, not to mention unconstitutional, they looked elsewhere.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

The thing that most Warren doom-and-gloomers are missing is that Warren is still one of the most popular candidates in the primary. People here are acting like she's a pariah.


(twitter)

If there's ever anything that causes a dip in any of these candidates Warren is poised to be the primary benefactor. It's not a guarantee that she recovers; Biden and Sanders have had mostly steady support since the race started. But every other candidate to get above 5% has had fluctuating support. When somebody besides Warren starts bleeding voters it's likely that Warren will pick up most of them.

Also the talking point that Warren's entirety of support was from white collar professionals is a Bernie camp lie that got repeated often enough that it got accepted as fact.

[John Dule]

Uh-oh-- here we go again! Time for another spin!

[ProudModerate2]

Warren continues on a sharp slide in her RCP average for the nomination.
Since her high-point in early October, she has fallen almost 13 points.
That's quite large.
What has happened to cause such a large decline in support for Warren?
And will it stabilize, or will the down-trend continue?

[GeneralMacArthur]

She got her first smidgeon of critical coverage and collapsed, as I predicted the moment her rise began.

She is not a good politician and her positions are indefensible.  She has survived this long on media goodwill due to, among other reasons:
Desire for an alternative to Biden
Desire to a fresh progressive alternative to Sanders
Media people impressed with her cutesy selfie strategy

[Grassroots]

Nothing. Sanders is currently in the process of absorbing all of her momentum.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Well she kinda kamikazed herself, but she’s come back from the dead before (DNA thing). I wouldn’t write her off just yet,  but it’s basically do or die for her in Iowa and NH where she needs to win at least one of them

[Shadows]

Warren continues on a sharp slide in her RCP average for the nomination.
Since her high-point in early October, she has fallen almost 13 points.
That's quite large.
What has happened to cause such a large decline in support for Warren?
And will it stabilize, or will the down-trend continue?

She has lost progressives to Sanders & moderates to Pete. Probably more to Pete. Going by this graph, I would say 7% to Pete, 4% odd to Sanders & maybe 2% to Biden & others combined.

There is a somewhat moderate white rich boomer & above 45 bloc which is shifting from Beto to Harris to Warren to Pete in search of a fresh face. It is such a fickle demographic. This 7% odd bloc got Pete to 11-12% from 5%, it has got Beto to 11-12%, it got Kamala to 15% (That & some Black Biden voters), it got Warren to 15% (That & some Sanders voters who has since gone home). I am not sure that bloc is even a reliable voting bloc for any candidate.

If Warren doesn't have a strong debate & loses her momentum, she will bleed more Bernie 2016 voters since Sanders is now the 2nd choice. She needs an incredibly strong debate & she needs to take voters away from Pete.

[Shadows]

Well she kinda kamikazed herself, but she’s come back from the dead before (DNA thing). I wouldn’t write her off just yet,  but it’s basically do or die for her in Iowa and NH where she needs to win at least one of them

She is currently polling 3rd behind Pete & Sanders. Sanders is leading in the last 2 NH polls & Pete has some momentum too. In Iowa, Pete is leading with Bernie, Warren & Biden all behind. It is a fluid race & anything can happen. Any of the 4 contenders can win Iowa or NH.

But if current trend persists & Pete wins Iowa with Sanders 2nd & if Sanders wins NH with Pete 2nd, then Warren has to drop out after NH. She has to win 1 of the 2. She can't lose Iowa to Pete & NH to Sanders while being from Massachusetts. She anyways was going to lose Nevada & South Carolina which makes Iowa/NH all the more important.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is beatable, Dems arent gonna risk losing the election over nominating a socialist.  Obama said that he would only step in, if Bernie Sanders is cruising to nomination,  and Warren is a socialist, too.

Bernie only did well in 2016, due to impending indictment of Hilary,  he was the fallback person. But, 2016, just like 2020, is a change election
 Trump would of beaten Bernie anyways

[Pericles]

Well she kinda kamikazed herself, but she’s come back from the dead before (DNA thing). I wouldn’t write her off just yet,  but it’s basically do or die for her in Iowa and NH where she needs to win at least one of them

She is currently polling 3rd behind Pete & Sanders. Sanders is leading in the last 2 NH polls & Pete has some momentum too. In Iowa, Pete is leading with Bernie, Warren & Biden all behind. It is a fluid race & anything can happen. Any of the 4 contenders can win Iowa or NH.

But if current trend persists & Pete wins Iowa with Sanders 2nd & if Sanders wins NH with Pete 2nd, then Warren has to drop out after NH. She has to win 1 of the 2. She can't lose Iowa to Pete & NH to Sanders while being from Massachusetts. She anyways was going to lose Nevada & South Carolina which makes Iowa/NH all the more important.

Agree that Warren has to win IA and/or NH, but her chances are better than you portray them to be and she can win Nevada. Nevada is not the same as South Carolina. Also the 'if current trend persists' point is a big if. Trends with two months to go before the primaries start often don't persist.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Nothing. Sanders is currently in the process of absorbing all of her momentum.

Sanders will, indeed, absorb this because he's nothing if not genuine.  Warren is a phony, and the way she's ended up being for M4A before she was against it will allow Trump to do his Pocahontas schick, and it will resonate with people that don't like phonies.  

This seems weird because Warren had been doing so well, running a masterful campaign.  The flip-flop on M4A, coupled with the flaws in her plan being exposed, have made her look flat-out bad.  

[Shadows]

Well she kinda kamikazed herself, but she’s come back from the dead before (DNA thing). I wouldn’t write her off just yet,  but it’s basically do or die for her in Iowa and NH where she needs to win at least one of them

She is currently polling 3rd behind Pete & Sanders. Sanders is leading in the last 2 NH polls & Pete has some momentum too. In Iowa, Pete is leading with Bernie, Warren & Biden all behind. It is a fluid race & anything can happen. Any of the 4 contenders can win Iowa or NH.

But if current trend persists & Pete wins Iowa with Sanders 2nd & if Sanders wins NH with Pete 2nd, then Warren has to drop out after NH. She has to win 1 of the 2. She can't lose Iowa to Pete & NH to Sanders while being from Massachusetts. She anyways was going to lose Nevada & South Carolina which makes Iowa/NH all the more important.

Agree that Warren has to win IA and/or NH, but her chances are better than you portray them to be and she can win Nevada. Nevada is not the same as South Carolina. Also the 'if current trend persists' point is a big if. Trends with two months to go before the primaries start often don't persist.

I would say you are right if not for the latest Morning Consult poll which is a large sample size credible poll.

Warren has gone to 4th in the Early States behind Pete (Including Nevada & SC). She is now @ paltry 12% in Early States (Biden 25%, Bernie 20%). Even Steyer is @ 9% (meaning she is 3% above Steyer). She has also fallen nationally in the MC Poll to 15% but her fall in Early States has been much more sharp & rapid & those performances in Iowa & NH will cost her dear.

The reason I say that she can't win Nevada is because in virtually all polls among Hispanics either Biden or Bernie are leading with Warren far behind & you can't be that behind & win Nevada. Maybe she can win Nevada but it won't matter if she has fallen this far behind in Iowa & NH.

[Beet]

Warren fully supports M4All. No matter how badly some don't want to admit it... That being said it's not bad to be pragmatic when there are lots of priorities on the plate and the only one that affects all of them is corruption & lobbying.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is good that Bernie and Warren won't leave Dems a Senate seat that Dems have to defend, in case the Senate is close

[Hermit For Peace]

After time has passed and we have formulated our ideas about the candidates, now that the dust is settling a little bit, we see that Warren is just too out there. She is too academic for most people's taste. She is not offering the "pablum" that people are craving now after these awful dramatic years of the Trump reign.

People don't want upheaval. They want to rest. They want to get back to their lives.

Who is offering that? Biden.

Warren is helping to further the cause of a female becoming President one day, but I don't think she will be the one this time around.

[AN63093]

There is a somewhat moderate white rich boomer & above 45 bloc which is shifting from Beto to Harris to Warren to Pete in search of a fresh face. It is such a fickle demographic. This 7% odd bloc got Pete to 11-12% from 5%, it has got Beto to 11-12%, it got Kamala to 15% (That & some Black Biden voters), it got Warren to 15% (That & some Sanders voters who has since gone home). I am not sure that bloc is even a reliable voting bloc for any candidate.

The reason why this faction is so fickle is because it contains a lot of the SJW/identity politics type of voters, which- groan if you will, love or hate those terms, the fact of the matter is most of these people (whatever you want to call them) are in this faction.  These people vote Dem mainly because they culturally identify more with Dem politicians and they are liberal on social issues.  Beyond that, they don't have much of an ideology, or rather, it's malleable- they will end up parroting basically whatever the national D platform ends up being.

All of the Dem candidates are socially liberal and there aren't any D candidates that are from a more culturally conservative background.  In other words, there isn't a Richard Ojeda type still in play, so this faction is having trouble settling on a meaningful distinction between the candidates and are just floating around from candidate to candidate, looking for the fresh face.  Once they find it, they stay there for a few months until the candidate starts wearing thin, and then they move on to the next.  The closest thing to an Ojeda-type is Biden, who being of the demographics and background that these voters don't want to see as president, is also the one who hasn't been 'flavor of the month' yet and is unlikely to (although this faction would all vote for Biden eventually if he's the only one left standing).

This is not a unique phenomenon- we saw the exact same thing in the '12 GOP primary.. you had a faction of voters who mainly vote R because they are culturally conservative, but beyond that their ideology was loose and malleable- and mostly whatever the GOP talking points du jour were.  The main thing they cared about and had in common were a) they were culturally conservative and b) mostly evangelicals.  A lot of these voters were in the Tea Party back then (that is, not the original Tea Party at its genesis but what it eventually grew into).  Like their counterpart in the Dem primary now, these voters were moving back and forth between Bachmann, Santorum, Gingrich, Cain, Perry etc.  Just like the Dem primary doesn't have an Ojeda, in '12 it wasn't like there was a candidate loudly proclaiming to be pro-choice.. the closest thing was Romney, which.. surprise, surprise.. is exactly the candidate this faction didn't want but ultimately won the battle of attrition.

If this faction settles on someone who wins big enough in IA/NH to cause black voters to abandon Biden, then this person will win.  If not, Biden wins.  Really it's just as simple as that.  Obama did it in '08 off of IA, so we know it can be done.  I don't really see anyone in this Dem field with the same political talents as Obama (it's not even close), but I guess we'll see.

[lfromnj]

Kill Bernie Sanders.

One can not live while the other survives.

She doesn't want to go up against Buttigieg since he's already demonstrated he can beat her like a drum on policy.  Bernie is an easier target.

False lol. Killing Bernie would help Biden. Even though they are similar policy wise,Bernie supporters are closer to Biden than Warren.

[RaphaelDLG]

1) Wait for Buttigieg to collapse / try to make it happen without getting too dirty
2) Stop being so flip floppy on M4A, though the damage may be done on that front. I reject the idea that her support of it is really hurting her, its the electorate's own accurate perception of how weak her position on the issue is that hurts her.
3) Do well in the debates
4) Keep the faith in Iowa, anything can happen