IA-Gov: Tossup

[PBrunsel]

Here is the low down on the primaries. Monday both parties are having state wide caucuses where the candidates will be introduced in full.

Governor Vilsack has endorsed every Democrat running except the fringe ones from the far left (Fallon). Culver, Blouin, and Judge all have the backing of the popular Governor. It is my guess that Vilsack wants Blouin to be the nominee because he does not like Culver that much. Culver’s father, former Senator John Culver, was quite boisterous in his criticism of Vilsack while he was Mayor of Mount Pleasant. This has spilled over into Vilsack’s intimidation by the popular Secretary of State Culver. If Vilsack can throw his weight around enough, Blouin will emerge as the Democratic nominee. It seems like the Iowa Democratic Party wants Culver and the Governor wants Blouin.

It’s much different for the Republicans; Bob Vander Platts is a horrible candidate. He was out charmed by the Republican version of Al Gore, Doug Gross, in 2002. Gross was a hog confinement lobbyist, and he defeated Vander Platts in anti-hob confinement Iowa. So you can live in La-La Land and say Vander Platts is a “strong candidate” but he isn’t. Nussle’s greatest weakness will come from how he has proven himself a weaker leader when it comes to the budget than anyone expected. I expect the Democrats to play the game Vander Platts has and attempt to do and attempt to state that fiscal irresponsibility in Washington, D.C., translates to fiscal irresponsibility in Des Moines.

The big issue is how well Tom Vilsack will use his popularity in the campaign. Having a Governor with 54-57% approval ratings will help the Democrats immensely. Vilsack has been able to get the votes usual Republican farmers and factory workers. For a Democrat to do well amongst farmers in Iowa is incredible. It will be interesting to see how well Vilsack is at transmitting his popularity to Democratic votes in November.

[PBrunsel]

Why isn't Vilsack running for reelection?

Same old "I want to spend time with my family" thing.

He really wants to be nationally known. He's running for President, if not in 2008 it will be 2012. He also is angling for the spot of Vice-President or Secretary of Agriculture or the Treasury.