Post your prediction maps (if you can remember them), dating back to however long you've been predicting elections. The final map can be your current prediction for 2020. It's interesting to look back and see where we were right and where we were wrong.
I have attempted to predict elections since 2004 - I've been right 50% of the time and wrong 50% of the time about the winner, because I've always predicted Democratic wins.
I don't believe my prediction maps are on Atlas, so I'll post them in this thread, assembled from memory. Join in!
X 2004 - I wrongly predicted that Kerry would defeat Bush
That is what I thought would happen. It all depended upon Ohio, and neither Iowa nor New Mexico mattered (but Kerry did have to win Wisconsin).
I got Indiana right because I lived close to the Michigan-Indiana state line and lived close to the area that depended upon the RV industry that got hit for a general downturn of the economy, a credit crunch, and high fuel prices. I got Missouri and North Carolina interchanged; as it turned out, left-leaning (Democratic and Green) nominees got more of the vote in Missouri and right-leaning (Republican and Constitution) got more of the vote in North Carolina.
O 2012 - I correctly predicted that Obama would defeat RomneyThis was the most accurate of my predictions - I predicted Barack Obama would be re-elected, defeating Mitt Romney with 303 to 235 EV and a majority of the popular vote. I only missed Florida.
So did I -- and I thought that Obama was going to lose Florida until Romney put out those horrible Spanish-language ads suggesting that Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro endorsed Obama. Paradoxically I conculded that if Obama wasn't going to get 360 or so electoral votes he was going to get at most 310 or so in a close re-election. What Obama got was close to the mean result, but his result was the only one really close to the mean since 1900.
X 2016 - I wrongly predicted that Clinton would defeat TrumpI predicted a 323 to 215 EV victory for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump less than a week before the election. I also predicted a majority of the popular vote for Clinton. Of all of my predictions, this was the furthest from being accurate. Having North Carolina as going Democratic was a bit too bullish in retrospect. The other mistakes are perhaps more understandable. That was the most volatile election I have attempted to predict, and I expect 2020 will be more volatile - but I intend to be more accurate.
So did I. It would not have taken much of a shift. I had more faith in the American electorate in 2016 than in 2010 and 2014, but money was everything in American politics in 2010, 2014, and 2016. Tellingly, I thought that Senators Ron Jonson and Pat Toomey, firm believers in the corporatist orthodoxy that no human suffering can ever be in excess so long as it turns, indulges, or enforces maximal profit, would go down to defeat.
My stereo played the
Requiem Mass of Giuseppe Verdi that night. All that would have kept me from doing that was a Democratic win -- or conversion to Judaism, which has a different expression of grief.
2020 - I predict the Democratic nominee (not Biden) will defeat TrumpMy current prediction map for 2020 is a Democratic victory, 297 to 241 EV with just over a majority of the popular vote. I also predict that Biden will not end up being the nominee - which will likely be Warren, Sanders, or (a little less likely) Buttigieg. It's looking like it will be closer than I thought it would be a year ago - but I still think Democrats will pull off a win if they play their cards right. Yes, that is Iowa - I believe it's going to swing substantially towards Democrats, but it'll be within 2-3%.
This could end up being the map - or I could be far off the mark. We won't know until next November.
It is too early to tell. Trump is not getting close to winning any state that he lost by less than 8% (VA, CO, NV, MN, ME-AL, or NH); I can easily see him losing every one of those by double-digit margins. I see Michigan and Pennsylvania having spiraled out of reach -- at least high single-figures. At this point he gets away with winning one of either ME-02 or NE-02 and putting the election up to state delegations in Congress... but to do that he must sweep the board with Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
I see him losing a close election or losing to a Democrat who wins 375 or 413 electoral votes, with Texas deciding that range. I see as troubled a Presidency as those of Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980, if for very different reasons, and Trump can avoid so serious a loss if people who tend to vote Republican vote solely on identity and not more valid measures of judgment. But even that leaves Trump with 80 or so electoral votes.
Republican money-men will open the spigots to defend Senators at risk, and that could make things close. For them what will matter will be R control of the Senate.
