Swayable National: Biden 30, Warren 18, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 7, Harris 5
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  2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Swayable National: Biden 30, Warren 18, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 7, Harris 5
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Author Topic: Swayable National: Biden 30, Warren 18, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 7, Harris 5  (Read 1060 times)
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« on: November 22, 2019, 03:26:38 AM »

I've never heard of the pollster. LV and RV numbers differ.

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2019, 09:03:13 AM »

Another poll showing corrupted Biden in the lead
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Pollster
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« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2019, 09:38:16 AM »

This poll suggests that there will be a disparity between registered voters and likely voter screens, which I'm sure the media will not cover or care about and will present to viewers/readers as "sudden shifts in the race!"
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2019, 11:05:07 AM »

I prefer the RV numbers. This seems like a weird poll though.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2019, 04:52:39 PM »

This poll suggests that there will be a disparity between registered voters and likely voter screens, which I'm sure the media will not cover or care about and will present to viewers/readers as "sudden shifts in the race!"

I mean, obviously though. Turnout in even high-profile, competitive primaries is terrible, so of course when only 30% of registered voters vote, you'll have a big difference between RV and LV results.

It's surprising that they show Sanders doing better with RVs than LVs, though. In 2016, it was the opposite (thus his stronger showings in caucus states).
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2019, 07:35:15 PM »

This poll suggests that there will be a disparity between registered voters and likely voter screens, which I'm sure the media will not cover or care about and will present to viewers/readers as "sudden shifts in the race!"

I mean, obviously though. Turnout in even high-profile, competitive primaries is terrible, so of course when only 30% of registered voters vote, you'll have a big difference between RV and LV results.

It's surprising that they show Sanders doing better with RVs than LVs, though. In 2016, it was the opposite (thus his stronger showings in caucus states).

Sanders' 2016 voters are younger and less tuned in to the political apparatus right now. It makes sense.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2019, 10:08:59 PM »

538 seems to have acquired their numbers for all candidates down to 1%. Just scroll down to Nov. 20, 2019 (or search for "Swayable") and it will show the whole list of polls, among both adults and likely voters. Normally 538 includes those who polled at zero percent, so it's odd that they are not listed here. It would make more sense with a open-ended question (which has a potential for infinite candidates at zero), but they make it explicit in their methodology section that the candidates were read from a list:

Quote
Each respondent was presented with a randomized list of all Democratic and Republican candidates from which to make selections.
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