NH-Emerson GE poll: Democrats ahead (user search)
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  NH-Emerson GE poll: Democrats ahead (search mode)
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Author Topic: NH-Emerson GE poll: Democrats ahead  (Read 2057 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: December 03, 2019, 05:42:49 PM »

NH is actually really high in % college graduates vs. other swing states.  There is rural ground left for Dems to lose there, but there is plenty of room for gains in the Boston outer suburbs/exurbs.  It's not the kind of place you would expect to keep zooming right with the new coalitions.  If I had to pick a swing state where Trump's 2016 performance was a one time thing, this would be it.
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Skill and Chance
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Posts: 12,522
« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2019, 07:49:53 PM »

NH is actually really high in % college graduates vs. other swing states.  There is rural ground left for Dems to lose there, but there is plenty of room for gains in the Boston outer suburbs/exurbs.  It's not the kind of place you would expect to keep zooming right with the new coalitions.  If I had to pick a swing state where Trump's 2016 performance was a one time thing, this would be it.

I agree with all of this. Even the rural trends are more ambiguous than in any other swing state, and the fact that they couldn’t win it in 2016 when they prioritized it over WI/PA/MI speaks for itself.

Well, the largest non-urbanized county in the state is dominated by an Ivy League college, so it really is an exceptional case. 
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