Post your prediction maps from past presidential elections up to 2020

[McGarnagle]

Post your prediction maps (if you can remember them), dating back to however long you've been predicting elections. The final map can be your current prediction for 2020. It's interesting to look back and see where we were right and where we were wrong.

I have attempted to predict elections since 2004 - I've been right 50% of the time and wrong 50% of the time about the winner, because I've always predicted Democratic wins.

I don't believe my prediction maps are on Atlas, so I'll post them in this thread, assembled from memory. Join in!

X 2004 - I wrongly predicted that Kerry would defeat Bush

I was just a teenager then, but I knew it was going to be a nailbiter. I thought Kerry would pull off close wins in New Mexico, Iowa and Ohio and win with a narrow plurality of the popular vote nationally, with 284 to 254 EV. I was wrong about that. I knew the sting of defeat before I knew the elation of victory. It was perhaps the most disappointing night of my teenage life.

O 2008 - I correctly predicted that Obama would defeat McCain

This was the first presidential election I predicted correctly overall - I missed Indiana, North Carolina and Missouri, predicting Barack Obama would defeat John McCain 350 to 188 EV and with a firm majority of the popular vote.

O 2012 - I correctly predicted that Obama would defeat Romney

This was the most accurate of my predictions - I predicted Barack Obama would be re-elected, defeating Mitt Romney with 303 to 235 EV and a majority of the popular vote. I only missed Florida.

X 2016 - I wrongly predicted that Clinton would defeat Trump

I predicted a 323 to 215 EV victory for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump less than a week before the election. I also predicted a majority of the popular vote for Clinton. Of all of my predictions, this was the furthest from being accurate. Having North Carolina as going Democratic was a bit too bullish in retrospect. The other mistakes are perhaps more understandable. That was the most volatile election I have attempted to predict, and I expect 2020 will be more volatile - but I intend to be more accurate.

2020 - I predict the Democratic nominee (not Biden) will defeat Trump

My current prediction map for 2020 is a Democratic victory, 297 to 241 EV with just over a majority of the popular vote. I also predict that Biden will not end up being the nominee - which will likely be Warren, Sanders, or (a little less likely) Buttigieg. It's looking like it will be closer than I thought it would be a year ago - but I still think Democrats will pull off a win if they play their cards right. Yes, that is Iowa - I believe it's going to swing substantially towards Democrats, but it'll be within 2-3%.

This could end up being the map - or I could be far off the mark. We won't know until next November.