Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion (user search)
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  Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion (search mode)
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Author Topic: Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion  (Read 65343 times)
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
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« on: November 20, 2019, 10:48:21 PM »



Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

It would be positively idiotic for the GA legislature not to draw a 4th Safe Dem seat in Atlanta, even worse than the 2011 VA House of Delegates map going for 2/3rds in NOVA.  They could end up down to 6 or even 5 seats in a Republican midterm during the second half of the decade.  They may have to MD-02/03 the North GA mountains just to keep Dems from holding a 5th Atlanta seat.

It would be positively idiotic for them not to. The math is super simple there imo.

GA-9: 78-19 Trump
GA-14: 75-22 Trump
GA-11: 60-35 Trump
GA-10: 61-36 Trump
GA-3: 64-33

GA-6 and GA-7 are literally surrounded by super red Trump districts. Even just GA-9 and GA-14 would be enough to turn them red. There's 0 reason from a gerrymandering perspective for the legislature to hold back.

Yes but the counter to that is look at what happened in Texas last year. The Austin pizza slice seats that were all like >60% McCain/Romney almost all fell in one single election because of the rapid blue bubble expanding out of the urban core. The same thing is happening in Atlanta.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2019, 07:42:50 AM »



Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

It would be positively idiotic for the GA legislature not to draw a 4th Safe Dem seat in Atlanta, even worse than the 2011 VA House of Delegates map going for 2/3rds in NOVA.  They could end up down to 6 or even 5 seats in a Republican midterm during the second half of the decade.  They may have to MD-02/03 the North GA mountains just to keep Dems from holding a 5th Atlanta seat.

It would be positively idiotic for them not to. The math is super simple there imo.

GA-9: 78-19 Trump
GA-14: 75-22 Trump
GA-11: 60-35 Trump
GA-10: 61-36 Trump
GA-3: 64-33

GA-6 and GA-7 are literally surrounded by super red Trump districts. Even just GA-9 and GA-14 would be enough to turn them red. There's 0 reason from a gerrymandering perspective for the legislature to hold back.

Yes but the counter to that is look at what happened in Texas last year. The Austin pizza slice seats that were all like >60% McCain/Romney almost all fell in one single election because of the rapid blue bubble expanding out of the urban core. The same thing is happening in Atlanta.

Yeah, but they all held in the end (though they could break next year). Most importantly however, Apples to Oranges. Austin is a 70% D uber liberal city, not a bunch of 50-50 bedroom communities.

Gwinnett and Cobb counties aren’t yet maxed out for Democrats.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2020, 08:49:03 AM »

Losing the 2018 gubernatorial race here hurts. Republicans are going to draw out McBath and Bourdeaux by spiraling them out to north Georgia and will give Bishop a Trump/Kemp seat. Watch.

On the bright side, they are on borrowed time, so they can enjoy their last turn at the maps while they can.
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