WI-Marquette: Trump in the lead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is corrupted like Hilary, and Trump says he will uncover the Hunter Bideb story should Biden be nominee at his impeachment trial in the Senate

[MT Treasurer]

I wonder why no one has mentioned that "Trump won Wisconsin with fewer votes than Romney" (or some variation of that like "Trump won PA and MI, but Clinton lost WI"). It’s usually such a popular (absurdly simplistic) talking point to explain away obvious trends/shifts in the state's voting patterns which favor Republicans and fly in the face of the theory that 2016 was a "fluke."

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I wonder why no one has mentioned that "Trump won Wisconsin with fewer votes than Romney" (or some variation of that like "Trump won PA and MI, but Clinton lost WI"). It’s usually such a popular (absurdly simplistic) talking point to explain away obvious trends/shifts in the state's voting patterns which favor Republicans and fly in the face of the theory that 2016 was a "fluke."

Exit polls showed more Trump voters in Wisconsin who thought that he was unfit and unqualified for the job than any other state. The easiest interpretation of this is that they hated Clinton more. Today we continue to see Trump way underwater on approvals, but the actual election polls tight. This demands some sort of explanation. I can throw a few out there:

1. For many voters in WI the Trump ideology is attractive even if Trump is repulsive, and they're willing to put up with keeping him in office in the hope that we'll make China play fair on trade and continue the economic growth of the past 10 years.

2. These voters simply hate Democrats, and aren't willing to vote for one (for president, at least) under any circumstances.

3. Gary Johnson voters are coming home.

I don't know. It belies explanation. Either the approvals are wonky, or the election polling is wonky.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI is one of those states that have a voucher system, like R states like FL for its public schools. That's why Walker won, so many times. Pa, MI, IL and MN has public funding for schools. In, OH as well as WI uses vouchers

[Annatar]

Interesting to look at the candidates by favourability in this poll, they even asked about Obama and Romney

Trump 46/50
Biden 39/48
Warren 29/46
Sanders 36/54

Obama 54/41
Romney 28/44

The numbers are worse for Biden than I thought they would be, the numbers are about as bad for Sanders and Warren as expected. Not surprisingly Obama is above water. 

Harry Enten has said this sample is more favourable for Trump than the previous poll but the sample in their October poll was 31R/29D/30I or a R+2 sample, the sample in their current poll is 28R/28D/40I so its 2% less Republican and in all other areas like education, age and income its identical.

[lfromnj]

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/10/31/mlsp50release/
Marquette final poll
Fyi the final poll. Literally nailed it

[Epaminondas]

This is a wonderful poll.

Odds are it's ridiculously off, but at least we're done with the Dem+10 nonsense while would only deflate participation à la 2016.

It's going to be tight. Only question is whether the outcome is Beshear & Edwards or Rick Scott.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll within margin of error.. Who said we are done with a wave election? Impeachment isnt popular, but Citizens United isnt either, we should tif the system with dirty money and Rs and Alito are against it

[ElectionsGuy]

Interesting to look at the candidates by favourability in this poll, they even asked about Obama and Romney

Trump 46/50
Biden 39/48
Warren 29/46
Sanders 36/54

Obama 54/41
Romney 28/44

The numbers are worse for Biden than I thought they would be, the numbers are about as bad for Sanders and Warren as expected. Not surprisingly Obama is above water. 

Harry Enten has said this sample is more favourable for Trump than the previous poll but the sample in their October poll was 31R/29D/30I or a R+2 sample, the sample in their current poll is 28R/28D/40I so its 2% less Republican and in all other areas like education, age and income its identical.

These numbers confirm that yes, 2016 was not an aberration and this is the same state that would vote for Obama over Romney again today.

[Cinemark]

Interesting to look at the candidates by favourability in this poll, they even asked about Obama and Romney

Trump 46/50
Biden 39/48
Warren 29/46
Sanders 36/54

Obama 54/41
Romney 28/44

The numbers are worse for Biden than I thought they would be, the numbers are about as bad for Sanders and Warren as expected. Not surprisingly Obama is above water. 

Harry Enten has said this sample is more favourable for Trump than the previous poll but the sample in their October poll was 31R/29D/30I or a R+2 sample, the sample in their current poll is 28R/28D/40I so its 2% less Republican and in all other areas like education, age and income its identical.

I think Enten meant that the democrats in the sample were more favorable to Trump, i.e, that impeachment fell by about ten points amongst democrats even though there are no signs of that nationally(ignoring the Emerson poll).

Still, those favorbility ratings are horrific for everyone. Biden's numbers will probably recover a smidge once he wins the nomination and democrats get behind him. But Sander's numbers are probably worse than Hillary's were, and Warren's will be too once her name I.D is 100%.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

If Trump, Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Romney are all unpopular, then who the hell do the voters want exactly?

[lfromnj]

If Trump, Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Romney are all unpopular, then who the hell do the voters want exactly?

Baldwin and Ron Johnson of course

Expecting anything reasonable or policy specific from the most idiotic possible swing voters is lol tier.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Trump, Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Romney are all unpopular, then who the hell do the voters want exactly?

Baldwin and Ron Johnson of course

Expecting anything reasonable or policy specific from the most idiotic possible swing voters is lol tier.

This is the state whose Republican Party threw out Bob LaFollette in favor of Joe McCarthy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

More and more, I am disregarding this poll, Trump isnt gonna be reelected, Trump won Wiz, PA and MI with the help of Gary Johnson.  There is no 3rd party that will give Trump these three states like last time

[Annatar]

If Trump, Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Romney are all unpopular, then who the hell do the voters want exactly?

Obama clearly, Obama is who voters in WI like.

I thought it might be interesting to compare Romney's numbers in their Jan 2012 poll to where the dems are, we are in a similar point in the cycle, Romney's fav/unfav in their Jan 2012 poll was 30/42, so worse then were Biden is but better than Sanders or Warren.

Also, Obama's numbers in this poll, 54/41 are basically the same as the last pre 2016 election poll Marquette did where he was at 54/43 among RV's.

In that last poll, Clinton net fav was -8, 44/52, similar to Biden's net fav today and Trump's were -29, 33/62.