Chile Constitutional Referendum, October 25th 2020

[Estrella]

Another Today In History: On October 5, 1988, a plebiscite took place. 56% of voters asked Pinochet to pretty please stop being a murderous dictator and, somewhat surprisingly, he complied. Today it's mostly remembered for the cheesy as hell but iconic campaign song for the No side (as in no, we don't want Pinochet; the question on the ballot was literally just his name):

As for the other side - if you think today's Rechazo ads are cringe...

Ｍ Ａ Ｒ Ｘ Ｉ Ｓ Ｔ Ａ Ｓ      Ｒ Ｅ Ｅ Ｅ Ｅ Ｅ Ｅ Ｅ

[kaoras]

I mean, if you believe ex Air Force Commander and Junta Member, Fernando Matthei, he once said that Pinochet wanted to not recognize the results but he refused to sign the decree (and Matthei was the one to first recognize the triumph of No to the media), though he later denied that, so who knows.

Although the course of the events that night (especially the delay in the results) strongly implies that his first version was the truth IMO.

Also, Fun Fact about the 1988 plebiscite: There was a lot of intimidation in rural zones, there are several rural comunas that voted Yes to Pinochet and haven't supported the right in any election since then, for example, San Pedro de Atacama, Combarbalá, Freirina, in northern Chile, and in general there was a strong urban-rural (urban zones voting overwhelming No) divide that hasn't repeated itself in any election ever since. (In fact, the only regional capital that consistently votes significantly different from its countryside is Valdivia in Los Ríos, and even then its adjacent municipalities are significantly more left-wing than the rest of the region)  

[kaoras]

Why is the Chilean left so split?

Oh, the fun part is that I wish that the chart represented all the divisions. It left out all the parties that left the Broad Front. Besides, Unidad Constituyente is only an electoral pact. In political terms, PS-PPD-PR doesn't coordinate with the DC and PRO technically should belong to Unidad para el Cambio (Though they most likely will get kicked out, I can see them joining Progressive Convergence, the PS-PPD-PR alliance)

As to why it is divided, well, the Chilean left has always been divided. The problem is that now there isn't a coalition that is significantly bigger than all of the other, or big enough to defeat the right on its own. On page 3 I already explained the rise and division of the Broad Front.

But in the end, it comes down that the Broad Front primarily wants to replace the old Concertación (PS-PPD-PR-DC) parties as the main left-wing force in the country so they don't want unity. Progressive Convergence (PS-PPD-PR) doesn't have any political project other than "we are not the right" so they are more open to alliances, but they obviously don't want to be replaced. DC thinks that differentiating itself as a more centrist and moderate force is the only way to stop its electoral decline so they are resistant to the Broad Front and the communists. The Communists are confident in Jadue candidacy so they don't see the need for unity because they think that their candidate is going to lead the left in presidential elections. All the other small leftist parties are divided by different shades of purism.

Now, there are significant policy differences between, say, the DC and the Broad Front, but given how dire the situation of the country is, they should be able to put that differences aside to at least make sure that the Right doesn't keep violating human rights or end over-represented in the constituent convention, for god's sake.

This probably can't be solved at the voter level either. The old Concertación base cares first and foremost about keeping the right out of power, and they have never forgiven the Broad Front for letting Piñera in. Take for example, my mom. She has voted in the first round for a left-wing alternative candidate in every presidential election since 1990. On the issues she agrees with them more than with Progressive Convergence. But she would never vote for them because in her eyes they only are the right useful idiots. Hell, my whole extended family spents all day complaining about how sh**tty the center-left parties are but they would never even consider voting for the Broad Front after what happened in 2017. But as I said, Progressive Convergence doesn't have any political project or vision, so they are also unlikely to benefit from the government chaos or recuperate its former voters.

[Babeuf]

Another Today In History: On October 5, 1988, a plebiscite took place. 56% of voters asked Pinochet to pretty please stop being a murderous dictator and, somewhat surprisingly, he complied. Today it's mostly remembered for the cheesy as hell but iconic campaign song for the No side (as in no, we don't want Pinochet; the question on the ballot was literally just his name):

As for the other side - if you think today's Rechazo ads are cringe...

Ｍ Ａ Ｒ Ｘ Ｉ Ｓ Ｔ Ａ Ｓ      Ｒ Ｅ Ｅ Ｅ Ｅ Ｅ Ｅ Ｅ

I assume most in this thread have probably seen it but there is a good film from 2012 called No starring Gael Garcia Bernal that focuses on the ad campaign for the plebiscite.

[H. Ross Peron]

This probably can't be solved at the voter level either. The old Concertación base cares first and foremost about keeping the right out of power, and they have never forgiven the Broad Front for letting Piñera in. Take for example, my mom. She has voted in the first round for a left-wing alternative candidate in every presidential election since 1990. On the issues she agrees with them more than with Progressive Convergence. But she would never vote for them because in her eyes they only are the right useful idiots. Hell, my whole extended family spents all day complaining about how sh**tty the center-left parties are but they would never even consider voting for the Broad Front after what happened in 2017. But as I said, Progressive Convergence doesn't have any political project or vision, so they are also unlikely to benefit from the government chaos or recuperate its former voters.

In what sense is the Broad Front blamed for getting Pinera elected? Did they fail to endorse the centre-left candidate for the second round in the Presidential election?

[kaoras]

Yep, the most he got was some people from the Broad Front saying "He sucks but Piñera is worse, so I'm voting for him but won't endorse".

That obviously didn't go well and they are the main scapegoats for your rank and file center-left voters (which absolutely despised Piñera even before last year.

[kaoras]

Today is the last day to publish polls before the election (the two-week ban is among the dumbest things approved in recent times)

Latest polls:

Criteria: Approve 72- Reject 19 | Constituent Convention 59- Mixed Convention 28
Activa: Approve 65- Reject 14 (84-15 among likely voters) | Constituent 56- Mixed 20 (75-22 LV)
Data Influye: Approve 69- Reject 18 | Constituent 61- Mixed 21
MORI: Approve 66- Reject 15 (78-17 among likely voters) | Constituent 51- Mixed 27 (61-30 LV)
Microdatos: Approve 66- Reject 13 | Constituent 48,4- Mixed 27,4.

Tres Quinto's polling average (excludes undecided): Approve 80.5- Reject 19.5 | Constituent Convention 65- Mixed Convention 35

Numen (which it may or not be a real poll) which has been touted by Reject hacks, has Approve 38.5 and Reject 33,9. (Approve 58- Reject 42 projecting undecided). Wouldn't bother to pay much attention to that.

Most pundits believe that in the end Reject will get to low 30's or high 20's at the very least, and is being under polled.  Well, maybe, who knows? Personally, I think it will be like 72-28 for Approve, 65 -35 for Constituent Convention.

Also, very interestingly, polls are finding that the traditional gender gap is reviving. Men are more likely to vote Approve and Constituent Convention than women. Historically, men in Chile have been a lot more left-wing than women. This gender gap persisted until 2006 when Bachelet practically erased it and since then (and until now) remained almost nonexistent even when she wasn't on the ballot.

[kaoras]

Small updates: The anniversary of the 18 of October had massive protests and very violent incidents, despite all political actors calling for peaceful demonstrations. It's almost as if violence responds to structural problems of the country and there isn't any organized group behind it... It's bad optics for approve option, no doubt about that though. Still, according to Activa, 66% think that the social uprising was good for the country.

Francisco Vidal (PPD) declared himself a presidential candidate!. Good luck with that.

Also, Pamela Jiles (PH) has seen a concerning rise in its standing on opinions polls. I think she has what it takes to ride a populist wave that could potentially sweep the presidential election. And honestly, the political class of this country would have it totally deserved. All parties are such jokes that if it is not her, I'm sure another populist will rise.  

[H. Ross Peron]

While I'm supportive of the protests as a matter of principle, I admit to being viscerally disturbed by the torching of two churches.

[kaoras]

Well, given that there really isn't much to do until Sunday, here's an update in the neverending quest of the center-left: can we find a candidate that polls more than 2%?

PPD has 3 declared pre-candidates: Jorge Tarud, which nobody cares about; their president Heraldo Muñoz, who has been trying to be a thing since the beginning of this government to no avail despite nominally good approval ratings; and the freshly declared Francisco Vidal. Vidal appears in a lot of tv shows in which he fulfills the role of the center-left partisan hack. The thing is he is also widely disliked among sectors of the left, either for his personality or his past (He literally was an ex Patria and Libertad member in the '70s).

The parliamentary party seems to mostly support Muñoz but the main speculation is the position of the infamous Guido Girardi, the ultimate machine boss that could easily tip the balance in favor of one or another (which speaks volumes of the state of PPD as a party). Anyway, they are exploring a number of alternatives like going with 2 candidates to a primary of Constituent Unity, internal primaries, or most likely, an opinion poll.

The Socialist Party has the opposite problem. They feel like they should have a candidate but the only one who has declared interest is Jose Miguel Insulza. He is widely praised as a "statesman" by the pundit commentariat (i.e: he is a third-way centrist old dude) but within the PS nobody seems to wants him to be their candidate.  Plus, his early commentaries about the unrest (that "it should be repressed with energy") basically disqualify him. In the PS they want either senator Carlos Montes or senator and former party president Isabel Allende (no, not the writer).

They think that Carlos Montes has appeal to the leftist forces and the FA and could unify the left (this is more of an informed characteristic than something he has actually shown) but he has refused to run. Isabel Allende, being the daughter of Salvador Allende, would be symbolic and could help neutralize communist Daniel Jadue. She is probably their best shot given that the Allende last name does seem to have important electoral power (along her career she literally has been parachuted to districts in half of the regions of the country and has won every time) but she also isn't interested. Some are even considering their current party president Alvaro Elizalde which just screams desperation given that he is very unpopular.

Is worth mentioning that there are 2 other names that belong to the PS and have been mentioned. Ex-energy minister Máximo Pacheco and former CODELCO president Óscar Landarretche. Both have been pushed by, let's say, "elite factic powers of old Concertación" because they are moderate and centrist. Both are absolute nobodies among public opinion though. (Besides, Pacheco isn't actually that moderate, which is probably the reason he has been left behind by those forces)

[kaoras]

It seems that an opinion poll shamelessly ignored the ban on opinion polls. Is Panel Ciudadano-UDD fieldwork is October 21st-22nd. They claim to have been the most accurate pollster from the 2017 election.

Their results are:

Approve 81,4% - Reject 18,6%
Constitutional Convention 76 %- Mixed Convention 24%
[They exclude undecideds]

This is more or less the same as the other polls if you ignore undecideds, though better for the Constitutional Convention.

Conventional wisdom is that Approve is going to win by less than the polls are predicting. We'll see tomorrow.  

[seb_pard]

Just voted (in a consulate). One of the happiest moment, this is an unique opportunity.

Turnout apparently is huge. New Zealand was remarkable, around 120 peoplem voted in the 2017 runoff, but today more than 850 people voted there! (798 approving and 57 rejecting a new constitution)

[seb_pard]

In 2017 Pinera received 63 voted in Shanghai (84%, 76 votes in total). This year the result was 35 approving a new constitution (42% support, 82 valid votes)

[kaoras]

Dude, change the title

BTW, seems that participation will be high.

[Lumine]

Voted as well (Approve and Mixed Convention). It does seem participation has been higher than the past elections under voluntary voting, which should be a encouraging sign for "Approve". The actual margins will be very interesting to see.

[kaoras]

I voted at 6pm and my polling station was almost empty (even though it had veeeeeeeeeery long lines in the morning)

It seems to be a pattern nationwide. I think turnout will be very high by Chilean standards, probably a record number of votes but I doubt it will top 60%.

[skbl17]

Polls are officially closed!

- Official results from the Chilean Electoral Service (SERVEL): http://www.servelelecciones.cl/

Livestreams:

- TVN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjQsjgBt03I
- Canal 13: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSkcuuKS4X8
- Meganoticias: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDr-rxo-Jio
- CNN Chile/Chilevision: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFb4iKd4iHI

[skbl17]

34.25% of the international vote counted (0.16% of the overall vote):

- Approve: 86.9% (8,054 votes)
- Reject: 13.1% (1,214 votes)

- Constitutional Convention: 86.7% (8,539)
- Mixed Constitutional Convention: 13.3% (1,316)

(74/216 booths counted)

[Estrella]

T13 is at a count in Las Condes (a mega-rich suburb of Santiago, 74% for Piñera+Kast in 2017) and Apruebo is narrowly ahead even there.

Lmao.

[kaoras]

T13 is at a count in Las Condes (a mega-rich suburb of Santiago, 74% for Piñera+Kast in 2017) and Apruebo is narrowly ahead even there.

Lmao.

To be fair they are winning in Vitacura (88% for Piñera in the second turn). But yeah, this is shaping to be a spectacular landslide for Approve and Constituent Convention

[Lumine]

78% to 22% in the latest update, with 1,76% of the vote counted. It's early and it might narrow a bit more, but aye, pretty clear landslide for Approve and, interestingly, for the Constituent Convention too (it seems speculation that the result could be closer there was rather mistaken).

[skbl17]

5.23% of the overall vote counted:

- Approve: 77.27% (251,323 votes)
- Reject: 22.73% (73,933)

(2,349/44,913 booths counted)

The convention mechanism count is proceeding more slowly; that's still at 84% for a constitutional convention with 0.36% of booths in.

[kaoras]

Chile proper vote is stable at 76%, I think the overall result will end around that number

[kaoras]

Regional results (especially in the north) seem to resemble more closely the "usual" voting patterns of relative strength for the left (Antofagasta, Atacama, Coquimbo, O'Higgins north of 80%) instead of the absolute nonsense that was 2017. The only outlier I see is Maule that seems slightly below average for Approve.   

[skbl17]

Vote on a new constitution:

19.1% of the overall vote counted:

- Approve: 77.5% (1,001,157 votes)
- Reject: 22.5% (290,668)

(8,559/44,913 booths counted)

I agree with kaoras that Approve will probably finish around 76-77%, give or take a couple of points.

Watching TVN; the celebrations are in full swing in Santiago now.

---

Convention mechanism:

2.2% of the official vote counted:

- Constitutional Convention: 79.18% (96,340 votes)
- Mixed Constitutional Convention: 20.82% (25,338)

(1,007/44,913 booths counted)