Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

So now the question is:

1: Can GA-02 be dismantled? Can it be brought to Atlanta or other black areas of the state?
2: How many black majority districts are needed in the Atlanta area?

Once you answer those 2 questions you can start drawing. The VRA essentially means Georgia will have a court designed map in practice as 11-3 is impossible.

You can very easily draw 2 white dem seats in Atlanta, it's just that there's literally no reason the GOP would possibly draw them.

[Former President tack50]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

So now the question is:

1: Can GA-02 be dismantled? Can it be brought to Atlanta or other black areas of the state?
2: How many black majority districts are needed in the Atlanta area?

Once you answer those 2 questions you can start drawing. The VRA essentially means Georgia will have a court designed map in practice as 11-3 is impossible.

You can very easily draw 2 white dem seats in Atlanta, it's just that there's literally no reason the GOP would possibly draw them.

Wouldn't such districts be illegal as they would require packing the black voters?

Like if you have a white Dem district in Atlanta that means the remaining black seats will have to be 60%+ black; which would be struck down by courts?

So I guess while easily possible, not only has the GOP no reason to draw them but also they would be struck down anyways

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

So now the question is:

1: Can GA-02 be dismantled? Can it be brought to Atlanta or other black areas of the state?
2: How many black majority districts are needed in the Atlanta area?

Once you answer those 2 questions you can start drawing. The VRA essentially means Georgia will have a court designed map in practice as 11-3 is impossible.

You can very easily draw 2 white dem seats in Atlanta, it's just that there's literally no reason the GOP would possibly draw them.

Wouldn't such districts be illegal as they would require packing the black voters?

Like if you have a white Dem district in Atlanta that means the remaining black seats will have to be 60%+ black; which would be struck down by courts?

So I guess while easily possible, not only has the GOP no reason to draw them but also they would be struck down anyways

All 3 current Atlanta districts are 58-60% black, for reference. And the courts haven't complained.

[Tintrlvr]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

So now the question is:

1: Can GA-02 be dismantled? Can it be brought to Atlanta or other black areas of the state?
2: How many black majority districts are needed in the Atlanta area?

Once you answer those 2 questions you can start drawing. The VRA essencially means Georgia will have a court designed map in practice as 11-3 is impossible.

My map above has a 63% white district in the Atlanta metro that even voted for Obama in 2008, would be solid D now. There’s also another plurality white diverse district (no minority group predominates) that voted McCain but has moved strongly to Clinton.

[Sol]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

So now the question is:

1: Can GA-02 be dismantled? Can it be brought to Atlanta or other black areas of the state?
2: How many black majority districts are needed in the Atlanta area?

Once you answer those 2 questions you can start drawing. The VRA essentially means Georgia will have a court designed map in practice as 11-3 is impossible.

You can very easily draw 2 white dem seats in Atlanta, it's just that there's literally no reason the GOP would possibly draw them.

Wouldn't such districts be illegal as they would require packing the black voters?

Like if you have a white Dem district in Atlanta that means the remaining black seats will have to be 60%+ black; which would be struck down by courts?

So I guess while easily possible, not only has the GOP no reason to draw them but also they would be struck down anyways

Atlanta is an extremely black city; South Fulton has almost 100,000 people and is around 90% black, for example. Heavily black districts are the natural outcome if you draw compact black-majority districts in this part of Georgia. 

[Del Tachi]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff94e92e-dccf-4c8f-a4da-d883ec0e9b2f

Here's a map of five Safe/Likely D seats all based in Atlanta that include 3 VRA Black districts, a majority-White Dem district (59% Obama, 61% White), and a Maj-Min district based in Gwinnett.

COI's not very intact though.

[Brittain33]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

https://davesredistricting.org/join/22ba28a4-ad53-45e7-8546-7c8a5b8bf6d7

Here's a map of five Safe/Likely D seats all based in Atlanta that include 3 VRA Black districts, a majority-White Dem district (59% Obama, 61% White), and a Maj-Min district based in Gwinnett.

COI's not very intact though.

Can you check the URL? I’m getting a blank Georgia map.

[Del Tachi]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

https://davesredistricting.org/join/22ba28a4-ad53-45e7-8546-7c8a5b8bf6d7

Here's a map of five Safe/Likely D seats all based in Atlanta that include 3 VRA Black districts, a majority-White Dem district (59% Obama, 61% White), and a Maj-Min district based in Gwinnett.

COI's not very intact though.

Can you check the URL? I’m getting a blank Georgia map.

Hmmm....might be server issues

[Former President tack50]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff94e92e-dccf-4c8f-a4da-d883ec0e9b2f

Here's a map of five Safe/Likely D seats all based in Atlanta that include 3 VRA Black districts, a majority-White Dem district (59% Obama, 61% White), and a Maj-Min district based in Gwinnett.

COI's not very intact though.

I guess that would be how a fair map would look like? (Plus GA-02 outside Atlanta in terms of Dem seats)

[Del Tachi]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff94e92e-dccf-4c8f-a4da-d883ec0e9b2f

Here's a map of five Safe/Likely D seats all based in Atlanta that include 3 VRA Black districts, a majority-White Dem district (59% Obama, 61% White), and a Maj-Min district based in Gwinnett.

COI's not very intact though.

I guess that would be how a fair map would look like? (Plus GA-02 outside Atlanta in terms of Dem seats)

A "fair" map is probably 9-5 GOP with 4 Black districts (3 in Atlanta, 1 in SWGA) and the Gwinnett Maj-Min district.  I can't see a White Atlanta district being created.    For proportionality I think you need two Republican-leaning districts based in the North ATL suburbs, and a majority-White Dem seat in Atlanta pretty much precludes this.  While you can draw a majority-White Dem seat in Atlanta, you have to pick up a lot of currently Republican suburbs or majority-Black urban precincts to get it up to population - so White, liberal Atlantans aren't really numerous enough to demand their own district just yet.  The current GA-06 is probably shifted north and sheds some of its more Democratic precincts to the Maj-Min districts in ATL/Gwinnett.

I think a 10-4 has too much dummymander potential from having to crack fast-growing Atlanta suburbs too much, so the GA-GOP would do best to avoid that.  And, as has been discussed to death in this thread, a Black pack in SWGA shores up South Georgia and preempts a VRA challenge.   

[Sol]

A fair Georgia map would probably also not split Atlanta, which would be necessary to have White-majority D district.

[Idaho Conservative]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff94e92e-dccf-4c8f-a4da-d883ec0e9b2f

Here's a map of five Safe/Likely D seats all based in Atlanta that include 3 VRA Black districts, a majority-White Dem district (59% Obama, 61% White), and a Maj-Min district based in Gwinnett.

COI's not very intact though.

I guess that would be how a fair map would look like? (Plus GA-02 outside Atlanta in terms of Dem seats)

A "fair" map is probably 9-5 GOP with 4 Black districts (3 in Atlanta, 1 in SWGA) and the Gwinnett Maj-Min district.  I can't see a White Atlanta district being created.    For proportionality I think you need two Republican-leaning districts based in the North ATL suburbs, and a majority-White Dem seat in Atlanta pretty much precludes this.  While you can draw a majority-White Dem seat in Atlanta, you have to pick up a lot of currently Republican suburbs or majority-Black urban precincts to get it up to population - so White, liberal Atlantans aren't really numerous enough to demand their own district just yet.  The current GA-06 is probably shifted north and sheds some of its more Democratic precincts to the Maj-Min districts in ATL/Gwinnett.

I think a 10-4 has too much dummymander potential from having to crack fast-growing Atlanta suburbs too much, so the GA-GOP would do best to avoid that.  And, as has been discussed to death in this thread, a Black pack in SWGA shores up South Georgia and preempts a VRA challenge.   

A 10-4 map wouldn't be a dummymander as long as all 4 dem seats are in Atlanta.  If the courts struck down the cracking of GA-2, at worst you get a 9-5, which they have now.

[OBD]

It's a foregone conclusion that the GOP packs the 6th and creates 4 solidly Democratic districts in Atlanta, while also cracking the remaining suburban territory among the northern seats. Really, the only points of contention are how messy the new Atlanta districts get, and the SWGA AA seat. Personally, I think splitting it is a bad bet for the GOP, as they could get taken to court for splitting the 'African-American community of interest' that the 2nd district serves. While they may create another AA/minority district in Cobb and Gwinnett, it doesn't change the fact that they're splitting up AA communities in the Southwest that logically should be in the same district. What they could do is make the 2nd more competitive, while keeping it a VRA district.

[Del Tachi]

It's a foregone conclusion that the GOP packs the 6th and creates 4 solidly Democratic districts in Atlanta, while also cracking the remaining suburban territory among the northern seats. Really, the only points of contention are how messy the new Atlanta districts get, and the SWGA AA seat. Personally, I think splitting it is a bad bet for the GOP, as they could get taken to court for splitting the 'African-American community of interest' that the 2nd district serves. While they may create another AA/minority district in Cobb and Gwinnett, it doesn't change the fact that they're splitting up AA communities in the Southwest that logically should be in the same district. What they could do is make the 2nd more competitive, while keeping it a VRA district.

Exactly, a "good" map for the GOP starts as 9-5 but then moves to 10-4 by decade's end thanks to demographic turnover in SWGA.

[Water Hazard]

Made this 11-3 a while ago using a 2020 population estimates file:

https://imgur.com/a/jJVtETF
https://imgur.com/a/PWg4cXt (ATL close-up)

2016 Results:

1: Trump +15.4
2: Trump +19.1
3: Trump +28.3
4: Clinton +61.8
5: Clinton +74.3
6: Trump +24.0
7: Trump +24.3
8: Trump +16.6
9: Trump +27.0
10: Trump +24.5
11: Trump +23.3
12: Trump +15.8
13: Clinton +62.2
14: Trump +33.9

I really don't see any of these Trump districts being vulnerable. The four closest ones are all in southern GA and trending R. Of course, this assumes unpacking Bishop's district is acceptable. 4 and 5 are low 50s BVAP, while 13 is in the upper 50s- if that ends up being too high, I'm sure you could shuffle a few precincts around and remedy it fairly easily.

I think the obstacles to 11-3 (or 10-4, if the current 2nd must be maintained) next decade are political considerations (incumbent homes and territory preferences, etc.) and VRA challenges, not mathematical infeasibility or "dummymander potential." That's not to say a 4th ATL D seat isn't possible if the legislature would rather satisfy other priorities, but from a partisan standpoint I don't see much of a need for any D districts beyond the VRA-mandated ones.

[Idaho Conservative]

Made this 11-3 a while ago using a 2020 population estimates file:

https://imgur.com/a/jJVtETF
https://imgur.com/a/PWg4cXt (ATL close-up)

2016 Results:

1: Trump +15.4
2: Trump +19.1
3: Trump +28.3
4: Clinton +61.8
5: Clinton +74.3
6: Trump +24.0
7: Trump +24.3
8: Trump +16.6
9: Trump +27.0
10: Trump +24.5
11: Trump +23.3
12: Trump +15.8
13: Clinton +62.2
14: Trump +33.9

I really don't see any of these Trump districts being vulnerable. The four closest ones are all in southern GA and trending R. Of course, this assumes unpacking Bishop's district is acceptable. 4 and 5 are low 50s BVAP, while 13 is in the upper 50s- if that ends up being too high, I'm sure you could shuffle a few precincts around and remedy it fairly easily.

I think the obstacles to 11-3 (or 10-4, if the current 2nd must be maintained) next decade are political considerations (incumbent homes and territory preferences, etc.) and VRA challenges, not mathematical infeasibility or "dummymander potential." That's not to say a 4th ATL D seat isn't possible if the legislature would rather satisfy other priorities, but from a partisan standpoint I don't see much of a need for any D districts beyond the VRA-mandated ones.

Wow nice map.  I didn't think an 11-3 could be done with that safe of seats.  However, I tend not to favor the most aggressive map that can be drawn and instead opt for a map with the most titanium r seats as possible when it comes to growing sunbelt states.  The gop can be more aggressive in the midwest.  I am a bit concerned about the GA-7 having so much minority areas.  I bet Kemp won it by less than 20.  While your 6th and 7th would likely stay red, there's some risk for the later part of the decade.  I'd draw downstate like you did, then draw a 4th dem pack in northern Atlanta of a bunch of diverse and/or Romney/Clinton precincts.  With 4 dem packs in Atlanta, you can make the Atlanta suburban seats 5-10 points redder, and push them to be even more exurban and rural. 

[Brittain33]

Two districts linking parts of Fulton County to Tennessee is... something.

[Idaho Conservative]

Two districts linking parts of Fulton County to Tennessee is... something.

a Trump+20 suburban/rural mix is safer than a Trump+20 district that's all suburban, due to trends.

[Brittain33]

Two districts linking parts of Fulton County to Tennessee is... something.

a Trump+20 suburban/rural mix is safer than a Trump+20 district that's all suburban, due to trends.

I get it, but it’s still imaginative.

[Idaho Conservative]

Two districts linking parts of Fulton County to Tennessee is... something.

a Trump+20 suburban/rural mix is safer than a Trump+20 district that's all suburban, due to trends.

I get it, but it’s still imaginative.

nah, if GA GOP is smart they'll do it.  But with 4 Dem Atlanta seats.

[Adam Griffin]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?)

Using 2010 figures (which I hate to do, but I wanted easy access to new election data), drawing 2 3 majority-white VAP Dem (or Dem-leaning) districts anchored around the metro is simple enough - even with 3 VRA districts adjoining them. I'm sure the lines could be tidied up a bit on subsequent revisions, but this is more proof of concept than anything else.

Not only that, but drawing a fourth majority-white VAP lean Dem district between Augusta and Savannah is fairly easily done as well.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/acc4198d-2ac6-4d68-98e4-46f28e4c138d

CD	White VAP	Black VAP	2016 Pres	2016 Sen	2012-16 Composite
1	56%	21%	Clinton +30	Barksdale +9	Democrat +15
2	56%	26%	Clinton +19	Barksdale +7	Democrat +10
3	36%	53%	Clinton +40	Barksdale +29	Democrat +34
4	39%	54%	Clinton +31	Barksdale +25	Democrat +28
5	39%	49%	Clinton +24	Barksdale +16	Democrat +20
6	55%	37%	Clinton +3	Isakson +7	Republican +1
--	--	--	--	--	--
8	56%	17%	Clinton +2	Isakson +15	Republican +11

Caveats:
1) CD 5 is 49% BVAP by 2010 standards. I wouldn't usually draw an ATL VRA district as plurality-black, but such a configuration should be majority-black VAP today.
2) CD 2 might actually be close to plurality-white by now, given the huge shifts in Gwinnett County.

[lfromnj]

Yeah I am pretty sure the only obstacle to 11-3 will be the VRA.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff94e92e-dccf-4c8f-a4da-d883ec0e9b2f

Here's a map of five Safe/Likely D seats all based in Atlanta that include 3 VRA Black districts, a majority-White Dem district (59% Obama, 61% White), and a Maj-Min district based in Gwinnett.

COI's not very intact though.

I guess that would be how a fair map would look like? (Plus GA-02 outside Atlanta in terms of Dem seats)

A "fair" map is probably 9-5 GOP with 4 Black districts (3 in Atlanta, 1 in SWGA) and the Gwinnett Maj-Min district.  I can't see a White Atlanta district being created.    For proportionality I think you need two Republican-leaning districts based in the North ATL suburbs, and a majority-White Dem seat in Atlanta pretty much precludes this.  While you can draw a majority-White Dem seat in Atlanta, you have to pick up a lot of currently Republican suburbs or majority-Black urban precincts to get it up to population - so White, liberal Atlantans aren't really numerous enough to demand their own district just yet.  The current GA-06 is probably shifted north and sheds some of its more Democratic precincts to the Maj-Min districts in ATL/Gwinnett.

I think a 10-4 has too much dummymander potential from having to crack fast-growing Atlanta suburbs too much, so the GA-GOP would do best to avoid that.  And, as has been discussed to death in this thread, a Black pack in SWGA shores up South Georgia and preempts a VRA challenge.   

A "fair" Georgia map at this point is 6-8 if not 7-7. One SW GA black seat, one majority minority Gwinnett seat, 3 black Atlanta seats, and 1 white liberal North Fulton/SW Cobb seat.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Anyway, now that 2018 population figures are in DRA, this is what I would consider a "fair" 6-8 GA map. Dens have the 3 black ATL seats, the Gwinnett seat, the VRA SW GA seat, and the white liberal north Fulton seat.

[Sol]

Anyway, now that 2018 population figures are in DRA, this is what I would consider a "fair" 6-8 GA map. Dens have the 3 black ATL seats, the Gwinnett seat, the VRA SW GA seat, and the white liberal north Fulton seat.

Nice map! A few nitpicks:

-Why not put all of Cherokee County in the Cyan district? Better to keep the Atlanta area together.
-Is it possible to avoid the tri-chop of Atlanta?
-If you give the eastern half of Spaulding to the teal district, and then send the grey district deeper into Columbia County, it better follows metro areas and communities.