Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Adam Griffin]

Well thank y'all for your kind 8 seat maps, but the GA GOP doesn't even need to go close to that

https://imgur.com/a/cpbG9t6

Here's a safe R 11-3 map.

Green ATL District - 22%-75%, Clinton +53

Purple ATL District - 15%-83%, Clinton +68

Orange ATL District - 13%-85%, Clinton +72

Yellow ATL District - 57%-38%, Trump +19

Greenish-Blue ATL District - 57%-39%, Trump +18

Grey ATL District - 58%-38%, Trump +20

Purple District that includes Athens (to the right of ATL) - 60%-37%, Trump +23

Illuminated Blue district along SC border - 61-37%, Trump +24

Pink District that includes Savannah - 59-38%, Trump +21

Light Green South GA district - 60-38%, Trump +22

North to Central GA light blue district - 70-28%, Trump +42

Brown District South of ATL - 57-40%, Trump+17

Alabama Border District - 64-34, Trump +30

Weird Central GA Orange District - 62-36, Trump +26

It ain't pretty, but it gives you 11 safe R Trump +17 or higher districts. There's no need to come even close to an 8 seat map - drawing an 11 seat map isn't even too hard, though a 10 seater might be better to avoid VRA trouble.

Prior to the suburban collapse, you could easily draw a 12-2 or even a 13-1 under the right circumstances (the former may still be possible), but they're just as realistic as the one above: no way would that hold up in court, even if just on the splicing alone.

You've packed black voters into 2 60%+ black VAP districts and proceeded to crack the 3rd required district (which can't be much more than 40% black VAP from the looks of it); not a single one of those would be Section 2 VRA-compatible. It would be hilarious if the GAGOP tried this, it somehow managed to stand for a single cycle, and a Democratic Governor was elected in 2022 who would then force the maps to be drawn by the courts.

Required reading: the last congressional map passed by Democrats in GA; the Barnes Dummymander

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Well thank y'all for your kind 8 seat maps, but the GA GOP doesn't even need to go close to that

https://imgur.com/a/cpbG9t6

Here's a safe R 11-3 map.

Green ATL District - 22%-75%, Clinton +53

Purple ATL District - 15%-83%, Clinton +68

Orange ATL District - 13%-85%, Clinton +72

Yellow ATL District - 57%-38%, Trump +19

Greenish-Blue ATL District - 57%-39%, Trump +18

Grey ATL District - 58%-38%, Trump +20

Purple District that includes Athens (to the right of ATL) - 60%-37%, Trump +23

Illuminated Blue district along SC border - 61-37%, Trump +24

Pink District that includes Savannah - 59-38%, Trump +21

Light Green South GA district - 60-38%, Trump +22

North to Central GA light blue district - 70-28%, Trump +42

Brown District South of ATL - 57-40%, Trump+17

Alabama Border District - 64-34, Trump +30

Weird Central GA Orange District - 62-36, Trump +26

It ain't pretty, but it gives you 11 safe R Trump +17 or higher districts. There's no need to come even close to an 8 seat map - drawing an 11 seat map isn't even too hard, though a 10 seater might be better to avoid VRA trouble.

Prior to the suburban collapse, you could easily draw a 12-2 or even a 13-1 under the right circumstances (the former may still be possible), but they're just as realistic as the one above: no way would that hold up in court, even if just on the splicing alone.

You've packed black voters into 2 60%+ black VAP districts and proceeded to crack the 3rd required district (which can't be much more than 40% black VAP from the looks of it); not a single one of those would be Section 2 VRA-compatible. It would be hilarious if the GAGOP tried this, it somehow managed to stand for a single cycle, and a Democratic Governor was elected in 2022 who would then force the maps to be drawn by the courts.

Required reading: the last congressional map passed by Democrats in GA; the Barnes Dummymander

Yep - the GOP objectively shouldn't pass this map. However, it does show that they can actually draw a safe R 10 map (the probable legal maximum), and that all this talk of 8-6 maps is nothing but dreams.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://imgur.com/a/pFAldhX

Here's a better GA map, probably legal, much cleaner and more compact, safe 10-4.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Heres a hypothetical GA map:



District   Ethnicity   White   Black   Native   Asian/PI   Hispanic   Other
1   Mostly White   60%   29%   0%   2%   7%   2%
2   Black / White Mix   52%   39%   0%   1%   6%   1%
3   Mostly White   61%   30%   0%   2%   5%   2%
4   Mostly Black   29%   54%   0%   6%   9%   2%
5   Black / White Mix   35%   52%   0%   4%   8%   2%
6   Mostly White   51%   19%   0%   12%   15%   3%
7   Mixed   41%   27%   0%   10%   20%   2%
8   Black / White Mix   54%   37%   0%   1%   6%   2%
9   Solid White   77%   5%   0%   4%   13%   2%
10   Mostly White   66%   23%   0%   2%   7%   2%
11   Mostly White   69%   19%   0%   3%   7%   2%
12   Black / White Mix   55%   37%   0%   2%   4%   2%
13   Mostly Black   29%   56%   0%   3%   9%   2%
14   Solid White   79%   6%   0%   1%   12%   1%


2016 vote:
GA-01: Trump +10
GA-02: Trump +17
GA-03: Trump +25
GA-04: Clinton +63
GA-05: Clinton +53
GA-06: Clinton +4
GA-07: Clinton +5
GA-08: Trump +18
GA-09: Trump +52
GA-10: Trump +24
GA-11: Trump +35
GA-12: Trump +11
GA-13: Clinton +38
GA-14: Trump +56


The map would likely provide a reliable 8R-5D delegation. Its a bit of a safer choice for the GOP, but its a map that can last.

This is what I expect will happen.  There will be no appetite to MD-02/03/04 the North GA mountains to Atlanta.

Why on earth would the GOP pass this? By the time you get to GA-06/GA-07, they're almost throwing away seats. And since when has Brian Kemp not shown his willingness to be electorally bold?

[Adam Griffin]

https://imgur.com/a/pFAldhX

Here's a better GA map, probably legal, much cleaner and more compact, safe 10-4.

Once again, you've made a critical mistake: the 3 black-majority/plurality districts in Metro ATL are required - without packing or cracking - and you can't substitute one of those by drawing an east-to-west abomination connecting Albany, Columbus, Macon & Augusta. Looks like the 2 black-majority districts you've included in the metro are severely packed (>60% black VAP). The gray one almost certainly wouldn't pass muster (majority-minority I'm sure, but that's not the same thing; thanks, Gingles!)

I'll make it easy for you: draw 3 districts in metro ATL where black voters are the largest group in each (between 48-55% VAP; ideally based on 2016 estimates) before doing anything else. Then see how far you can extend the dominance of the GOP without creating multiple vulnerabilities and/or drawing absolutely atrocious lines. There's a reason why the GOP maps of 2011 were the first since the passage of the VRA that didn't undergo massive court challenges: they aren't the type to take risks (try being out of power for 150+ years and then gambling your fleeting decade-long majority with some bad maps).

[EastAnglianLefty]

What's the case for 55% VAP being the upper limit? Given that the Supreme Court isn't exactly keen on defending the VRA, surely there's an incentive to push the envelope there? More generally, it looks like it shouldn't be that hard to remove largely white precincts from the 3 VRA districts and replace them with more Hispanic/Asian precincts from GA-6 and GA-7.

The east to west abomination won't satisfy the Gingles criteria, but it might be an effective way of packing GA-2 and freeing up space for other districts to bacon-slice the Atlanta metro.

[Former President tack50]

Ok, here's a map I've created that has only 3 Dem districts (the 3 majority black districts near Atlanta). It's an 11-3 map and only one of the R districts should be vulnerable at all. Yes the districts are somewhat ugly but it's not like they are complete abominations.

Granted it's done with 2010 numbers as I don't know how to do maps with 2019 numbers, especially not while having also the 2016 election results but still, considering it's an 11-3 map the GOP should be able to give Dems a 4th district somewhere in order to save their 10 others in this map



Election numbers:

1: Trump+16
2: Trump+20
3: Trump+8
4: Clinton+74 (52% black VAP)
5: Clinton+58 (52% black VAP)
6: Trump+24
7: Trump+18
8: Trump+21
9: Trump+17
10: Trump+22
11: Trump+19
12: Trump+20
13: Clinton+36 (51% black VAP)
14: Trump+59

The only vulnerable district would be district 3, but even that one would only fall in a wave, and I don't think it's trending D either? (it's nowhere near Atlanta after all)

I imagine this map would have held for the entirety of the 2010-2020 decade?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://imgur.com/a/pFAldhX

Here's a better GA map, probably legal, much cleaner and more compact, safe 10-4.

Once again, you've made a critical mistake: the 3 black-majority/plurality districts in Metro ATL are required - without packing or cracking - and you can't substitute one of those by drawing an east-to-west abomination connecting Albany, Columbus, Macon & Augusta. Looks like the 2 black-majority districts you've included in the metro are severely packed (>60% black VAP). The gray one almost certainly wouldn't pass muster (majority-minority I'm sure, but that's not the same thing; thanks, Gingles!)

I'll make it easy for you: draw 3 districts in metro ATL where black voters are the largest group in each (between 48-55% VAP; ideally based on 2016 estimates) before doing anything else. Then see how far you can extend the dominance of the GOP without creating multiple vulnerabilities and/or drawing absolutely atrocious lines. There's a reason why the GOP maps of 2011 were the first since the passage of the VRA that didn't undergo massive court challenges: they aren't the type to take risks (try being out of power for 150+ years and then gambling your fleeting decade-long majority with some bad maps).

I'll just take the South Fulton district and shift it with the "monstrosity" then - not too hard.

[Adam Griffin]

What's the case for 55% VAP being the upper limit? Given that the Supreme Court isn't exactly keen on defending the VRA, surely there's an incentive to push the envelope there? More generally, it looks like it shouldn't be that hard to remove largely white precincts from the 3 VRA districts and replace them with more Hispanic/Asian precincts from GA-6 and GA-7.

The east to west abomination won't satisfy the Gingles criteria, but it might be an effective way of packing GA-2 and freeing up space for other districts to bacon-slice the Atlanta metro.

It's somewhat subjective, but around that number is when VRA packing cases tend to start being quite successful. There are of course a number of factors that can impact such, but for a congressional map in GA, I'm comfortable in saying that you don't want to exceed that figure if your maps making it through the decade are a priority.

[Nyvin]

What's the case for 55% VAP being the upper limit? Given that the Supreme Court isn't exactly keen on defending the VRA, surely there's an incentive to push the envelope there? More generally, it looks like it shouldn't be that hard to remove largely white precincts from the 3 VRA districts and replace them with more Hispanic/Asian precincts from GA-6 and GA-7.

The east to west abomination won't satisfy the Gingles criteria, but it might be an effective way of packing GA-2 and freeing up space for other districts to bacon-slice the Atlanta metro.

It really feels like the national environment is moving away from bacon-strip districts.   They're just not feasible anymore with so much public attention on them.   The days of connecting inner metros with far flung rural areas are probably over.

[Skill and Chance]

What's the case for 55% VAP being the upper limit? Given that the Supreme Court isn't exactly keen on defending the VRA, surely there's an incentive to push the envelope there? More generally, it looks like it shouldn't be that hard to remove largely white precincts from the 3 VRA districts and replace them with more Hispanic/Asian precincts from GA-6 and GA-7.

The east to west abomination won't satisfy the Gingles criteria, but it might be an effective way of packing GA-2 and freeing up space for other districts to bacon-slice the Atlanta metro.

Now

It really feels like the national environment is moving away from bacon-strip districts.   They're just not feasible anymore with so much public attention on them.   The days of connecting inner metros with far flung rural areas are probably over.

This.  Moderates of the legislature's own party are going to be very turned off by MD-02/03/04 style districts in this environment.  That having been said, there isn't much of a backdoor available to voters in GA to undo a gerrymander before the end of the decade (no referendum process, state courts are technically elected, but it's nonpartisan and historically incumbents basically never lose after they are appointed), so it is arguably one of the safer states for the legislature to push the limits in or, alternatively, keep updating the gerrymander every 2 years.

Right now, the primary limit on this in states like Georgia is the VRA, but courts really have been reluctant to aggressively apply it and it looks like they will only get less aggressive in 2021.  Now that JBE has been reelected with Republicans below the veto override threshold, there will be a 2021 test case to create a 2nd VRA protected district in Louisiana, but that will get appealed to the 5th Circuit, which, given its current composition, will probably rule that the VRA doesn't apply to redistricting at all.  I don't see Roberts and Kavanaugh going along with that, full stop, but I do think court changes to maps based on VRA will slow to a trickle in the 2020's. 

[Libertas Vel Mors]

This isn't 55% VAP, but here's the map with all 3 plurality or majority black:

https://imgur.com/a/TerwfXj

Considering these are Atlanta districts + current composition of SC, I think it's reasonable to say a Virginia style standard could be applied - ie because of more liberal whites/Hispanics it's okay to have a high plurality or low majority black district, since black voters will still be able to select their chosen representative. Thoughts?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Map above has 3 black majority and 1 black plurality (ATL has 1 black plurality and 2 black majority, and there's a third black majority district in central GA).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Ok, final version.

https://imgur.com/a/Do9el9i

Certifiably VRA compliant, all VRA districts are 48% or higher (minimum is 49.6%).

[lfromnj]

Would this satisfy the VRA for GA 2? This packs more of Atlanta to be safer for the GA GOp but still has 4 black majority districts(actually all around 49% VAP)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Would this satisfy the VRA for GA 2? This packs more of Atlanta to be safer for the GA GOp but still has 4 black majority districts(actually all around 49% VAP)

Pretty sure that's legal, although the green district might fall afoul as too hard packing, like the NC Charlotte -> Greensboro one did.

[Nyvin]

Would this satisfy the VRA for GA 2? This packs more of Atlanta to be safer for the GA GOp but still has 4 black majority districts(actually all around 49% VAP)

That would make for some really ugly Appalachia seats up north though.

[Adam Griffin]

Would this satisfy the VRA for GA 2? This packs more of Atlanta to be safer for the GA GOp but still has 4 black majority districts(actually all around 49% VAP)

Hilariously enough, reducing all 3 black VRA districts to pluralities could possibly open up arguments for both packing and cracking here. There is some subjectivity to it, but on one hand, this vaguely resembles what Democrats might try to do (spread black VAP as thin as possible to maximize seats) and what the GOP would pursue (cramming various non-compact black communities together). Even if cracking doesn't benefit the GOP necessarily, that doesn't mean it can't be used as an argument against the maps.

Drawing a 4th black-plurality district also doesn't offset any inadequacies with the 3 required districts: it's not a matter of "balancing things out" in this case.

Remember that GA-2 was 49.5% BVAP as drawn in 2011, and still isn't VRA-protected. Honestly, I think it'd be better to slightly exceed the 55% BVAP threshold (after all, the GOP did this by a tad in 2011: the 3 black-majority districts were 53.9%, 56.4% and 57.6% VAP) than leaving all of them as plurality-black VAP districts, if surviving legal challenges is the goal.

[Oryxslayer]

Georgia

The redistricting discussion around Georgia has already started, so I need to catch up with my analyses. I suggest someone edit their earlier post to add a link, a quote, or just a copy paste of this analysis, so that this can become the official Georgia thread.  Georgia to a lesser extent is a mini-Texas when it comes to redistricting, except Georgia lacks the neat flowchart of potential maps. The state is rapidly getting blue, and PVI is an awfully flawed indicator. Both states face the problem that a bunch of areas that may need to be in blue seats are red, and a bunch of areas that are red right now may become democratic locks in in next decade. It’s hard to remember that Gingrich represented the same territory as McBath. Therefore, what maps may come depend entirely on the opinions of those at the table and how cautious or ambitious they may desire their lines to be.

Link to 2010 Atlas Discussion

Redistricting History

Georgia redistricting has always been a closed-door affair, be it under the dixiecrats or the GOP. This is despite the fact that the democratic base since the turn of thee century has been African Americans, a group that is booming off the success of Atlanta. Looking back to the year 2000, democrats had small majorities in both legislative chambers and controlled the gubernatorial office. Despite this, the majority of the congressional delegation was republican. The two new districts Georgia was to be apportioned that decade offered a golden opportunity to state democrats and they took it even though their demographic data was flashing red lights. Displaying their desperation, the dixiecrats ended up passing a map that would rival Texas’s “Dixiecratic desperation map.” Seats tentacled every which way to maximize the potential of their disconnected democratic voters. The two new seats were drown to be easy dem pickups (one as an AA seat), the central Georgian Macon seat lost committed republicans, and the 11th became an unholy tentacle which could have elected a dixiecrat (but never did). Satisfied with their work, the dixiecratic legislature passed the map over the heads of howling Republicans who called for fair maps and preservation of counties.

Georgia's Districts from 2000 to 2004, Credit to Wikipedia

Every political party that draws heinous districts eventually receives it’s comeuppance, and the dixiecrats received theirs in 2004. In a process quite standard to our ears today, plaintiffs challenged all of the maps passed in 2000 (believe it or not there were worse lines on the house and senate map) and got all three thrown out. The state appealed to the feds rather than make an effort at a redraw in its allotted time, and when Washington said no a three-judge panel selected a special master. The masters map kept many of the districts bases as they were, such as the cut of Savannah, but eliminated most democratic excesses. The map no longer looked like spaghetti and the GOP now had serious chances at the central Mcon and Augusta seats. They just had the problem of the 2006 and 2008 waves, which preserved both districts vulnerable dixiecrats. The 2010 Republican wave was required to finally reap the sowed potential and flip the central seat bringing Georgia to a 9-5 delegation.

Georgia's Districts from 2004 to 2010, Credit to Wikipedia

It was now the GOP’s turn to have uncontested control of redistricting.  Going into 2010 Georgia desired to pick a fight with the Obama DOJ regarded VRA preclearance (remember that?). All the power players on republican redistricting side were from the growing north of the state, suggesting that both the new 14th seat would slide into the region, and the present GOP incumbents in the region would get priority treatment. After several public sessions, the GOP decided to go with their partisan gut and carve off as much as they could chew. Barrow’s Augusta seat was carved into two new GOP seats. Even though he would barely hold the seat in 2012, Barrow couldn’t survive inertia and lost in the 2014 midterms. The four remaining democratic seats took in more African Americans, cracking what remained of the party into oblivion. Despite the scheming of Republican cheerleaders, the DOJ would never have approved a map that decreased African American seats as the state gained both AA pop and a congressional district. The new map was neat, and anticipated the incoming dixiecratic realignment in a manner that favored the Incumbent GOP.

Georgia's Districts since 2010, Credit to Wikipedia

Since 2011

The GOP map was more or less perfect in 2010. It passed Obama’s DOJ but also drew away Barrow. It packed the areas moving towards the democrats into seats already solidly blue. The problem for the Republican Party was that it was a perfect map drawn for 2010. Atlanta is booming, and in the  span of five years community demographics in certain suburban areas have changed, drastically. New developments and old owners cashing in on a high housing market has led to most notably Gwinnett flipping from a solidly McCain to safely Democratic in ten years. It helps that most of the voters moving into Atlanta are minorities or northern whites, seeking to get their own piece of the city’s opportunity.

We all know how this story ends. Suburban rejection of Trump paired with in-migration of favorable demographics led to the supposedly safe 6th returning marginal result. Trump’s appointment of Price to the cabinet opened up the high-profile Ossoff vs Handel special, which resulted in a lot of bluster and a marginal Republican hold. Then a year later McBath kicked out Handel, Abrams nearly won statewide, and Woodall found himself on the front lines. At the same  time, the South of the state got redder: dixiecratic whites continue to die and African Americans crave the  opportunity Atlanta offers. Woodall has retired, and the Democrats now have their sights set of the Peach State in 2020.

2021

So, who wants to take a shot at Georgia for 2020? It’s legitimately one of the hardest states to redistrict because there are so many variables up in the air right now. This is the case in most redistricting battlegrounds, but Georgia and her big brother Texas have the most uncertainty.

Perhaps the best place to start with is the “Known Knowns.” First, Georgia has to have at least four African American seats. The state AA population and pop distribution demanded four seats in 2010 and the AA numbers have only gone up. Any attempt to pack AA voters into 60% AA seats would not even survive till 2022, it’s that blatant. There is a reason why in 2010 the Georgia GOP made their AA packs “combo” seats with AAs majority, non-AA minorities, urban liberal whites, and GOP areas that would not be GOP for much longer. Secondly, you cannot cut Bishop’s seat without a fight. Now, the GOP would love to carve up Bishop and certainly can, the Southwest has the Republican votes for it. But, one would have to go before the court and make the case that cutting his seat did not decrease AA opportunity. It isn’t protected by perfect VRA compliance, but it is shielded by the state’s demographic percentages. Atlanta would need to provide much more AA opportunity than it currently does in order to compensate for the cut. Third, the GOP legislators in the growing north and shrinking south of the state like to keep the communities intact and play to their strengths, it’s what happened in 2010 after all. Finally, the fourth “Known Known” is that serious bacon-stripping seems to be going out of fashion as data becomes readily accessible. Unless your name is Madigan it’s far easier to try and pack your opposition in rather than hideously crack everyone to bits.

Beyond that though an entire pandora’s box of districts opens up. What’s the GOP goal: to hold on to total control or to hold on to their potential maximum? How much can Atlanta growth be accounted for and put in blue seats so that it doesn’t endanger the GOP in the future? Will there be an attempt to stretch an AA seat from Atlanta to the belt so as to account for future demographic change? Will the 2nd get cut or extended? Is 2020 going to deliver results that send the GA Republicans into panic mode – it very well could. Whose base needs to be preserved and whose gets cut up? Your guess is as good as mine when we have no leads and all the information is locked in the future.

What’s Left to Decide

Basically everything. Firstly, how many incumbents are the Democrats going to have? The calculus shifts when there are six instead of five thanks to Woodall’s retirement and McBath’s pickup. How blue is the Metro in 2020? While the 2016 bombshell may be a once/twice ever occurrence, people are still moving in seeking opportunity. Buildings are still being built and homes are still getting sold to a new generation of buyers. If the Metro’s even more Blue than in 2020 then the calculus shifts again. How scary are the toplines going to be for Georgia Republicans? If there is realistic fear because the democrats keep coming close or even win the state at some level, the Maps are going to end up more lenient than maps drawn from a position of strength. What about the State Assembly? I doubt it flips, but the potential is there. What about demographic growth? Shifts in the both the Minority and the White population towards the Atlanta metro is going to cause districts, particularly in the south, to reshuffle their lines. Almost everything is up in the air here and almost everything is possible.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia
Perhaps the best place to start with is the “Known Knowns.” First, Georgia has to have at least four African American seats.

Incorrect: 3 Metro ATL plurality/majority-black districts will be all that's required barring major changes. Bishop's seat is not protected and was instead designed as a vote-sink in the 2011 map to ameliorate concerns about another Jim Marshall winning in what would certainly be a nominally-Republican South GA district at the time (given South GA's Democratic tilt for many offices then) in any set of maps that weren't obviously gerrymanders (the GOP didn't want to take risks with DoJ approval, plus they were pretty confident about Barrow falling in 2012). Additionally, I'm fairly confident the black voting age population percentage in his district (which was a plurality in 2011) has only decreased since then. McBath's seat also obviously isn't protected given the race of the candidate means nothing and it's a majority-white district.

As far as I know, simple statewide demography is not a guarantee for proportional or near-proportional congressional representation under the VRA. If so, then AL and LA both should have 2 majority-black Democratic districts. If every county in GA had 30% black population, then you would likely have no black-majority districts mandated under the VRA.

[Oryxslayer]

Georgia
Perhaps the best place to start with is the “Known Knowns.” First, Georgia has to have at least four African American seats.

Incorrect: 3 Metro ATL plurality/majority-black districts will be all that's required barring major changes. Bishop's seat is not protected and was instead designed as a vote-sink in the 2011 map to ameliorate concerns about another Jim Marshall winning in what would certainly be a nominally-Republican South GA district at the time (given South GA's Democratic tilt for many offices then) in any set of maps that weren't obviously gerrymanders (the GOP didn't want to take risks with DoJ approval, plus they were pretty confident about Barrow falling in 2012). Additionally, I'm fairly confident the black voting age population percentage in his district (which was a plurality in 2011) has only decreased since then. McBath's seat also obviously isn't protected given the race of the candidate means nothing and it's a majority-white district.

As far as I know, simple statewide demography is not a guarantee for proportional or near-proportional congressional representation under the VRA. If so, then AL and LA both should have 2 majority-black Democratic districts. If every county in GA had 30% black population, then you would likely have no black-majority districts mandated under the VRA.

I don't disagree with anything that you are  saying. However, here is the problem. If the GOP tries to cut GA-02 they end up with an instant lawsuit that they will likely lose because they tried to cut an AA opportunity seat while the states AA population is going up. The way to survive such a case is to increase AA opportunity overall, likely with a fourth seat in Atlanta. If they don't compensate than all the evidence from VA on how 50% isn't required for AA seats will likely come down here to bite the GOP in the ass. This is how GA-02 is shielded. It's a roundabout process but you either have the current three in Atlanta and the second stays (likely eating more of the belt) or a fourth AA gets added to Atlanta via the new lines and pop growth.

FTR, statewide demographics are a guideline for how many VRA districts you need on a map, you should have around said percentage of your state be VRA seats. In almost every circumstance what districts are possible to draw for minorities are a bit under their overall percentage, so you Usually need I dunno, 37% to justify 33% of the delegation. And that is also influenced by factors like turnout and racial voting, so it varys from case to case.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Im pretty sure this would be a solid 10-4 Republican map. Basically, cut Bishop's district and shift McBath down somewhere closer to Atlanta

1. Green: Trump+21
2. Purple: Clinton+45
3. Red: Clinton+33
4. Yellow: Clinton+65
5. Teal: Clinton+38
6. Gray: Trump+31
7. Blue-Gray: Trump+25
8. Cyan: Trump+59
9. Pink: Trump+32
10. Lime: Trump+21
11. Pale Blue: Trump+16
12. Salmon: Trump+21
13. Brown: Trump+15
14. Orange: Trump+22

[TML]

According to 538’s Atlas of Redistricting, there are a wide variety of ways to redistrict this state, depending on the main goal:

-The most pro-R gerrymander would be 11R-3D;
-The most pro-D gerrymander would be 8D-6R;
-A “proportionally partisan” map would be 8R-6D;
-It is possible to create as many as 7 swing districts or 6 districts where non-Whites are a majority.
-If county splits are to be kept to a minimum, it could involve as few as 11 splits (the current map has 22 splits).

[Rookie Yinzer]

What would a McBath vote sink look like?

[Adam Griffin]

What would a McBath vote sink look like?

While this uses 2010 population & 2016 presidential numbers (I might try to replicate the district using 2016 block groups, as I imagine it would be a bit smaller geographically and blacker now), this 50% BVAP would kill two birds with one stone: shove McBath into Scott's territory and consolidate the district. McBath lives in that broader peninsula in the NE Cobb portion of the district.

Here's a fun observation, though: Scott isn't registered to vote in GA-13 - at least according to the voter file. His address is clearly in GA-5, in Little Five Points. I don't know if this is a recent change or what, or if he's been running in a district he hasn't lived in for ages...?

EDIT: this has been the case since at least 2017:

There’s also Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), who represents the district. But a review of vote registration records by The Washington Post suggests that Ossoff would be the third member of Congress to make his home in the 5th. According to voter data provided to The Post by the political data firm L2, Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.) is also registered to vote in the district, instead of the 13th District that he represents.