Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #200 on: May 14, 2020, 02:16:06 PM »



Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.
That's probably a better map. I assumed it was better to split Atlanta than have multiple Cobb splits or a Fulton/De Kalb split, but the COIs are probably better respected there. Cobb still looks weird though.

Now that I revisit this map, I realize it's incredibly similar to the current district alignment in Metro ATL.  The current map is almost fair, although it really should have 2 Likely Dem and 4 Safe Dem seats in Metro Atlanta under a truly fair map Democratic gerrymander, so it seems.  No way anything like the current GA-06 survives 2021 redistricting.

FIFY
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #201 on: May 14, 2020, 02:43:23 PM »



Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.
That's probably a better map. I assumed it was better to split Atlanta than have multiple Cobb splits or a Fulton/De Kalb split, but the COIs are probably better respected there. Cobb still looks weird though.

Now that I revisit this map, I realize it's incredibly similar to the current district alignment in Metro ATL.  The current map is almost fair, although it really should have 2 Likely Dem and 4 Safe Dem seats in Metro Atlanta under a truly fair map Democratic gerrymander, so it seems.  No way anything like the current GA-06 survives 2021 redistricting.

FIFY

This may be overstating things a little bit, but that map posted leaves a lot of Democratic or marginal areas in Republican seats, such as in Kennesaw, Marietta and north Fulton (while putting east Cobb in a competitive seat that could have been made safe Democratic with Marietta instead). It's definitely not a Democratic gerrymander.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #202 on: May 14, 2020, 02:43:30 PM »



I think would be a relatively fair map of the Atlanta region. Only splits Atlanta once because I chose to keep Dekalb county whole.

Anyway
Purple =Clinton +3 Almost all of Cobb County besides 2 precints, perfectly good COI to keep whole- Lean/Likely D rn but quickly approaching Safe D.
Green = Most of Milton +Forsyth and most of Cherokee- 63% Trump and should be Safe R even by the end of 2030
Blue = most o Atlanta +SW dekalb and part of Milton county. Titanium D at 78% Clinton and 58% Black by 2018 population.
Red = Middle class suburbs +white flight suburbs South of Atlanta+ tiny chop of dekalb county. Majority black but still has relative racial polarization to keep it at only 65% Clinton
Yellow = Dekalb county and Titanium D, doesn't include a few thousand people in the SW for population purposes.
Teal = Inner Gwinett county and used to be competitive for the GOP but its +15 Clinton so Safe D and +24 Abrams so obviously Safe D. Was Mccain +4.

Overall is a 4-1-1 map with the swing district quickly becoming Safe D.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #203 on: May 14, 2020, 02:43:48 PM »



Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.
That's probably a better map. I assumed it was better to split Atlanta than have multiple Cobb splits or a Fulton/De Kalb split, but the COIs are probably better respected there. Cobb still looks weird though.

Now that I revisit this map, I realize it's incredibly similar to the current district alignment in Metro ATL.  The current map is almost fair, although it really should have 2 Likely Dem and 4 Safe Dem seats in Metro Atlanta under a truly fair map Democratic gerrymander, so it seems.  No way anything like the current GA-06 survives 2021 redistricting.

FIFY

Yeah..most of these maps are just D gerrymanders here. A "fair" GA map would likely have 3 heavily packed (Due to political geography) AA districts, a Cobb County district that votes D, and a Gwinnett County district that votes D, counterbalanced by a much closer (Clinton +2 or so) GA-02. There's absolutely no way you can call a 6 D ATL map fair.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #204 on: May 14, 2020, 02:45:12 PM »



I think would be a relatively fair map of the Atlanta region. Only splits Atlanta once because I chose to keep Dekalb county whole.

Anyway
Purple =Clinton +3 Almost all of Cobb County besides 2 precints, perfectly good COI to keep whole- Lean/Likely D rn but quickly approaching Safe D.
Green = Most of Milton +Forsyth and most of Cherokee- 63% Trump and should be Safe R even by the end of 2030
Blue = most o Atlanta +SW dekalb and part of Milton county. Titanium D at 78% Clinton and 58% Black by 2018 population.
Red = Middle class suburbs +white flight suburbs South of Atlanta+ tiny chop of dekalb county. Majority black but still has relative racial polarization to keep it at only 65% Clinton
Yellow = Dekalb county and Titanium D
Teal = Inner Gwinett county and used to be competitive for the GOP but its +15 Clinton so Safe D and +24 Abrams so obviously Safe D. Was Mccain +4.

Overall is a 4-1-1 map with the swing district quickly becoming Safe D.

Yeah, this is what I'd call fair, though in all reality the Cobb one would be Safe D in practice already with trends.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #205 on: May 14, 2020, 02:47:06 PM »



I think would be a relatively fair map of the Atlanta region. Only splits Atlanta once because I chose to keep Dekalb county whole.

Anyway
Purple =Clinton +3 Almost all of Cobb County besides 2 precints, perfectly good COI to keep whole- Lean/Likely D rn but quickly approaching Safe D.
Green = Most of Milton +Forsyth and most of Cherokee- 63% Trump and should be Safe R even by the end of 2030
Blue = most o Atlanta +SW dekalb and part of Milton county. Titanium D at 78% Clinton and 58% Black by 2018 population.
Red = Middle class suburbs +white flight suburbs South of Atlanta+ tiny chop of dekalb county. Majority black but still has relative racial polarization to keep it at only 65% Clinton
Yellow = Dekalb county and Titanium D
Teal = Inner Gwinett county and used to be competitive for the GOP but its +15 Clinton so Safe D and +24 Abrams so obviously Safe D. Was Mccain +4.

Overall is a 4-1-1 map with the swing district quickly becoming Safe D.

Yeah, this is what I'd call fair, though in all reality the Cobb one would be Safe D in practice already with trends.

I would say the GOP would have a chance of picking it up in a 2022 Biden midterm with bad minority turnout but past that its obviously Safe D and even in 2022 its a slim chance so yeah should just call it Likely D right now , don't know why I called it Lean which was just stupid.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #206 on: May 14, 2020, 02:50:48 PM »



In regards to South Georgia, here's my version of a fair district. Drawn without looking at partisan data. Numbers:

Isakson +11.1
Trump +3.6
Obama 08 +1.8
Kemp +3.9
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #207 on: May 14, 2020, 03:22:13 PM »
« Edited: May 14, 2020, 03:47:12 PM by 🌐 »



I think would be a relatively fair map of the Atlanta region. Only splits Atlanta once because I chose to keep Dekalb county whole.

Anyway
Purple =Clinton +3 Almost all of Cobb County besides 2 precints, perfectly good COI to keep whole- Lean/Likely D rn but quickly approaching Safe D.
Green = Most of Milton +Forsyth and most of Cherokee- 63% Trump and should be Safe R even by the end of 2030
Blue = most o Atlanta +SW dekalb and part of Milton county. Titanium D at 78% Clinton and 58% Black by 2018 population.
Red = Middle class suburbs +white flight suburbs South of Atlanta+ tiny chop of dekalb county. Majority black but still has relative racial polarization to keep it at only 65% Clinton
Yellow = Dekalb county and Titanium D, doesn't include a few thousand people in the SW for population purposes.
Teal = Inner Gwinett county and used to be competitive for the GOP but its +15 Clinton so Safe D and +24 Abrams so obviously Safe D. Was Mccain +4.

Overall is a 4-1-1 map with the swing district quickly becoming Safe D.

Reasonable enough, although I'd favor a map that looks more like this:



4 Safe D (Fulton/Douglass, Clayton/Henry, DeKalb, and Gwinnett)
1 Likely D (Cobb)
1 Lean R (Milton/Douglas)
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #208 on: May 14, 2020, 03:37:54 PM »
« Edited: May 14, 2020, 03:45:30 PM by Oryxslayer »

SNIP

I think would be a relatively fair map of the Atlanta region. Only splits Atlanta once because I chose to keep Dekalb county whole.

Anyway
Purple =Clinton +3 Almost all of Cobb County besides 2 precints, perfectly good COI to keep whole- Lean/Likely D rn but quickly approaching Safe D.
Green = Most of Milton +Forsyth and most of Cherokee- 63% Trump and should be Safe R even by the end of 2030
Blue = most o Atlanta +SW dekalb and part of Milton county. Titanium D at 78% Clinton and 58% Black by 2018 population.
Red = Middle class suburbs +white flight suburbs South of Atlanta+ tiny chop of dekalb county. Majority black but still has relative racial polarization to keep it at only 65% Clinton
Yellow = Dekalb county and Titanium D, doesn't include a few thousand people in the SW for population purposes.
Teal = Inner Gwinett county and used to be competitive for the GOP but its +15 Clinton so Safe D and +24 Abrams so obviously Safe D. Was Mccain +4.

Overall is a 4-1-1 map with the swing district quickly becoming Safe D.
http://Reasonable enough, although I'd favor a map that looks more like this:


4 Safe D (Fulton/Douglass, Clayton/Fayette/South Fulton, DeKalb, Gwinnett)
1 Likely D (Cobb)
1 Tossup (Milton/Douglas)

You should probably move the Gwinett, Cobb and Milton seat each a tier towards the GOP at least by rating, considering their base partisanship. Your Milton seat is +9 Trump, Your Cobb seat is +1 Clinton, and your Gwinett  seat is +6 Clinton. That looks like Lean/Likely R, Tossup, and Lean/Likely D to me.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #209 on: May 14, 2020, 03:51:28 PM »

You should probably move the Gwinett, Cobb and Milton seat each a tier towards the GOP at least by rating, considering their base partisanship. Your Milton seat is +9 Trump, Your Cobb seat is +1 Clinton, and your Gwinett  seat is +6 Clinton. That looks like Lean/Likely R, Tossup, and Lean/Likely D to me.

Honestly, I think Abrams/Kemp numbers are more relevant for Georgia.

Milton is Kemp+4
Cobb is Abrams+9
Gwinett is Abrams+15

These districts are zooming left incredibly fast and not moving back. I'm comfortable with my ratings. Also, I adjusted my map a little because I realized my red district was less than 50% black, but that doesn't impact the three aforementioned districts.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #210 on: May 14, 2020, 03:57:34 PM »
« Edited: May 14, 2020, 04:09:29 PM by Oryxslayer »

You should probably move the Gwinett, Cobb and Milton seat each a tier towards the GOP at least by rating, considering their base partisanship. Your Milton seat is +9 Trump, Your Cobb seat is +1 Clinton, and your Gwinett  seat is +6 Clinton. That looks like Lean/Likely R, Tossup, and Lean/Likely D to me.

Honestly, I think Abrams/Kemp numbers are more relevant for Georgia.

Milton is Kemp+4
Cobb is Abrams+9
Gwinett is Abrams+15

These districts are zooming left incredibly fast and not moving back. I'm comfortable with my ratings. Also, I adjusted my map a little because I realized my red district was less than 50% black, but that doesn't impact the three aforementioned districts.

Didn't realize GA added the gov numbers. Anyway, since they did, I would personally be using an average of 2016 and 2018 because while yes, the seats are zooming left as democrats moved in, turnout disparity was also a factor.

Using history as ones guide for instance tells us that 2010 was a good guide for future GOP strength, however it would take a while to fully emerge. Lowered Dem turnout (worse than 2018 GOP, buts that's because the coalitions are different) allowed a glimpse at what was to come.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #211 on: May 15, 2020, 05:40:45 AM »



Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.
That's probably a better map. I assumed it was better to split Atlanta than have multiple Cobb splits or a Fulton/De Kalb split, but the COIs are probably better respected there. Cobb still looks weird though.

Now that I revisit this map, I realize it's incredibly similar to the current district alignment in Metro ATL.  The current map is almost fair, although it really should have 2 Likely Dem and 4 Safe Dem seats in Metro Atlanta under a truly fair map Democratic gerrymander, so it seems.  No way anything like the current GA-06 survives 2021 redistricting.

FIFY

Yeah..most of these maps are just D gerrymanders here. A "fair" GA map would likely have 3 heavily packed (Due to political geography) AA districts, a Cobb County district that votes D, and a Gwinnett County district that votes D, counterbalanced by a much closer (Clinton +2 or so) GA-02. There's absolutely no way you can call a 6 D ATL map fair.

Georgia is essencially a Lean R state, how is a 6-8 map not fair?
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« Reply #212 on: May 15, 2020, 12:50:52 PM »



Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.
That's probably a better map. I assumed it was better to split Atlanta than have multiple Cobb splits or a Fulton/De Kalb split, but the COIs are probably better respected there. Cobb still looks weird though.

Now that I revisit this map, I realize it's incredibly similar to the current district alignment in Metro ATL.  The current map is almost fair, although it really should have 2 Likely Dem and 4 Safe Dem seats in Metro Atlanta under a truly fair map Democratic gerrymander, so it seems.  No way anything like the current GA-06 survives 2021 redistricting.

FIFY

Yeah..most of these maps are just D gerrymanders here. A "fair" GA map would likely have 3 heavily packed (Due to political geography) AA districts, a Cobb County district that votes D, and a Gwinnett County district that votes D, counterbalanced by a much closer (Clinton +2 or so) GA-02. There's absolutely no way you can call a 6 D ATL map fair.

Georgia is essencially a Lean R state, how is a 6-8 map not fair?
I think what they're assuming is that in a 6 D ATL map, there would still be a D leaning Southeast Georgia seat (the current GA-02). Thus it would be a 7-7 map, and they find that unfair.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #213 on: May 15, 2020, 01:01:56 PM »



Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.
That's probably a better map. I assumed it was better to split Atlanta than have multiple Cobb splits or a Fulton/De Kalb split, but the COIs are probably better respected there. Cobb still looks weird though.

Now that I revisit this map, I realize it's incredibly similar to the current district alignment in Metro ATL.  The current map is almost fair, although it really should have 2 Likely Dem and 4 Safe Dem seats in Metro Atlanta under a truly fair map Democratic gerrymander, so it seems.  No way anything like the current GA-06 survives 2021 redistricting.

FIFY

Yeah..most of these maps are just D gerrymanders here. A "fair" GA map would likely have 3 heavily packed (Due to political geography) AA districts, a Cobb County district that votes D, and a Gwinnett County district that votes D, counterbalanced by a much closer (Clinton +2 or so) GA-02. There's absolutely no way you can call a 6 D ATL map fair.

Georgia is essencially a Lean R state, how is a 6-8 map not fair?
I think what they're assuming is that in a 6 D ATL map, there would still be a D leaning Southeast Georgia seat (the current GA-02). Thus it would be a 7-7 map, and they find that unfair.

Whether you see this as wrong or right of course is purely based on ones own opinion. If you are focusing solely on a single state, it might be better to correct for partisanship, if that is your goal. However, if you are doing a nationwide remap than one should probably observe those multi-county and lower-level county COIs, since geographic advantages (dems in parts of South, Southwest, and New England, GOP in Midwest and Florida) generally cancel each other out over all 435 seats.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #214 on: June 01, 2020, 01:47:38 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2020, 02:20:45 PM by Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cdacd24e-de7a-4262-a19f-d765fd2aac8c
This is a D gerrymander and is designed as such. It'd likely be a firm 9D-5R map for the decade, with the sole exception of GA-02, which could probably be swingy later on in the decade.

1: R+19, 69-30 Kemp, 68-30 Trump
2: D+3, 54-46 Abrams, 53-45 Clinton
3: D+5, 58-42 Abrams, 55-43 Clinton
4: D+9, 65-34 Abrams, 60-37 Clinton
5: D+13, 66-34 Abrams, 63-35 Clinton
6: D+4, 63-36 Abrams, 58-37 Clinton
7: R+3, 56-43 Abrams, 51-44 Clinton
8: R+14, 64-36 Kemp, 63-35 Trump
9: R+29, 76-23 Kemp, 75-22 Trump
10: D+6, 59-40 Abrams, 56-42 Clinton
11: R+30, 75-24 Kemp, 75-21 Trump
12: D+7, 59-40 Abrams, 57-40 Clinton
13: D+1, 59-40 Abrams, 53-43 Clinton
14: R+26, 74-25 Kemp, 74-23 Trump
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #215 on: June 02, 2020, 02:10:58 PM »



Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.
That's probably a better map. I assumed it was better to split Atlanta than have multiple Cobb splits or a Fulton/De Kalb split, but the COIs are probably better respected there. Cobb still looks weird though.

Now that I revisit this map, I realize it's incredibly similar to the current district alignment in Metro ATL.  The current map is almost fair, although it really should have 2 Likely Dem and 4 Safe Dem seats in Metro Atlanta under a truly fair map Democratic gerrymander, so it seems.  No way anything like the current GA-06 survives 2021 redistricting.

FIFY

Yeah..most of these maps are just D gerrymanders here. A "fair" GA map would likely have 3 heavily packed (Due to political geography) AA districts, a Cobb County district that votes D, and a Gwinnett County district that votes D, counterbalanced by a much closer (Clinton +2 or so) GA-02. There's absolutely no way you can call a 6 D ATL map fair.

Georgia is essencially a Lean R state, how is a 6-8 map not fair?

Political geography and the self packing of GA Dems in the Atlanta metro means that a fair map would have 5 D seats in the ATL area (3 ATL, 2 suburbs) and 1 marginal Trump seat that could go either way in South Georgia. 5-1-8.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #216 on: June 03, 2020, 02:43:52 AM »



Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.
That's probably a better map. I assumed it was better to split Atlanta than have multiple Cobb splits or a Fulton/De Kalb split, but the COIs are probably better respected there. Cobb still looks weird though.

Now that I revisit this map, I realize it's incredibly similar to the current district alignment in Metro ATL.  The current map is almost fair, although it really should have 2 Likely Dem and 4 Safe Dem seats in Metro Atlanta under a truly fair map Democratic gerrymander, so it seems.  No way anything like the current GA-06 survives 2021 redistricting.

FIFY

Yeah..most of these maps are just D gerrymanders here. A "fair" GA map would likely have 3 heavily packed (Due to political geography) AA districts, a Cobb County district that votes D, and a Gwinnett County district that votes D, counterbalanced by a much closer (Clinton +2 or so) GA-02. There's absolutely no way you can call a 6 D ATL map fair.

Georgia is essencially a Lean R state, how is a 6-8 map not fair?

Political geography and the self packing of GA Dems in the Atlanta metro means that a fair map would have 5 D seats in the ATL area (3 ATL, 2 suburbs) and 1 marginal Trump seat that could go either way in South Georgia. 5-1-8.
so realistically 4 dem seats in Atl.  Why draw 2 light blue suburban seats when you can create 1 solidly blue seat?
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« Reply #217 on: June 03, 2020, 09:54:31 AM »


Political geography and the self packing of GA Dems in the Atlanta metro means that a fair map would have 5 D seats in the ATL area (3 ATL, 2 suburbs) and 1 marginal Trump seat that could go either way in South Georgia. 5-1-8.

After drawing a map myself, while I still defend 6-8 would be perfectly fair; my fair map (even if certainly somewhat flawed) ended up as 5-7-2; functionally equivalent to 6-8 (although with trends you could argue it is 6-7-1 so it could be viewed as a very mild Dem gerrymander)



https://davesredistricting.org/join/848d7399-01fe-47c9-869e-0f6ca7162326

GA-01: Trump+15, R+9
GA-02: Clinton+6, D+2 (49% black)
GA-03: Trump+35, R+20
GA-04: Clinton+73, D+29 (56% black)
GA-05: Clinton+59, D+26 (55% black)
GA-06: Clinton+2, R+4
GA-07: Clinton+14, D+2 (34% white, 31% black, 23% hispanic, 13% Asian)
GA-08: Trump+28, R+14
GA-09: Trump+49, R+27
GA-10: Trump+28, R+14
GA-11: Trump+35, R+23
GA-12: Trump+3, R+3
GA-13: Clinton+27, D+11
GA-14: Trump+59, R+31

The main difference with your proposal is that the fair map actually would keep one of the Southern Georgia seats as safe (although tbf Clinton+6 is not that safe and it is not impossible for the seat to flip), and create a 2nd swing seat in Southern Georgia.
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« Reply #218 on: June 10, 2020, 11:43:23 PM »

Here's my take on a particularly evil/probably illegal 10-4 gerrymander.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/051f75df-cfe6-4a2c-b1bb-659a1e5c5da9




GA-01: Trump 56-41 (Buddy Carter)
GA-02: Clinton 60-38, 54% BVAP (Sanford Bishop)
GA-03: Trump 63-34 (Drew Ferguson)
GA-04: Clinton 77-23, 57% BVAP (David Scott)
GA-05: Clinton 94-5, 89% BVAP (John Lewis/Hank Johnson)
GA-06: Trump 57-38 (new R incumbent)
GA-07: Clinton 64-32, 52% WVAP, 22% BVAP, 18% HVAP (Lucy McBath)
GA-08: Trump 65-33 (Austin Scott)
GA-09: Trump 58-38 (new R incumbent to succeed Woodall)
GA-10: Trump 70-27 (new R incumbent to succeed Collins)
GA-11: Trump 57-39 (Barry Loudermilk)
GA-12: Trump 59-39 (Rick Allen)
GA-13: Trump 60-38 (Jody Hice)
GA-14: Trump 76-21 (new R incumbent to succeed Tom Graves)

I'm sure I could have been more efficient but this is prob the max ATL black pack one could do.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #219 on: June 11, 2020, 01:20:50 AM »

If you are drawing a 10-4 and making ga 2nd ugly just draw it into clayton county.
This way you can shore up the rest of atlanta.
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« Reply #220 on: June 11, 2020, 02:16:26 AM »

I wanted to use up the Black Belt and keep the 2nd out of Atlanta though.
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« Reply #221 on: June 11, 2020, 05:58:50 AM »

For fun, here is how a Dem gerrymander could look like if it did not respect the VRA. I targeted the districts to be somewhere around Clinton+7 and Abrams+10 or more.

This map is a 9D-3R-1S map, with 9 Safe D districts (or about as safe as Clinton+7 can get); 3 safe R districts (all over 70% Trump) and 1 pure tossup district that Trump won by 0.3% and Abrams won by literally 0.1%:



GA-01: Trump+43, Kemp+45, R+21
GA-02: Trump+0.3, Abrams+0.1, EVEN (47% black, 45% white)
GA-03: Clinton+7, Abrams+15, D+1 (47% white, 44% black)
GA-04: Clinton+10, Abrams+14, D+3 (50% white, 40% black)
GA-05: Clinton+7, Abrams+12, R+4 (65% white, 16% black)
GA-06: Clinton+6, Abrams+12, R+3 (42% white, 24% hispanic, 20% black, 16% asian)
GA-07: Clinton+5, Abrams+13, EVEN (42% white, 39% black, 10% hispanic)
GA-08: Clinton+8, Abrams+10, D+3 (48% black, 46% white)
GA-09: Trump+56, Kemp+55, R+31
GA-10: Clinton+7, Abrams+10, D+2 (49% white, 42% black)
GA-11: Clinton+6, Abrams+13, R+1 (48% white, 35% black, 13% hispanic)
GA-12: Clinton+8, Abrams+10, D+3 (49% white, 43% black, 6% hispanic)
GA-13: Clinton+10, Abrams+13, D+4 (46% black, 43% white)
GA-14: Trump+57, Kemp+59, R+30

https://davesredistricting.org/join/06054b15-249d-4437-811c-964f1a4b53d0

Ironically despite not respecting the VRA this map would probably elect just as many black representatives, if not more than the current map Tongue (the 8th and the 13th at least, plus the 2nd if that is held by a Dem; and I assume one of the other Dem districts would also elect a black representative)
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andjey
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« Reply #222 on: June 14, 2020, 08:08:09 AM »

I think this is pretty fair Georgia map:



Atlanta Metro area:



District 1
Population: 60% white, 30% black
Governor 2018: 68% - 32% Kemp
President 2016: 66% - 32% Trump
PVI: R+17.5
Rating: Safe R
Representative: Austin Scott (R) (red. GA-08)


District 2
Population: 53% white, 40% black
Governor 2018: 56% - 44 Abrams
President 2016: 55% - 43% Clinton
PVI: D+6
Rating: Likely D
Representative: Sanford Bishop (D)


District 3
Population: 70% white, 22% black
Governor 2018: 69% - 30% Kemp
President 2016: 68% - 28% Trump
PVI: R+22
Rating: Safe R
Representative: Drew Ferguson (R)

District 4
Population: white 80%, hispanic 12%, black 7%
Governor 2018: 79% - 21% Kemp
President 2016: 77% - 20% Trump
PVI: R+29
Rating: Safe R
Representative: Margorie Greene (R)

District 5
Population: white 73%, hispanic 15%, black 7%
Governor 2018: 72% - 26% Kemp
President 2016: 73% - 23% Trump
PVI: R+30
Rating: Safe R
Representative: Barry Loudermilk (R) (red. GA-11)


District 6
Population: white 65%, hispanic 15%, asian 14%
Governor 2018: 54% - 44% Kemp
President 2016: 56% - 40% Trump
PVI: R+15
Rating: Lean R
Representative: someone R legislator, D in major wave

District 7
Population: black 55%, white 33%, hispanic 11%
Governor 2018: 68% - 31% Abrams
President 2016: 63% - 34% Clinton
PVI: D+12
Rating: Safe D
Representative: David Scott (D) (red. GA-13)

District 8
Population: black 59%, white 33%
Governor 2018: 68% - 31% Abrams
President 2016: 64% - 34% Clinton
PVI: D+13
Rating: Safe D
Representative: Hank Johnson (D) (red. GA-04)

District 9
Population: black 61%, white 25%
Governor 2018: 80% - 20% Abrams
President 2016: 76% - 21% Clinton
PVI: D+25
Rating: Safe D
Representative: John Lewis (D) (red. GA-05)

District 10
Population: white 54%, black 24%, hispanic 12%
Governor 2018: 71% - 28% Abrams
President 2016: 67% - 28% Clinton
PVI: D+13
Rating: Safe D
Representative: Lucy McBath (D) (red. GA-06)

District 11
Population: black 40%, 28% white, 22% hispanic
Governor 2018: 68% - 31% Abrams
President 2016: 63% - 34% Clinton
PVI: D+11
Rating: Safe D
Representative: Carolyn Bordeaux (D) (red. GA-07)


District 12
Population: white 76%, black 15%
Governor 2018: 75% - 25% Kemp
President 2016: 73% - 24% Trump
PVI: R+27
Rating: Safe R
Representative: Jody Hice (R) def. Matt Gurtler/Andrew Clyde (R). (red. GA-09, GA-10)

District 13
Population: white 67%, black 25%
Governor 2018: 68% - 32% Kemp
President 2016: 66% - 31% Trump
PVI: R+18
Rating: Safe R
Representative: Rick Allen (R) def. Buddy Carter (R) (red. GA-12, GA-01)


District 14
Population: black 47%, white 44%
Governor 2018: 63% - 36% Abrams
President 2016: 61% - 37% Clinton
PVI: D+11
Rating: Safe D
Representative: some D legislator or, maybe, John Barrow


So, 7-7 delegation. And one swing district (GA-06) in the future
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
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« Reply #223 on: June 14, 2020, 08:49:03 AM »

Losing the 2018 gubernatorial race here hurts. Republicans are going to draw out McBath and Bourdeaux by spiraling them out to north Georgia and will give Bishop a Trump/Kemp seat. Watch.

On the bright side, they are on borrowed time, so they can enjoy their last turn at the maps while they can.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #224 on: June 14, 2020, 01:18:53 PM »

Here's an attempt at a Republican map following the methodology of the Texas Republican Party c. 2004 - i.e. to ensure that no white Democrat can be elected.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7059ff9a-a84b-4391-bad8-4f50422e6c65




It concedes four districts in Atlanta, but makes sure they're all comfortably black-majority by CVAP (GA-6 is only black-plurality by CVAP, but the black population is more than twice as large as any other racial group so it's still secure.)

GA-2 is also drawn as a black-majority district, since if you eliminate a black district downstate you get no credit for creating an extra one in Atlanta, and because if you reckon the Supreme Court is going to back you up you can always eliminate that in a mid-decade redistricting. All other districts retain approximately their present orientations and Clinton didn't break 41% in any of them.
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