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October 01, 2020, 01:36:23 pm
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  Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion
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Author Topic: Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion  (Read 8111 times)
АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #225 on: June 14, 2020, 08:08:09 am »

I think this is pretty fair Georgia map:



Atlanta Metro area:



District 1
Population: 60% white, 30% black
Governor 2018: 68% - 32% Kemp
President 2016: 66% - 32% Trump
PVI: R+17.5
Rating: Safe R
Representative: Austin Scott (R) (red. GA-08)


District 2
Population: 53% white, 40% black
Governor 2018: 56% - 44 Abrams
President 2016: 55% - 43% Clinton
PVI: D+6
Rating: Likely D
Representative: Sanford Bishop (D)


District 3
Population: 70% white, 22% black
Governor 2018: 69% - 30% Kemp
President 2016: 68% - 28% Trump
PVI: R+22
Rating: Safe R
Representative: Drew Ferguson (R)

District 4
Population: white 80%, hispanic 12%, black 7%
Governor 2018: 79% - 21% Kemp
President 2016: 77% - 20% Trump
PVI: R+29
Rating: Safe R
Representative: Margorie Greene (R)

District 5
Population: white 73%, hispanic 15%, black 7%
Governor 2018: 72% - 26% Kemp
President 2016: 73% - 23% Trump
PVI: R+30
Rating: Safe R
Representative: Barry Loudermilk (R) (red. GA-11)


District 6
Population: white 65%, hispanic 15%, asian 14%
Governor 2018: 54% - 44% Kemp
President 2016: 56% - 40% Trump
PVI: R+15
Rating: Lean R
Representative: someone R legislator, D in major wave

District 7
Population: black 55%, white 33%, hispanic 11%
Governor 2018: 68% - 31% Abrams
President 2016: 63% - 34% Clinton
PVI: D+12
Rating: Safe D
Representative: David Scott (D) (red. GA-13)

District 8
Population: black 59%, white 33%
Governor 2018: 68% - 31% Abrams
President 2016: 64% - 34% Clinton
PVI: D+13
Rating: Safe D
Representative: Hank Johnson (D) (red. GA-04)

District 9
Population: black 61%, white 25%
Governor 2018: 80% - 20% Abrams
President 2016: 76% - 21% Clinton
PVI: D+25
Rating: Safe D
Representative: John Lewis (D) (red. GA-05)

District 10
Population: white 54%, black 24%, hispanic 12%
Governor 2018: 71% - 28% Abrams
President 2016: 67% - 28% Clinton
PVI: D+13
Rating: Safe D
Representative: Lucy McBath (D) (red. GA-06)

District 11
Population: black 40%, 28% white, 22% hispanic
Governor 2018: 68% - 31% Abrams
President 2016: 63% - 34% Clinton
PVI: D+11
Rating: Safe D
Representative: Carolyn Bordeaux (D) (red. GA-07)


District 12
Population: white 76%, black 15%
Governor 2018: 75% - 25% Kemp
President 2016: 73% - 24% Trump
PVI: R+27
Rating: Safe R
Representative: Jody Hice (R) def. Matt Gurtler/Andrew Clyde (R). (red. GA-09, GA-10)

District 13
Population: white 67%, black 25%
Governor 2018: 68% - 32% Kemp
President 2016: 66% - 31% Trump
PVI: R+18
Rating: Safe R
Representative: Rick Allen (R) def. Buddy Carter (R) (red. GA-12, GA-01)


District 14
Population: black 47%, white 44%
Governor 2018: 63% - 36% Abrams
President 2016: 61% - 37% Clinton
PVI: D+11
Rating: Safe D
Representative: some D legislator or, maybe, John Barrow


So, 7-7 delegation. And one swing district (GA-06) in the future
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #226 on: June 14, 2020, 08:49:03 am »

Losing the 2018 gubernatorial race here hurts. Republicans are going to draw out McBath and Bourdeaux by spiraling them out to north Georgia and will give Bishop a Trump/Kemp seat. Watch.

On the bright side, they are on borrowed time, so they can enjoy their last turn at the maps while they can.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #227 on: June 14, 2020, 01:18:53 pm »

Here's an attempt at a Republican map following the methodology of the Texas Republican Party c. 2004 - i.e. to ensure that no white Democrat can be elected.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7059ff9a-a84b-4391-bad8-4f50422e6c65




It concedes four districts in Atlanta, but makes sure they're all comfortably black-majority by CVAP (GA-6 is only black-plurality by CVAP, but the black population is more than twice as large as any other racial group so it's still secure.)

GA-2 is also drawn as a black-majority district, since if you eliminate a black district downstate you get no credit for creating an extra one in Atlanta, and because if you reckon the Supreme Court is going to back you up you can always eliminate that in a mid-decade redistricting. All other districts retain approximately their present orientations and Clinton didn't break 41% in any of them.
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Sol
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« Reply #228 on: June 14, 2020, 03:50:41 pm »

I made a fair Georgia map a while ago. Though it was drawn on pretty fair principles, it did favor Democrats so I thought it would be good to make a version of the same map which more closely paralleled the state's partisan lean:



Here's the the link.

Here's the original version:



link
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#proudtikitorchmarcher
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« Reply #229 on: August 13, 2020, 02:32:43 pm »


Anyway secure 10-4 done by moving the 2nd upto Clayton county although the 2nd is still pretty compact to avoid any claims of a racial gerrymander atleast for that district.

Closest Kemp in north Georgia is Kemp +24.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #230 on: August 13, 2020, 03:30:16 pm »


Anyway secure 10-4 done by moving the 2nd upto Clayton county although the 2nd is still pretty compact to avoid any claims of a racial gerrymander atleast for that district.

Closest Kemp in north Georgia is Kemp +24.
DRA?
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« Reply #231 on: August 13, 2020, 03:31:22 pm »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f5c722db-f6e1-4291-852f-49c5f16846ad

The most suburban district(Brown) is still Kemp +29.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #232 on: September 13, 2020, 06:51:31 pm »

Not sure why so many dems think Kemp and republicans won't go all out in Georgia. This an 11-3 map based on 2018 Governor results. Districts 1-4 actually fit great with 2018 population numbers and probably won't trend much compared to the Atlanta area: https://davesredistricting.org/join/efdd6266-17d2-42c3-a4b8-21a217dc07aa

GA-1: Kemp+12
GA-2: Kemp+12
GA-3: Kemp +14
GA-4: Kemp+14
GA-5: Abrams+64
GA-6: Kemp+22
GA-7: Kemp+21
GA-8: Abrams+66
GA-9: Kemp+23
GA-10: Kemp+34
GA-11: Kemp+26
GA-12: Kemp+20
GA-13: Kemp+22
GA-14: Abrams+72

You can easily get rid of McBath with this map and it's unlikely that this will fail in 10 years.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #233 on: September 13, 2020, 07:07:26 pm »

Not sure why so many dems think Kemp and republicans won't go all out in Georgia. This an 11-3 map based on 2018 Governor results. Districts 1-4 actually fit great with 2018 population numbers and probably won't trend much compared to the Atlanta area: https://davesredistricting.org/join/efdd6266-17d2-42c3-a4b8-21a217dc07aa

GA-1: Kemp+12
GA-2: Kemp+12
GA-3: Kemp +14
GA-4: Kemp+14
GA-5: Abrams+64
GA-6: Kemp+22
GA-7: Kemp+21
GA-8: Abrams+66
GA-9: Kemp+23
GA-10: Kemp+34
GA-11: Kemp+26
GA-12: Kemp+20
GA-13: Kemp+22
GA-14: Abrams+72

You can easily get rid of McBath with this map and it's unlikely that this will fail in 10 years.

Again, how is the 52% black GA-02 not protected under the VRA?
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Blairite
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« Reply #234 on: September 13, 2020, 08:22:01 pm »

One problem for the GOP gerrymanders: as of 2018, it's really easy to draw five compact, majority black districts in Georgia. Democrats could absolutely sue for this on VRA grounds:

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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #235 on: September 13, 2020, 08:45:37 pm »

Not sure why so many dems think Kemp and republicans won't go all out in Georgia. This an 11-3 map based on 2018 Governor results. Districts 1-4 actually fit great with 2018 population numbers and probably won't trend much compared to the Atlanta area: https://davesredistricting.org/join/efdd6266-17d2-42c3-a4b8-21a217dc07aa

GA-1: Kemp+12
GA-2: Kemp+12
GA-3: Kemp +14
GA-4: Kemp+14
GA-5: Abrams+64
GA-6: Kemp+22
GA-7: Kemp+21
GA-8: Abrams+66
GA-9: Kemp+23
GA-10: Kemp+34
GA-11: Kemp+26
GA-12: Kemp+20
GA-13: Kemp+22
GA-14: Abrams+72

You can easily get rid of McBath with this map and it's unlikely that this will fail in 10 years.

Again, how is the 52% black GA-02 not protected under the VRA?
According to DRA it's only 49.4% black and I'm not aware of that being true.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #236 on: September 14, 2020, 06:56:49 am »
« Edited: September 14, 2020, 07:12:47 am by Mr.Phips »

Not sure why so many dems think Kemp and republicans won't go all out in Georgia. This an 11-3 map based on 2018 Governor results. Districts 1-4 actually fit great with 2018 population numbers and probably won't trend much compared to the Atlanta area: https://davesredistricting.org/join/efdd6266-17d2-42c3-a4b8-21a217dc07aa

GA-1: Kemp+12
GA-2: Kemp+12
GA-3: Kemp +14
GA-4: Kemp+14
GA-5: Abrams+64
GA-6: Kemp+22
GA-7: Kemp+21
GA-8: Abrams+66
GA-9: Kemp+23
GA-10: Kemp+34
GA-11: Kemp+26
GA-12: Kemp+20
GA-13: Kemp+22
GA-14: Abrams+72

You can easily get rid of McBath with this map and it's unlikely that this will fail in 10 years.

Again, how is the 52% black GA-02 not protected under the VRA?
According to DRA it's only 49.4% black and I'm not aware of that being true.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia's_2nd_congressional_district

Even if it is 49.4%, i would think it is still protected.  If not, the. IL-07 (only 46% black) also isnít protected and Dems would be able to unpack it to help shore up Lauren Underwood.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #237 on: September 14, 2020, 07:10:10 am »

It doesn't matter whether the district itself is 50% black. It matters whether the Gingles test is met.

You can easily draw a geographically compact district in SW Georgia in which African-Americans constitute more than 50% of the voting age population; African-Americans in the south without question vote in a politically cohesive manner; the same is equally true of white votes in SW Georgia.

All three legs of the Gingles test are therefore satisfied, unless you can somehow argue that a district based on Columbus and Macon isn't 'geographically compact'. And whilst I could see some courts accepting this argument, that isn't due to the merits of such a claim.
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Pack the Court & Lock Him Up
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« Reply #238 on: September 14, 2020, 09:13:04 am »

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Pack the Court & Lock Him Up
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« Reply #239 on: September 14, 2020, 09:15:20 am »

At any rate, yeah, with the 2018 Census figures, it's going to be tough for the GOP to not draw 5 VRA-protected districts. That still leaves a huge chunk of the metro that's majority-white and majority-minority that's strongly D as well. From there, they have to decide whether they want to hack and splice into oblivion (potentially risking more lawsuits and/or a late-decade dummymander), or give a 6th seat to Democrats in the northern metro and be safely guaranteed their 8 for the rest of the decade.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #240 on: September 14, 2020, 10:38:06 am »

Could you solve that problem just by packing the Atlanta VRA districts? There's no VRA issue in doing this with Gwinnett Latinos and with the current Supreme Court they'd have a decent chance at getting away with moving the VRA districts from the 50s% black to the mid 60s% and getting away with it.
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Blairite
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« Reply #241 on: September 14, 2020, 06:43:10 pm »

Could you solve that problem just by packing the Atlanta VRA districts? There's no VRA issue in doing this with Gwinnett Latinos and with the current Supreme Court they'd have a decent chance at getting away with moving the VRA districts from the 50s% black to the mid 60s% and getting away with it.

I don't think so. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Gingles test stipulates that if a protected minority group constitutes a majority of the electorate in a hypothetical compactly-drawn district. African Americans are the only group to which this status applies in Georgia (Gwinnett Latinos couldn't be the majority in any district so can crack them either way). Given it is now possible to draw five compact, majority African American districts in Georgia (Macon-Columbus, South Atlanta Burbs, South Fulton/Douglass/Cobb, Core Atlanta, and East DeKalb/South Gwinnett), it can easily be argued that collapsing the latter four districts into three is an illegal racial gerrymander because it dilutes the natural voting power of Atlanta-area African Americans.

That, however, is the best Dems are getting in GA. The GOP shouldn't run into legal trouble stripping North Fulton/North Cobb/North Gwinnett deep into Appalachia.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #242 on: September 15, 2020, 03:57:41 am »

Could you solve that problem just by packing the Atlanta VRA districts? There's no VRA issue in doing this with Gwinnett Latinos and with the current Supreme Court they'd have a decent chance at getting away with moving the VRA districts from the 50s% black to the mid 60s% and getting away with it.

I don't think so. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Gingles test stipulates that if a protected minority group constitutes a majority of the electorate in a hypothetical compactly-drawn district. African Americans are the only group to which this status applies in Georgia (Gwinnett Latinos couldn't be the majority in any district so can crack them either way). Given it is now possible to draw five compact, majority African American districts in Georgia (Macon-Columbus, South Atlanta Burbs, South Fulton/Douglass/Cobb, Core Atlanta, and East DeKalb/South Gwinnett), it can easily be argued that collapsing the latter four districts into three is an illegal racial gerrymander because it dilutes the natural voting power of Atlanta-area African Americans.

That, however, is the best Dems are getting in GA. The GOP shouldn't run into legal trouble stripping North Fulton/North Cobb/North Gwinnett deep into Appalachia.

Yeah, I didn't mean denying a fourth AA district in metro Atlanta - the only way you're avoiding that is if the Supreme Court is willing to radically reinterpret or strike down the VRA. I meant using those four districts to ensure that you can't draw a fifth Democratic district in the city.
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« Reply #243 on: September 15, 2020, 11:54:01 am »

People forget literally half the current active justices on the 11th court are Trump appointees.
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Blairite
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« Reply #244 on: September 15, 2020, 12:22:24 pm »

Could you solve that problem just by packing the Atlanta VRA districts? There's no VRA issue in doing this with Gwinnett Latinos and with the current Supreme Court they'd have a decent chance at getting away with moving the VRA districts from the 50s% black to the mid 60s% and getting away with it.

I don't think so. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Gingles test stipulates that if a protected minority group constitutes a majority of the electorate in a hypothetical compactly-drawn district. African Americans are the only group to which this status applies in Georgia (Gwinnett Latinos couldn't be the majority in any district so can crack them either way). Given it is now possible to draw five compact, majority African American districts in Georgia (Macon-Columbus, South Atlanta Burbs, South Fulton/Douglass/Cobb, Core Atlanta, and East DeKalb/South Gwinnett), it can easily be argued that collapsing the latter four districts into three is an illegal racial gerrymander because it dilutes the natural voting power of Atlanta-area African Americans.

That, however, is the best Dems are getting in GA. The GOP shouldn't run into legal trouble stripping North Fulton/North Cobb/North Gwinnett deep into Appalachia.

Yeah, I didn't mean denying a fourth AA district in metro Atlanta - the only way you're avoiding that is if the Supreme Court is willing to radically reinterpret or strike down the VRA. I meant using those four districts to ensure that you can't draw a fifth Democratic district in the city.

I don't think that's relevant so long as AA voting power isn't diluted. SCOTUS reaffirmed partisan redistricting as constitutional and GA doesn't have any state level rules of the sort. I really don't see why the GAGOP wouldn't try and crack that natural Sandy Springs/Alpharetta/Dunwoody/Duluth/East Cobb seat. It's gonna be 5-8.
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Sol
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« Reply #245 on: September 15, 2020, 01:43:39 pm »

Could you solve that problem just by packing the Atlanta VRA districts? There's no VRA issue in doing this with Gwinnett Latinos and with the current Supreme Court they'd have a decent chance at getting away with moving the VRA districts from the 50s% black to the mid 60s% and getting away with it.

I don't think so. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Gingles test stipulates that if a protected minority group constitutes a majority of the electorate in a hypothetical compactly-drawn district. African Americans are the only group to which this status applies in Georgia (Gwinnett Latinos couldn't be the majority in any district so can crack them either way). Given it is now possible to draw five compact, majority African American districts in Georgia (Macon-Columbus, South Atlanta Burbs, South Fulton/Douglass/Cobb, Core Atlanta, and East DeKalb/South Gwinnett), it can easily be argued that collapsing the latter four districts into three is an illegal racial gerrymander because it dilutes the natural voting power of Atlanta-area African Americans.

That, however, is the best Dems are getting in GA. The GOP shouldn't run into legal trouble stripping North Fulton/North Cobb/North Gwinnett deep into Appalachia.

Yeah, I didn't mean denying a fourth AA district in metro Atlanta - the only way you're avoiding that is if the Supreme Court is willing to radically reinterpret or strike down the VRA. I meant using those four districts to ensure that you can't draw a fifth Democratic district in the city.

I don't think that's relevant so long as AA voting power isn't diluted. SCOTUS reaffirmed partisan redistricting as constitutional and GA doesn't have any state level rules of the sort. I really don't see why the GAGOP wouldn't try and crack that natural Sandy Springs/Alpharetta/Dunwoody/Duluth/East Cobb seat. It's gonna be 5-8.

Ehh, probably 4-9 at least until Democrats are able to assert control over either the 11th circuit or SCOTUS.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #246 on: September 16, 2020, 05:43:57 am »

Is it really a safe bet that 4 black districts will be required in the Atlanta area? In my opinion it is fairly easy to justify that only 3 are needed. The COIs write themselves if you only do 3:

1 DeKalb county district
1 southern Fulton county district
1 "southern suburbs" district.

All of these are "natural" COIs, create very nice districts and lead to 3 VRA districts that are 55%, 58% and 57% black respectively.

If doing a fair map, there is also a 4th "natural" majority minority COI that would be basically most of Gwinett county, but that one would not be a VRA protected district (38% white, 31% black, 23% Hispanic, 12% Asian) and would get cracked in an R gerrymander anyways.



Meanwhile, if you go for 4 VRA districts, you need to deliberately gerrymander to get the desired result. I am open to see better maps, but my try had districts that, while somewhat clean, still broke more counties and COIs:

1 most of DeKalb + a bit of southern Gwinnett
1 southeastern suburbs and rurals
1 southern Fulton + a part of Clayton + southwestern rurals
1 Atlanta + southern Cobb

The former arrangement is certainly a much nicer one.
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Sol
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« Reply #247 on: September 16, 2020, 10:59:58 am »

Is it really a safe bet that 4 black districts will be required in the Atlanta area? In my opinion it is fairly easy to justify that only 3 are needed. The COIs write themselves if you only do 3:

1 DeKalb county district
1 southern Fulton county district
1 "southern suburbs" district.

All of these are "natural" COIs, create very nice districts and lead to 3 VRA districts that are 55%, 58% and 57% black respectively.

If doing a fair map, there is also a 4th "natural" majority minority COI that would be basically most of Gwinett county, but that one would not be a VRA protected district (38% white, 31% black, 23% Hispanic, 12% Asian) and would get cracked in an R gerrymander anyways.



Meanwhile, if you go for 4 VRA districts, you need to deliberately gerrymander to get the desired result. I am open to see better maps, but my try had districts that, while somewhat clean, still broke more counties and COIs:

1 most of DeKalb + a bit of southern Gwinnett
1 southeastern suburbs and rurals
1 southern Fulton + a part of Clayton + southwestern rurals
1 Atlanta + southern Cobb

The former arrangement is certainly a much nicer one.

You could do something like this:

Though it does mess with counties, it captures CoIs pretty neatly--western suburbs, southern suburbs, Atlanta, and eastern suburbs. Everything is majority Black.
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