WI-Marquette: Trump in the lead

[President Johnson]

These numbers between Democratic candidates make no sense at all. But Wisconsin will be competitive and the most likely out of the three Rust Belt states Trump narrowly won in 2016 to remain in his column. Democrats need to fight for it, even though they could counter with Arizona if the election is super close.

[The Other Castro]

Do people really think Biden fell nine points against Trump in one month? Wisconsin is going to be close, as has been obvious for a while.

[Mr. Illini]

I know there’s a long way to go but I’m persistently nervous

[2016]

Hear me now, quote me later, if Wisconsin has Trump leading, then Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania are not that different. This poll may be an outlier and has some weird numbers, but Wisconsin is not an outlier in that group of states.

Yeah. I know it won't happen but if Trump won Wisconsin by 14, It would be a complete and total WIPEOUT.

The Key State in the Midwest I think is Ohio. If Trump wins the Buckeye State by a similar margin compared to 2016 he'll likely win either WI or MI.

[Cinemark]

Probably an odd sample. Shame we have to wait a month to find out.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

With registered voters? Doesn't the GOP usually do better with likely voters? If so, considering I agree with the take that AZ is Tilt R, it looks like Trump has the EC advantage going into 2020.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Of the big three rust belt states this has been Trump’s best polling one so can we ease up on the “if he wins Wisconsin he wins Michigan and Pennsylvania” takes

[Cinemark]

Looking at the crosstabs, a substantial amount of Democrats stopped supporting impeachment and the potential dem nominee from October to November. Would explain the shift. Definitely seems like an outlier.

[LiberalDem19]

Hear me now, quote me later, if Wisconsin has Trump leading, then Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania are not that different. This poll may be an outlier and has some weird numbers, but Wisconsin is not an outlier in that group of states.

Latest CIVIQS data has Trump
-17 in Minnesota
-10 in Michigan
-7 in Pennsylvania
-2 in Wisconsin

I could see Wisconsin voting further to the right of the other three states, even in comparison to 2016. Remember that the Twin Cities is 55% of Minnesota and then Rochester/Duluth are another 10% whereas Milwaukee/Madison combined are 48%. And the Milwaukee suburbs, regardless of trend, are still far more Republican than Minneapolis/St. Paul, Detroit, and Philadelphia

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Is it really that unrealistic that a small segment of the electorate has stopped supporting Biden? I have switched from Biden to Buttigieg in the last two months and my opinion of Biden is no longer as enthusiastic as it once was now that he has been implicated.

This poll is probably overstating 45 but not by that much.

[Frenchrepublican]

So Trump is leading by a healthy margin in WI but he is losing GA ?

Are we already in 2028 ?

[Cinemark]

So Trump is leading by a healthy margin in WI but he is losing GA ?

Are we already in 2028 ?

Virginia is proof states can have very rapid transitions. But I think both states are close and polls a year away aren't all that useful. Hillary was up 15 points in WI in November of 2015 according to Marquette after all. 

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah, Trump's going to win Wisconsin.

[Cinemark]

An important caveat about the Klobuchar and Booker head 2 heads.

While the half-samples were selected randomly, the half with Booker versus Trump has significantly more younger voters than the half with Klobuchar. Sanders also does better in the Booker half-sample, although no other candidates do significantly better in either half-sample.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/11/20/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-shifts-in-wisconsin-public-opinion-favorable-to-president-trump-on-impeachment-and-presidential-election-preferences/

[junior chįmp]

This poll can't be right. All white people love "Uncle" Joe and Wisconsin is pretty white. He's Scranton Joe and his face is the subject of many tattoos on the ass cheeks of WWC voters

[Lisa's voting Biden]

I'd be curious to see a county map of a Trump +14 win here against Klobuchar.

[DrScholl]

The hypocrisy in this thread is clear. Any poll that is good for Trump is taken to mean that he's guaranteed to win, but any poll that has him behind is considered to be wrong.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

The hypocrisy in this thread is clear. Any poll that is good for Trump is taken to mean that he's guaranteed to win, but any poll that has him behind is considered to be wrong.

I don't think anyone is saying that or implying it aside from hardcore Trumpists.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Georgia could conceivably vote left of Wisconsin? Who in the world could have presdicted this as a possibility?

[libertpaulian]

Yeah, there's no way Klobuchar is losing in a landslide on her home turf.  Junk.

[MT Treasurer]

Here’s a bold prediction: Democrats could absolutely win AZ and GA even if they lose WI. It’s a must-win state only for Republicans.

[Skill and Chance]

Here’s a bold prediction: Democrats could absolutely win AZ and GA even if they lose WI. It’s a must-win state only for Republicans.

This I agree with.  People here are treating this as an automatic Trump reelection if this poll is right, but I don't think that's the case at all because of AZ/GA/NC.  If PA is also Trump+5ish though...

[Cinemark]

Here’s a bold prediction: Democrats could absolutely win AZ and GA even if they lose WI. It’s a must-win state only for Republicans.

And people thought the 2016 electoral map was ugly, just wait untill 2020 when we have a blue(red atlas) Georgia enclave sandwiched between a red(blue atlas) North Carolina and Florida.  

[SN2903]

Impeachment is clearly backfiring

[Cinemark]

Impeachment is clearly backfiring

I'd agree with you if democrats didnt just win in Kentucky and Louisiana.