Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion
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Thunder98
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« Reply #525 on: September 06, 2021, 10:18:26 PM »

How likely is it that a certain individual who shall not be named actually gets part of Cobb?

Definately. GA-14 has a lot of R votes to shed, and can take in northern Cobb without putting it in immediate danger. Infact, I'd argue if the GOP doesn't, they're probably making a dummymander.

My 14th district goes all the into Fulton County. This hypotheicical disitrct went from Trump +32.2% in 2016 to Kemp 27.5% in 2018 to Trump 22.1% in 2020. A swing of 10.1% in just 4 years!
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Stuart98
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« Reply #526 on: September 06, 2021, 10:27:31 PM »

QGIS.

If in doubt, it's QGIS.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #527 on: September 06, 2021, 10:55:17 PM »

How likely is it that a certain individual who shall not be named actually gets part of Cobb?

Definately. GA-14 has a lot of R votes to shed, and can take in northern Cobb without putting it in immediate danger. Infact, I'd argue if the GOP doesn't, they're probably making a dummymander.

My 14th district goes all the into Fulton County. This hypotheicical disitrct went from Trump +32.2% in 2016 to Kemp 27.5% in 2018 to Trump 22.1% in 2020. A swing of 10.1% in just 4 years!

Wow. With how quickly and drastically the whole Atlanta area is changing, imagine if her district actually becomes winnable for a Democrat by the end of the decade.
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« Reply #528 on: September 07, 2021, 04:26:40 AM »
« Edited: September 07, 2021, 04:41:22 AM by Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fae67e28-600f-4d82-a85f-cfa2ee59c915

10D-4R GA. All 10 seats voted for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden.
There is little arm taking in Adam Griffin's home county.
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David Hume
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« Reply #529 on: September 07, 2021, 04:36:22 AM »

Let me offer an explanation for the significance of the above, for anyone unaware

The Supreme Court's unanimous opinion in Gingles v. Thornburg established an important precedent governing the influence of the Voting Rights Act on redistricting.

The "Gingles Test" establishes when a minority district is required. It has three parts:

1. The minority group must be "sufficiently large and geographically compact to constitute a majority in a single-member district"
2. The minority group must vote as a bloc
3. The majority votes sufficiently as a bloc to defeat the minority's preferred candidate

When these three elements are present, then a district must exist that reliably elects the minority's candidate of choice. The court's judgement says that discriminatory intent and causation are both completely irrelevant here, only the test itself matters. If polarized voting exists and a Gingles district can exist for a minority community, then there must be a district that can reliably elect that community's preferred candidate.

Because it's obvious that racially polarized voting occurs in the Deep South, we only need to focus on the first part of the Gingles Test, the compactness test:

Is the specific minority community populous enough and geographically compact enough that its members can constitute a majority of a district's voting age population?

This is called the "compactness test" for a reason. The sprawling 11th District here was ruled unconstitutional because it was not at all compact and the African American population of the district was not part of any coherent community. People living in urban Dekalb County don't have the same interests and priorities as people in the rural black belt or downtown Savannah, even if they're both in the same racial minority. In most circumstances though the Courts have not been very strict about the definitions of "compactness" or "community".

If the General Assembly gets rid of Sanford Bishop's seat, the state's most likely case in the ensuing lawsuit will probably be to push for a new and stricter definition of minority community here. It will probably not be successful because existing precedent covers a much broader definition but it would be the only real argument they could make.

All things considered "African Americans in southwest Georgia" can be reasonably considered a discrete minority community. As you can see, I've drawn a compact district in the area of the current 2nd District with a 50.5% black voting age population. This means a district must exist that can be expected to elect their candidate of choice (who is currently Sanford Bishop). Keep in mind the district itself does not need to be >50% black! It can certainly be less, as long as it will probably still elect the black community's candidate of choice.

Even though it's not strictly necessary, traditionally when drawing VRA districts the mapmakers have typically drawn the districts themselves to be >50% minority, either because they had no pressing reason to do otherwise, or because they deemed it necessary to ensure the election of the minority's candidate of choice
Great introduction.

However, as you mentioned, how compact and what is a community is up to interpretation. 11th circuit is quite conservative and partisan, which may rule in R favor. And I am suspicious if SC will grant cert in this case.
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« Reply #530 on: September 07, 2021, 06:47:32 AM »


Rs don't hesitate to draw this sort of map.

Meanwhile, Ds get cold feet at the very thought of drawing Trump Tower into Elise Stefanik's district (despite the natural community of interest given the love fest of Stefanik and her rural constituents for Trump).

This is how minority rule perpetuates itself. Because Ds want to be ruled over by a minority of Rs.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #531 on: September 07, 2021, 12:27:21 PM »

How likely is it that a certain individual who shall not be named actually gets part of Cobb?

Very likely.  GA-14 can get unpacked and pickup Dem-voting parts of Cobb to further shore up the GA-07 and GA-06 redraws. 

Is this based on anything other than seeing that such a map could be drawn? Both MTG and her constituents have said loudly they don’t want their district broken up for redistricting - she’s not looking to “take one for the team” and her constituents don’t want to be paired with inner suburbs. Not saying it won’t happen, but I think this is a factor to consider.
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Torie
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« Reply #532 on: September 07, 2021, 12:30:37 PM »

How likely is it that a certain individual who shall not be named actually gets part of Cobb?

Very likely.  GA-14 can get unpacked and pickup Dem-voting parts of Cobb to further shore up the GA-07 and GA-06 redraws. 

Is this based on anything other than seeing that such a map could be drawn? Both MTG and her constituents have said loudly they don’t want their district broken up for redistricting - she’s not looking to “take one for the team” and her constituents don’t want to be paired with inner suburbs. Not saying it won’t happen, but I think this is a factor to consider.

Constituents? And how much influence do you think MTG has vis a vis the Pub power structure with the pencil?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #533 on: September 07, 2021, 12:32:05 PM »
« Edited: September 07, 2021, 12:42:36 PM by lfromnj »

How likely is it that a certain individual who shall not be named actually gets part of Cobb?

Very likely.  GA-14 can get unpacked and pickup Dem-voting parts of Cobb to further shore up the GA-07 and GA-06 redraws.  

Is this based on anything other than seeing that such a map could be drawn? Both MTG and her constituents have said loudly they don’t want their district broken up for redistricting - she’s not looking to “take one for the team” and her constituents don’t want to be paired with inner suburbs. Not saying it won’t happen, but I think this is a factor to consider.

Yeah despite what impartial spectator may say the GA GOP has never drawn anything particularly crazy for congressional districts. A lot of maps people here try to draw as fair are still pretty similar to the current map only adjusting moderately in the Atlanta metro.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #534 on: September 07, 2021, 12:36:55 PM »

How likely is it that a certain individual who shall not be named actually gets part of Cobb?

Very likely.  GA-14 can get unpacked and pickup Dem-voting parts of Cobb to further shore up the GA-07 and GA-06 redraws. 

Is this based on anything other than seeing that such a map could be drawn? Both MTG and her constituents have said loudly they don’t want their district broken up for redistricting - she’s not looking to “take one for the team” and her constituents don’t want to be paired with inner suburbs. Not saying it won’t happen, but I think this is a factor to consider.

Does the average constituent of that district actually pay much attention to redistricting?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #535 on: September 07, 2021, 03:03:02 PM »

How likely is it that a certain individual who shall not be named actually gets part of Cobb?

Very likely.  GA-14 can get unpacked and pickup Dem-voting parts of Cobb to further shore up the GA-07 and GA-06 redraws. 

Is this based on anything other than seeing that such a map could be drawn? Both MTG and her constituents have said loudly they don’t want their district broken up for redistricting - she’s not looking to “take one for the team” and her constituents don’t want to be paired with inner suburbs. Not saying it won’t happen, but I think this is a factor to consider.

Does the average constituent of that district actually pay much attention to redistricting?

I don't know about the average constituent, but we are seeing plenty of evidence from other states that people in rural areas will show up at meetings and fill out feedback forms to ask to be kept separate from crowded cities and suburbs.

Here they are showing up at a hearing in Dalton, Ga.

https://acluga.org/panel-hears-requests-to-keep-14th-congressional-district-intact-push-for-transparency-in-the-redistricting-process/

https://www.valdostadailytimes.com/news/local_news/residents-call-for-voting-district-transparency-rep-greene-supporters-resist-redistricting/article_1ee80ec9-489e-533b-9b86-13f5af733ff8.html
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Brittain33
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« Reply #536 on: September 07, 2021, 03:04:32 PM »

Constituents? And how much influence do you think MTG has vis a vis the Pub power structure with the pencil?


I don't know, but it's probably enough to make "Very likely" and "definitely" questionable descriptors of the inevitability of her district heading into Cobb. People seem to assume there is no force at all working against using GA-14 to soak up Dem voters in the inner suburbs. But people are already speaking up at hearings, and there are active county Republican orgs who probably don't want to share power with Cobb.
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Torie
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« Reply #537 on: September 07, 2021, 05:50:44 PM »
« Edited: September 07, 2021, 05:54:52 PM by Torie »

Constituents? And how much influence do you think MTG has vis a vis the Pub power structure with the pencil?


I don't know, but it's probably enough to make "Very likely" and "definitely" questionable descriptors of the inevitability of her district heading into Cobb. People seem to assume there is no force at all working against using GA-14 to soak up Dem voters in the inner suburbs. But people are already speaking up at hearings, and there are active county Republican orgs who probably don't want to share power with Cobb.

We shall see. The portion of Cobb I put in her district is a third of the population of her district,
and Trump carried that portion by 2 points, and the district by 27 points. It will not control the Pub primary, nor threaten her hold on the CD.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #538 on: September 07, 2021, 09:15:07 PM »

Constituents? And how much influence do you think MTG has vis a vis the Pub power structure with the pencil?


I don't know, but it's probably enough to make "Very likely" and "definitely" questionable descriptors of the inevitability of her district heading into Cobb. People seem to assume there is no force at all working against using GA-14 to soak up Dem voters in the inner suburbs. But people are already speaking up at hearings, and there are active county Republican orgs who probably don't want to share power with Cobb.
Adam Griffin upthread has talked about how in the GA state legislature there are a lot of GOP legislators from NW GA, which would object to the dilution of GA-14's character for sake of shoring up other districts.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #539 on: September 07, 2021, 09:18:24 PM »
« Edited: September 08, 2021, 05:41:15 AM by Brittain33 »

Constituents? And how much influence do you think MTG has vis a vis the Pub power structure with the pencil?


I don't know, but it's probably enough to make "Very likely" and "definitely" questionable descriptors of the inevitability of her district heading into Cobb. People seem to assume there is no force at all working against using GA-14 to soak up Dem voters in the inner suburbs. But people are already speaking up at hearings, and there are active county Republican orgs who probably don't want to share power with Cobb.

We shall see. The portion of Cobb I put in her district is a third of the population of her district,
and Trump carried that portion by 2 points, and the district by 27 points. It will not control the Pub primary, nor threaten her hold on the CD.


Paulding County would be 20% of the district, no? That would be a good base for a candidate.

I’m not nitpicking anyone’s GOP gerrymander or saying what will definitely happen.
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Torie
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« Reply #540 on: September 08, 2021, 07:37:24 AM »

Constituents? And how much influence do you think MTG has vis a vis the Pub power structure with the pencil?


I don't know, but it's probably enough to make "Very likely" and "definitely" questionable descriptors of the inevitability of her district heading into Cobb. People seem to assume there is no force at all working against using GA-14 to soak up Dem voters in the inner suburbs. But people are already speaking up at hearings, and there are active county Republican orgs who probably don't want to share power with Cobb.

We shall see. The portion of Cobb I put in her district is a third of the population of her district,
and Trump carried that portion by 2 points, and the district by 27 points. It will not control the Pub primary, nor threaten her hold on the CD.


Paulding County would be 20% of the district, no? That would be a good base for a candidate.

I’m not nitpicking anyone’s GOP gerrymander or saying what will definitely happen.

OK. Trump carried Paulding by 29 points.
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Sol
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« Reply #541 on: September 08, 2021, 08:07:40 AM »

Paulding definitely has crummy demographic developments for Republicans though, as it's sort of an extension of Southern, not Northern, Cobb. It's becoming quite a bit more diverse, and we've seen how starkly Atlanta suburbs can change in even a decade.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #542 on: September 08, 2021, 08:10:43 AM »

Paulding definitely has crummy demographic developments for Republicans though, as it's sort of an extension of Southern, not Northern, Cobb. It's becoming quite a bit more diverse, and we've seen how starkly Atlanta suburbs can change in even a decade.

It also swung 11 points left between 2016 and 2020.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #543 on: September 08, 2021, 09:37:12 AM »

Here is my 2nd version of a 8-6 R map. Based on 2020 Prez numbers.

McBath and Bordeaux districts turn into safe D sinks.

GA-2 extends further east into the GA Black belt.

GA-9 & GA-10 switches places as Hice runs for the GA SOS against Rathensburger, thus the new GA-10 becomes a new open R seat in NE GA that takes in part of "Milton County"

GA-11 & GA-14 takes in part of the rapidly dem trending GOP areas of Cobb County. Trump won these two districts by massive 38.9% and 41.7% margins respectively.

They're 4 black majority seats.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e3dc3ec-4da6-4556-929e-011a57a09a1a

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #544 on: September 08, 2021, 09:39:16 AM »

Here is my 2nd version of a 8-6 R map. Based on 2020 Prez numbers.

McBath and Bordeaux districts turn into safe D sinks.

GA-2 extends further east into the GA Black belt.

GA-9 & GA-10 switches places as Hice runs for the GA SOS against Rathensburger, thus the new GA-10 becomes a new open R seat in NE GA that takes in part of "Milton County"

GA-11 & GA-14 takes in part of the rapidly dem trending GOP areas of Cobb County. Trump won these two districts by massive 38.9% and 41.7% margins respectively.

They're 4 black majority seats.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e3dc3ec-4da6-4556-929e-011a57a09a1a


This map should hold as well as the 2003-2013 gerrymander in CA did.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #545 on: September 08, 2021, 01:37:05 PM »

Here is my 2nd version of a 8-6 R map. Based on 2020 Prez numbers.

McBath and Bordeaux districts turn into safe D sinks.

GA-2 extends further east into the GA Black belt.

GA-9 & GA-10 switches places as Hice runs for the GA SOS against Rathensburger, thus the new GA-10 becomes a new open R seat in NE GA that takes in part of "Milton County"

GA-11 & GA-14 takes in part of the rapidly dem trending GOP areas of Cobb County. Trump won these two districts by massive 38.9% and 41.7% margins respectively.

They're 4 black majority seats.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e3dc3ec-4da6-4556-929e-011a57a09a1a


This map should hold as well as the 2003-2013 gerrymander in CA did.

8-6 doesn't have to be conceded for the GA-GOP to get a relatively trend-proof map.  Most likely seat allocation is still 10-4, with Bishop's seat being preserved while the 3 ATL vote sinks get even more erose.

I'm still working on my 10-4 GOP map now that the 2020 Census numbers are out, but will be sharing it soon.
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« Reply #546 on: September 08, 2021, 01:54:46 PM »

Here is my 2nd version of a 8-6 R map. Based on 2020 Prez numbers.

McBath and Bordeaux districts turn into safe D sinks.

GA-2 extends further east into the GA Black belt.

GA-9 & GA-10 switches places as Hice runs for the GA SOS against Rathensburger, thus the new GA-10 becomes a new open R seat in NE GA that takes in part of "Milton County"

GA-11 & GA-14 takes in part of the rapidly dem trending GOP areas of Cobb County. Trump won these two districts by massive 38.9% and 41.7% margins respectively.

They're 4 black majority seats.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e3dc3ec-4da6-4556-929e-011a57a09a1a


This map should hold as well as the 2003-2013 gerrymander in CA did.

8-6 doesn't have to be conceded for the GA-GOP to get a relatively trend-proof map.  Most likely seat allocation is still 10-4, with Bishop's seat being preserved while the 3 ATL vote sinks get even more erose.

I'm still working on my 10-4 GOP map now that the 2020 Census numbers are out, but will be sharing it soon.
I agree the GOP does not need to concede 6 seats to Dems. But at the same time I think there are concerns that make a practical 10R-4D that will last at least three election cycles hard in practice; it is better off doing an ironclad 9R-5D.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #547 on: September 08, 2021, 02:05:41 PM »

Are there any reasons Republicans might prefer an Augusta-Macon-Albany district to a Macon-Columbus-Albany district, or are we pretty certain that the configuration of GA-02 isn't going to change significantly (barring the GOP stupidly trying to destroy it entirely)?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #548 on: September 17, 2021, 01:38:44 AM »

Are there any reasons Republicans might prefer an Augusta-Macon-Albany district to a Macon-Columbus-Albany district, or are we pretty certain that the configuration of GA-02 isn't going to change significantly (barring the GOP stupidly trying to destroy it entirely)?

That would almost certainly make the district more Dem-friendly than the current iteration of GA-2 (and by a considerable amount, as it would take in more white voters who aren't going 90-10 in favor of Rs) and might even force some R weakening of other downstate districts (for instance, I could easily see a sub-Augusta, coastal district being only 5-10 points in favor of Trump '20).

SW GA as a whole is becoming more favorable to Rs with its population collapse (while it is becoming blacker, the whites that remain have become much more R). It's not unfeasible for the GOP to draw some similar incarnation of the current GA-2 that could have a chance at flipping by the end of the decade or whenever Bishop retires.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #549 on: September 19, 2021, 03:03:00 AM »

okay, here's my incomplete first draft of what I expect to see from redistricting (please read the notes below the map before you respond!)

click on map to embiggen



Notes

A. Completely disregard all GOP districts except for 6 and 9 (i.e., ignore districts 1, 3, 8, 10, 11, 12, 14) because they do not take incumbency or any other factors into account. They were only drawn to fill out the rest of the map after designing the districts where race and/or partisanship is actually relevant.

B. For the reasons I explained earlier in the thread, I am fairly confident the new 2nd District will be very similar to what I've drawn here, with only minor differences around its border at most. Most notably I could see the General Assembly putting more of northeast Houston County into the 8th. Doing so would put the entirety of Warner Robins Air Force Base into Austin Scott's district, which could improve his standing on the House Armed Services Committee. They did something similar last decade - the current 1st District includes a slice of Lowndes County because they wanted Moody AFB represented by Jack Kingston

C. In my map, the 4th, 5th, and 13th districts remain VRA districts. Their bacon-strip design elegantly allows them to remain optimally packed full of Democrats without excessively packing them with African American voters (which would be an unconstitutional racial gerrymander). As a result the composition of all three districts is something like 51% black, 49% white liberals + hispanics. The current State House map heavily relies on this strategy in Fulton/DeKalb:



D. I'm much less certain of the 7th District's eventual layout, but I believe the legislature will deem a Gwinnett-based Dem sink necessary to ensure every Republican district remains safe all the way to 2030. If they decide on an extremely aggressive map this will be the district they chop apart, but thus far I see no indication that the GA Republicans will abandon the relatively cautious approach that has characterized their gerrymanders since they took over the state government two decades ago.

E. The 6th and 9th districts won't necessarily look exactly how I've drawn it, but the general principle of the design is to take the left-trending northern suburbs and shore them up with the exurbs further northwards that form the new rapidly-growing core of the Georgia Republican party. North Fulton and North Gwinnett are already becoming Dem-friendly, and Forsyth County will join them by the end of the decade. I expect these regions to be paired with portions of Atlanta's exurban belt: Hall and Cherokee Counties, certainly. Quite possibly Bartow County as well

I'll post the statistics for these districts in the morning, might add additional comments as well.

Questions and feedback are welcome!
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