Post your prediction maps from past presidential elections up to 2020
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  Post your prediction maps from past presidential elections up to 2020
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Author Topic: Post your prediction maps from past presidential elections up to 2020  (Read 2322 times)
McGarnagle
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« on: November 24, 2019, 08:43:17 AM »
« edited: November 24, 2019, 12:27:03 PM by McGarnagle »

Post your prediction maps (if you can remember them), dating back to however long you've been predicting elections. The final map can be your current prediction for 2020. It's interesting to look back and see where we were right and where we were wrong.

I have attempted to predict elections since 2004 - I've been right 50% of the time and wrong 50% of the time about the winner, because I've always predicted Democratic wins.

I don't believe my prediction maps are on Atlas, so I'll post them in this thread, assembled from memory. Join in!

X 2004 - I wrongly predicted that Kerry would defeat Bush



I was just a teenager then, but I knew it was going to be a nailbiter. I thought Kerry would pull off close wins in New Mexico, Iowa and Ohio and win with a narrow plurality of the popular vote nationally, with 284 to 254 EV. I was wrong about that. I knew the sting of defeat before I knew the elation of victory. It was perhaps the most disappointing night of my teenage life.

O 2008 - I correctly predicted that Obama would defeat McCain



This was the first presidential election I predicted correctly overall - I missed Indiana, North Carolina and Missouri, predicting Barack Obama would defeat John McCain 350 to 188 EV and with a firm majority of the popular vote.

O 2012 - I correctly predicted that Obama would defeat Romney



This was the most accurate of my predictions - I predicted Barack Obama would be re-elected, defeating Mitt Romney with 303 to 235 EV and a majority of the popular vote. I only missed Florida.

X 2016 - I wrongly predicted that Clinton would defeat Trump



I predicted a 323 to 215 EV victory for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump less than a week before the election. I also predicted a majority of the popular vote for Clinton. Of all of my predictions, this was the furthest from being accurate. Having North Carolina as going Democratic was a bit too bullish in retrospect. The other mistakes are perhaps more understandable. That was the most volatile election I have attempted to predict, and I expect 2020 will be more volatile - but I intend to be more accurate.

2020 - I predict the Democratic nominee (not Biden) will defeat Trump



My current prediction map for 2020 is a Democratic victory, 297 to 241 EV with just over a majority of the popular vote. I also predict that Biden will not end up being the nominee - which will likely be Warren, Sanders, or (a little less likely) Buttigieg. It's looking like it will be closer than I thought it would be a year ago - but I still think Democrats will pull off a win if they play their cards right. Yes, that is Iowa - I believe it's going to swing substantially towards Democrats, but it'll be within 2-3%.

This could end up being the map - or I could be far off the mark. We won't know until next November.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2019, 11:33:02 AM »

Post your prediction maps (if you can remember them), dating back to however long you've been predicting elections. The final map can be your current prediction for 2020. It's interesting to look back and see where we were right and where we were wrong.

I have attempted to predict elections since 2004 - I've been right 50% of the time and wrong 50% of the time about the winner, because I've always predicted Democratic wins.

I don't believe my prediction maps are on Atlas, so I'll post them in this thread, assembled from memory. Join in!

X 2004 - I wrongly predicted that Kerry would defeat Bush


That is what I thought would happen. It all depended upon Ohio, and neither Iowa nor New Mexico mattered (but Kerry did have to win Wisconsin).




I got Indiana right because I lived close to the Michigan-Indiana state line and lived close to the area that depended upon the RV industry that got hit for a general downturn of the economy, a credit crunch, and high fuel prices.  I got Missouri and North Carolina interchanged; as it turned out, left-leaning (Democratic and Green) nominees got more of the vote in Missouri and right-leaning (Republican and Constitution) got more of the vote in North Carolina.     

Quote
O 2012 - I correctly predicted that Obama would defeat Romney



This was the most accurate of my predictions - I predicted Barack Obama would be re-elected, defeating Mitt Romney with 303 to 235 EV and a majority of the popular vote. I only missed Florida.

So did I -- and I thought that Obama was going to lose Florida until Romney put out those horrible Spanish-language ads suggesting that Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro endorsed Obama. Paradoxically I conculded that if Obama wasn't going to get 360 or so electoral votes he was going to get at most 310 or so in a close re-election.  What Obama got was close to the mean result, but his result was the only one really close to the mean since 1900.

Quote
X 2016 - I wrongly predicted that Clinton would defeat Trump



I predicted a 323 to 215 EV victory for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump less than a week before the election. I also predicted a majority of the popular vote for Clinton. Of all of my predictions, this was the furthest from being accurate. Having North Carolina as going Democratic was a bit too bullish in retrospect. The other mistakes are perhaps more understandable. That was the most volatile election I have attempted to predict, and I expect 2020 will be more volatile - but I intend to be more accurate.

So did I. It would not have taken much of a shift. I had more faith in the American electorate in 2016 than in 2010 and 2014, but money was everything in American politics in 2010, 2014, and 2016. Tellingly, I thought that Senators Ron Jonson and Pat Toomey, firm believers in the corporatist orthodoxy that no human suffering can ever be in excess so long as it turns, indulges, or enforces maximal profit, would go down to defeat.

My stereo played the Requiem Mass of Giuseppe Verdi that night. All that would have kept me from doing that was a Democratic win -- or conversion to Judaism, which has a different expression of grief.

Quote
2020 - I predict the Democratic nominee (not Biden) will defeat Trump



My current prediction map for 2020 is a Democratic victory, 297 to 241 EV with just over a majority of the popular vote. I also predict that Biden will not end up being the nominee - which will likely be Warren, Sanders, or (a little less likely) Buttigieg. It's looking like it will be closer than I thought it would be a year ago - but I still think Democrats will pull off a win if they play their cards right. Yes, that is Iowa - I believe it's going to swing substantially towards Democrats, but it'll be within 2-3%.

This could end up being the map - or I could be far off the mark. We won't know until next November.

It is too early to tell. Trump is not getting close to winning any state that he lost by less than 8% (VA, CO, NV, MN, ME-AL, or NH); I can easily see him losing every one of those by double-digit margins. I see Michigan and Pennsylvania having spiraled out of reach -- at least high single-figures. At this point he gets away with winning one of either ME-02 or NE-02 and putting the election up to state delegations in Congress... but to do that he must sweep the board with Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

I see him losing a close election or losing to a Democrat who wins 375 or 413 electoral votes, with Texas deciding that range. I see as troubled a Presidency as those of Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980, if for very different reasons, and Trump can avoid so serious a loss if people who tend to vote Republican vote solely on identity and not more valid measures of judgment. But even that leaves Trump with 80 or so electoral votes.

Republican money-men will open the spigots to defend Senators at risk, and that could make things close. For them what will matter will be R control of the Senate.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2019, 11:50:08 AM »

2004:

I don't remember exactly what I predicted, since I wasn't yet following politics as closely, but it was something like this:



States I got wrong: Iowa, New Mexico

2008:



States I got wrong: Indiana, NE-02

2012:



States I got wrong: None

2016:



States I got wrong: Florida, ME-02, Michigan, NE-02, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (yikes)

Basically, I used to have more confidence in the American electorate, and while that confidence did start to fade in 2014, I still thought Trump was a bridge too far for most people in 2016. Now, I know that there's no such thing as a bridge too far, at least for the majority of the electorate.
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Politician
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« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2019, 11:52:25 AM »

2016: Don't remember perfectly but something like this.

Yes, I I thought McMullin would win Utah. lol
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2019, 12:11:34 PM »

1984: I predicted Mondale would win MA, RI, MD.
1992: I did not think Clinton would win NH.
2000: I was surprised Gore won the PV.
2008: I thought McCain would win NC-IN-NE-2.
2012: I thought Romney would win FL.
2016: I thought Clinton would win MI-PA-WI. Also, 2016 is the only time I was wrong about the outcome.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2019, 12:16:27 PM »

The 2016 one : (big miss in MI/PA)



The 2012 one : (a bit better)

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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
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« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2019, 02:47:35 AM »

2012: 100% right.



2016: A massive whiff



2020: Biden vs. Trump (279-259 Biden)



2020: Buttigieg vs. Trump (326-212 Trump)



Warren vs. Trump (290-248 Warren, enough to pick up the Senate)Sad



Sanders vs. Trump: (315-223 Bernie)

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BigVic
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« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2019, 03:28:40 AM »

2004 - W Bush winning by a sqeaker 281-257


2008 - Comfortable Obama win, 338-200, didn't think he will win IN or NC



2012 - Got all states correct. Obama 332-206


2016 - Hillary winning 278-260


2020 - Narrow Trump win, Dem win popular vote
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Orser67
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« Reply #8 on: November 26, 2019, 03:54:52 PM »

My prediction map in March 2016 was that it would be the same as 2012, except I gave Clinton NC.

My prediction map in September 2012 was what actually happened, except I gave Obama NC.

My prediction map in June 2008 was correct, except that I didn't call Democratic wins in IN and NE-2.

I don't remember exactly what I thought prior to the 2004 election, though I do remember thinking Kerry would probably win.
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krb08
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« Reply #9 on: December 18, 2019, 05:39:32 PM »

I was only paying attention beginning in 2016, and this is what I thought would happen:

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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #10 on: December 18, 2019, 06:04:54 PM »

As a Sanders primary voter in MI, I sure didn't think my candidate would win the MI primary.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2019, 02:29:52 PM »

I only ever remember predicting the 2012 and 2016 elections. For 2012, I actually did predict Obama would get Florida but I predicted Romney would've won Virginia. 319-219 Obama.

For 2016, I predicted the big three (WI, MI and PA) would go Clinton but I thought CO and NV would've went for Trump. 275-263 Trump.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2020, 08:39:54 PM »
« Edited: June 27, 2021, 07:11:01 PM by Antarctic-Statism »

2008



Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK)
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) / Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) ✓

I was a little too young for this one, but I remember being 100% confident Obama would win a month before the election with the way everyone was talking. This is the kind of map I would have made.

2012



President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) ✓
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI)

2016



2020

Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) ✓
Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) / Governor Mike Pence (R-IN)



President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) ✓
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2021, 01:19:14 PM »

2004: Bush, in a close race (wasn't explicitly predicting state by state, but if I had been this would probably have been my most accurate forecast to date)
2008: Obama, comfortably (Indiana & Missouri probably the biggest surprises of the night)
2012: Obama, by a tighter margin than he actually got (expected 300 or fewer electors)
2016: Clinton (my initial prediction of low-to-mid-300s tightened in the final days, but I still thought she'd make it)

I only took a close, state-by-state look in making my predictions this past year.

2020: Biden, 351-187 (was wrong about Florida, North Carolina & the Maine 2nd; all three were basically coin-flips for me, so it wasn't too shocking that they went for Trump instead, especially Florida)
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JoeInator
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« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2021, 02:02:17 PM »

2016: I predicted Clinton would win 319-219. I remember the EC count but I don't remember what the exact map was (I never saved it so it was lost to history)
2020: I predicted Biden would win 351-187, getting everything right except FL, NC, and ME-02
(I have a story about this one: everyone in my AP Gov class made a prediction map for this election and I had the 2nd-highest Biden victory in the class, behind one kid who predicted the 413 map minus IA)

Both times I overestimated the Democrats' total in the EC.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #15 on: January 18, 2021, 04:06:33 PM »

2012: Didn’t have a map, but 11-year-old me’s expectation was an Obama victory by a smaller margin than in 2008, which was what happened.

2016: I was expecting 2012 with Ohio and Iowa flipped. I was...not correct. It was a horrible night.

2020: I believed the polls and was expecting 413 (which was exactly what the polls showed). I considered changing my prediction to flip Florida and Texas to R at the last minute, but didn’t.
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Canis
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« Reply #16 on: January 18, 2021, 11:37:33 PM »

2012: didn't have a prediction I was confident in Obama winning until election week I got really nervous that he was gonna lose I still thought he would edge it but I thought it was gonna be a nailbiter
2016: I thought it would be closer then people expected but still thought it would be a narrow Clinton victory This was my map
I missed WI MI PA as did pretty much everyone lol
2020: During the primaries I was predicting Biden would flip MI WI PA and maybe edge AZ but I was pretty sure the closest states during the election would be AZ and WI. As the election continued and bidens polling lead became more consistent I thought he was gonna win WI MI PA by a few points each and narrowly edge AZ NC and FL. I really did not see GA coming. This was my map the day of the election.

in hindsight I really should have payed attention to the signs of a Trump victory in FL and should have believed the hype about GA I thought GA was going to be very close but didn't think the dems could edged it
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Chips
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« Reply #17 on: May 16, 2021, 08:25:24 PM »

2000: Bush narrowly beats Gore:



2004: Bush beats Kerry:



2008: Obama beats McCain:



2012: Obama wins, Romney wins the popular vote:



2016: I correctly predicted Trump's win:



2020: I went on a dime and went with Trump: (Only one out of the six I got incorrect)

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dw93
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« Reply #18 on: May 17, 2021, 10:30:01 PM »

2004: I don't have a map for this one as I was 11 at the time. I felt the election was always going to be close and while I hoped Kerry would win, I always had a gut feeling Bush was gonna pull through in the end, and was very down in the dumps the next day at school.

2008:I was way off on this one. I actually though McCain was gonna win until three things happened (in no particular order), 1) The collapse of Lehman Brothers 2) Palin's interview with Katie Couric 3) The Debates. Even then, I didn't think Obama would win by as much as he did. Didn't pay close enough attention to have an actual electoral prediction at the time.

2012: If you were to ask me in November of 2011 if Obama was going to win, I would've said no. However, that changed by the Spring of 2012, by the end of Summer it was clear Obama was the favorite, but I never counted Romney out. This was my map at the time (give or take VA or CO):



2016: Prior to it becoming Clinton vs. Trump I actually thought a Republican was favored (though by no means guaranteed) to win. When it became a race of Clinton vs. Trump, I though Clinton was going to win and win with Obama's 2008 map minus IN. However, as the campaign played out and especially after Trump got a convention bounce, something Mitt Romney didn't get in 2012, I felt the race was gonna be a close one and was convinced Trump had a legit shot. That said I still felt Clinton was gonna pull through in the end. This would've been my electoral Prediction toward the end of the campaign (Give or take FL, and on a good night for Clinton NC):



2020: I made so many predictions both on and off this forum it isn't even funny, feel free to search for them, lol. Anyways, I never thought the 413 map was ever going to happen, barring a strong primary challenge to Trump that damages him good for the general and/or a strong rightwing or center right third party candidate and I always felt MI was going to flip back to the Democrats, even in scenarios where Trump won. That said, I felt, even if I didn't always want to admit it, that Trump was favored to win in the months prior to COVID and even felt this way in the first month or two of the pandemic. It wasn't until the middle or end of June that I felt it was Biden's to lose, though I felt the race was gonna be closer than the polls suggested.
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