Belgian political crisis

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2/02/2020

Belgium calls for new elections

After more than 200 days without government, the king of Belgium has called for new elections. They'll be held in may 2020 after Open VLD - MR - s.pa - PS and N-VA couldn't make a deal.

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PTB and Vlaams Belang winners of the election, traditional parties lose a lot.

Elections were held today and the Belgian has chosen. Vlaams Belang is the main winner of the election in Flanders, increasing their vote share even after their succesful elections in 2019 and winning all five provinces of Flanders. The communist party PTB also profited from many scandals the socialist party PS faces, and win a number of municipalities as well as the provinces of Hainaut and Liege. Ecolo did well as well, increasing their vote share as well, winning the province of Namur and Brussels region narrowly in a close foughted battle against PTB. MR won the province of Luxemburg but overall suffered losses. PS got blown this election cycle, while CdH was able to minimize the losses. In Flanders the government coalition of CD&V, N-VA, Open VLD all lost quite a bit, mainly to the right, but also to the left. PVDA - able to only win their traditional stronghold of Zelzate and the Greens were the winners on the left, profiting from again another loss of s.pa that with their new young fresh face wasn't able to re-invent theirselves. The big winner of the election is of course the far-right anti-immigration party Vlaams Belang which nearly swiped all of Flanders.


Results by Municipilaty

legenda:
maroon / dark red: communist PVDA-PTB
orange: CdH (center-left on Walloon side), CD&V (center on Flemish side)
blue: MR (center-right on Walloon side), Open VLD (right-wing on Flemish side)
yellow: N-VA (right-wing on Flemish side, nationalist)
brown: Vlaams Belang (far-right on Flemish side)
green: Green (left-wing on Flemish side), Ecolo (left-wing on Walloon side)
purple: Defi (center liberal regionalist party)



Brussels in detail



Results by Province

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Results by province:

West-Flanders:
Vlaams Belang 28,1% (+7,9) - 5 seats (+1)
N-VA 20,2% (+0,5) - 3 seats (-1)
CD&V 17,4% (-0.2) - 3 seats (=)
Open VLD 13,1 (+0,8) - 2 seats (=)
Groen 7,5 (+0,4) - 1 seat (=)
s.pa 6,9 (-5,3) - 1 seat (-1)
PVDA 5,7 (+2,3) - 1 seat (+1)
Dieranimal 0,8 (-0,3)
Piratenpartij 0,3 (-0,2)

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Êast Flanders
Vlaams Belang 25,6% (+5,6) - 6 seats (+2)
Open VLD 18,1% (+0,3) - 4 seats (=)
N-VA 17,9% (-3,8) - 4 seats (-1)
Groen 12,1% (+1,8) - 2 seats (=)
CD&V 9,6% (-3,0) - 2 seats (=)
PVDA 7,8% (+2,3) - 1 seat (=)
s.pa 6,9% (-3,3) - 1 seat (-1)

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Antwerp
N-VA 27,2% (-3,8) - 7 seats (-1)
Vlaams Belang 24,6% (+5,8) - 7 seats (+2)
Groen 13,1 (+2,1) - 3 seats (+1)
PVDA 10,3% (+2,6) - 3 seats (+1)
Open VLD 9,8 (+0,2) - 2 seats (=)
CD&V 9,3 (-1,8) - 2 seats (-1)
s.pa 4,5 (-3,6) - 0 seats (-2)

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Flemish Brabant:
N-VA 30,1 (+2,0) - 5 seats (=)
Vlaams Belang 20,1 (+6,6) - 3 seats (+1)
Open VLD 14,3 (-1,1) - 2 seats (-1)
Groen 13,2 (+1,4) - 2 seats (=)
CD&V 8,8 (-4,9) - 1 seat (-1)
PVDA 6,2 (+1,4) - 1 seat (+1)
s.pa 6,0 (-3,5) - 1 seat (=)

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Limburg:
Vlaams Belang 26,6 (+6.9) - 4 seats (+1)
N-VA 18,1 (-4,5) - 2 seats (-1)
CD&V 15,5 (-3,2) - 2 seats (=)
Open VLD 13,2 (+1,2) - 1 seat (=)
s.pa 10,1 (-3,7) - 1 seat (-1)
PVDA 8,0 (+2,4) - 1 seat (+1)
Groen 7,5 (+0,7) - 1 seat (=)

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Seat allocation Flanders:
Total 87/150 seats
Vlaams Belang - 25 seats (+7)
N-VA - 21 seats (-4)
Open VLD - 11 seats (-1)
CD&V - 10 seats (-2)
Groen - 9 seats (+1)
PVDA - 7 seats (+4)
s.pa - 4 seats (-5)

The winners are clearly the far-right and the far-left. The ultranationalists gained 7 seats, while the marxists in Flanders won 4 seats to a total of 7, further settling themselves as the new socialist party of Flanders. The two main losers are the social democrat party which loses 5 of their 9 seats and the conservative-liberal N-VA which lost 4 seats but still hold on to 21 seats. The Greens are the only other party to win a seat. The other traditional parties suffered minor losses.

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Brussels Region:

Ecolo 27,6 (+6) - 5 seats (+1)
PTB*PVDA 24,3 (+12) - 5 seats (+3)
MR 10,2 (-7,3) - 2 seats (-1)
Défi 9,7 (-0,5) - 2 seats (=)
PS 8,2 (-11,7) - 1 seat (-2)
cdH 3,4 (-2.4) - 0 seats (-1)
ISLAM 3,1
DierAnimal 3,0
N-VA 2,6 (-0,6)
Open VLD 2,5 (+0,2)
Vlaams Belang 2,4 (+0,7)
La Droite 1,7 (NEW)
CD&V 0,7 (-0,6)
Listes Destexhe (disbanded) (-2,6)
PP (disbanded) (-1,7)

Elaboration: In a city like Brussels you can clearly see the rich / poor divide. Corruption among PS members have caused the PS to fall to drop like a brick. MR is getting punished for involvement with the right-wing parties in Flanders. Ecolo takes their votes from there, as the alternative for richer people and the richer suburbs, while PTB wins the poorer suburbs.

Défi is a regionalist party. ISLAM is a pro-sharia law party and extremely religiously conservative (women are not allowed to shake hands with a man is one of their proposals). DierAnimal is a left-wing party focused on animal rights and hard vegan diets. The far-right has basically died in Brussels and Wallonia. La Droite is a solution but is not known at the time. The only far-right party The Populist Party disbanded not so long ago (PP). You have the choice for Flemish right-wing parties here, or for La Droite or MR as french-speaking parties.  Défi is a french-speaking interests party, and focused on the center.

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Hainaut:

PTB 30,1 (+14,5) - 6 seats (+3)
PS: 27,9 (-6,3) - 6 seats (-3)
MR 18,3 (+2,3) - 3 seats (=)
Ecolo 15,2 (+2,9) - 3 seats (=)
cdH 4,9 (-3,1) - 0 seats

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Namur:
Ecolo 24,2 (+9) - 2 seats (+1)
MR 21,2 (+1,5) - 1 seat (=)
PTB 21,1 (+9,2) - 1 seat (=)
PS 17,3 (-4,8) - 1 seat (-1)
cdH 12,0 (-5,0) - 1 seat (=)

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Walloon Brabant

MR 35,1 (+0,1) - 2 seats (-1)
Ecolo 25,2 (+6,4) - 1 seat (=)
PTB 17,1 (+9,8) - 1 seat (+1)
PS 14,9 (-0,3) - 1 seat (=)
cDH 5,2 (-1,9) - 0 seats (=)

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Liege:

PTB 27,1 (+10,6) - 5 seats (+2)
Ecolo 21,7 (+6,2) - 4 seats (+1)
PS 21,2 (-3,7) - 3 seats (-2)
MR 21,2 (+1,5) - 3 seats (=)
cDH 5,3 (-3,1) - 0 seats (-1)

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Luxembourg:

MR 25,1 (+1,5) - 1 seat
Ecolo 22,3 (+6,3) - 1 seat
cdH 19,9 (-3,5) - 1 seat
PTB 15,3 (+6,3) - 1 seat (+1)
PS 13,2 (-5,5) - 0 seats (-1)

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Belgium total seat allocation



Total of 150 seats

PTB*PVDA - 26 seats (+14)
Vlaams Belang - 24 seats (+7 (ind included)
N-VA - 20 seats (-4 ind included)
Ecolo - 16 seats (+3)
PS - 12 seats (-8)
MR - 12 seats (-2)
Open VLD - 11 seats (-1)
CD&V - 10 seats (-2)
Groen - 9 seats (+1)
s.pa - 4 seats (-5)
Défi - 2 seats (=)
cdH - 2 seats (-2)
N-VA independent - 1 seat
Vlaams Belang independent - 1 seat

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I seem to have made a mistake (double counting seats or something like that). I'll check on it first. It might mean that forming coalitions might even be harder LOL as i'm counting with 158 seats.

F.Y.I. There are also two independents chosen, one who sits on the list of N-VA and one of the list of Vlaams Belang, called JMDD (libertarian independent) and Dries Van Langenhove (White identitarian group youngster)

EDIT: mistake solved

Tomorrow i'll talk about possible coalitions, regional elections and we'll start with the real storyline. The "what after".

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Walloon regional elections (same voters numbers as federal for simplicity as they're usually barely differ)

Hainaut
PTB - 9 seats (+4)
PS - 9 seats (-2)
MR - 5 seats (=)
Ecolo - 4 seats (+1)
cdH - 0 seats (-3)

Namur
Ecolo - 3 seats (+1)
MR - 3 seats (=)
PTB - 2 seats (+1)
PS - 2 seats (-1)
cdH - 1 seat (-1)

Walloon Brabant
MR - 4 seats (=)
Ecolo - 2 seats (=)
PS - 1 seat (=)
PTB - 1 seat (+1)
cdH - 0 seats (-1)

Liege

PTB - 7 seats (+3)
PS - 5 seats (-2)
Ecolo - 5 seats (+1)
MR - 5 seats (-1)
cdH - 1 seat (-1)

Luxembourg
MR - 2 seats (=)
Ecolo - 1 seat (=)
PTB - 1 seat (+1)
PS - 1 seat (=)
cdH - 1 seat (-1)

Total:

PTB - 20 seats (+10)
MR - 19 seats (-1)
PS - 18 seats (-5)
Ecolo - 15 seats (+3)
cdH - 3 seats (-7)

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Brussels Parliament elections:

Dutch language (17 seats):
Groen 24,1% (+3,5) - 5 seats (+1)
N-VA 17,1% (-0.9) - 3 seats (=)
Open VLD 16,7% (+0,9) - 3 seats (=)
Vlaams Belang 13,2% (+4,9) - 2 seats (+1)
PVDA 9,1% - 2 seats (+1)
One Brussels s.pa 7,5% (-7,6) - 1 seat (-2)
Agora 7,4%% - 1 seat (=)
CD&V 2,8% (-4,5) - 0 seats (-1)
Others 2%

Ecolo 27,1% (+8) - 20 seats (+5)
PTB 25,1% (+11,6) - 19 seats (+9)
MR 10,3% (-6,6) - 7 seats (-6)
Défi 10,1% (-3,7) - 7 seats (-3)
PS 9,1% (-12,9) - 6 seats (-11)
ISLAM 5,4% (NEW) - 4 seats (+4)
DierAnimal 5,2% (+3,9) - 3 seats (+2)
La Droite 3,6% (NEW) - 2 seats (+2)
cdH 2,5% (-5,1) - 0 seats (-6)

Total seats:

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West-Flanders:
Vlaams Belang - 7
N-VA - 5
CD&V - 4
Open VLD - 3
Groen - 1
s.pa - 1
PVDA - 1

East-Flanders

Vlaams Belang - 8
Open VLD - 5
N-VA - 5
Groen - 3
CD&V - 2
PVDA - 2
s.pa - 2

Antwerp:

N-VA - 10
Vlaams Belang - 9
Groen - 5
PVDA - 3
Open VLD - 3
CD&V - 3
s.pa - 0

Flemish Brabant:

N-VA - 6
Vlaams Belang - 4
Open VLD - 3
Groen - 3
CD&V - 2
PVDA - 1
s.pa - 1

Limburg:
Vlaams Belang - 5
N-VA - 3
CD&V - 3
Open VLD - 2
s.pa - 1
PVDA - 1
Groen - 1

Brussels:

Total:
Vlaams Belang - 35
N-VA - 30
Open VLD - 17
Groen - 15
CD&V - 14
PVDA - 8
s.pa - 5

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Reactions from elections:

Maxime Prévot from cdH announces that he'll resign as chairman, after his party got obliterated. PS leader Paul Magnette called the election a disappointment but is looking forward to create a coalition with MR and Ecolo. He however immediately said that he wants to exclude N-VA and Vlaams Belang on a federal level. Zakia Khattabi from Ecolo said that the election was a success, but that's not up to her to start coalition forming, while also excluding N-VA and Vlaams Belang. Meanwhile George Louis-Bouchez from MR is disappointed with the turn of the elections, but wants to thanks his voters for choosing MR. He said that MR has an important task ahead and that's forming a coalition on a federal level, with preferrably a MR prime minister.

On Flemish level, VB chairman Tom Van Grieken called openly to form a coalition on federal level with N-VA. Something Bart De Wever immediately rejected, but fellow N-VA'er Theo Francken said that he was open with talking to VB. He said the losses were expected but that his party was able to minimize losses. Open VLD chairman Vincent Van Quickenborne was very disappointed following the election, said he had hoped for better results and a rejection of the extremes, but said that his party wants to be part of the next government. CD&V chairman Sammy Mahdi said that he prefers his party to be in opposition after a disappointing result, but that he was not stepping down following the result. Green chairwoman Almaci was happy after the election, but said it's a disgrace that so many people chose for the extremes. PVDA-PTB chairman Peter Mertens was very happy about the election, but also that so many people still chose for right-wing parties. He openly called towards Ecolo and PS to form a government on Walloon and Brussels level.

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First talks for government creation

The King has invited Bart De Wever (N-VA) and gave him the task to form a government. The King also invited all other parties and told that they all had a responsability to create a government, how hard it even is. N-VA meanwhile has heard all parties, and have excluded PVDA-PTB from future talks. The Greens have said "no" to Bart De Wever. PS-s.pa also have said that it's unlikely they will step in a government with N-VA but there will be future talks between them. CD&V and cDH meanwhile said that's not up to them to form a government after another loss again, but have said they'll take their responsability if this country needs a government to form. MR and Open VLD are open for government participation, but they've said they're not keen on forming another coalition with the left, while excluding the far-right, leaving little possibilities left for a federal government.

A government needs 75 seats of the 150, preferrably with a majority on both Flemish and Walloon side. De Wever has said that due to polarization the latter one will be hard to achieve, but have said they're only participating in a government with a Flemish majority. "This is a requirement of us. Without a Flemish majority, we won't govern". A Flemish majority will include 43 Flemish seats, of the 150.

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Flemish government talks: N-VA, the kingmaker

As with calling new elections, also new regional elections were called at the time. A regional government needs to be formed, but the current coalition of Jambon I doesn't have a majority anymore. They have exactly 1 seat on shortage to form a government. Jambon has said that he wants to create a government, and that he is open to talk with Vlaams Belang, if the leftist parties won't take part of the government. Tom Van Grieken meanwhile has openly called for a Vlaams Belang - N-VA coalition which would have a narrow majority. N-VA meanwhile is the kingmaker as a government without the conservative N-VA and far-right Vlaams Belang isn't possible anymore. So a leftist coalition isn't possible at all. The only possibilities are a government of national union (between all parties except PVDA and Vlaams Belang), with or without either Groen or s.pa but one of them has to be included. Or a Brazilian coalition consistant out of the Greens, Liberals and Conservative nationalists, but the Greens have already said they're very hesitant to take part in such a coalition. A Burgundian coalition also has a shortage of seats, as s.pa only has 5 seats. s.pa have said that they prefer to sit in the opposition.

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Walloon government: Left-wing coalition or Purple-Green?

Ecolo and PS are having talks, and they're the ones who have to form a government, as they've receiven the task. They have talked to every party in the parliament, and have said they're only open to a red-green-red and a purple-green coalition. PS have said that they prefer to not govern with MR after they've striked them in the back in a former coalition where PS was ousted out by cdH and MR, something the voter didn't appreciate apparently, giving the losses of MR and especially cdH. MR has said that they want no coalition with PTB. cdH has said that they will be in opposition during this legislature, leaving two options open, a purple-green or a red-green-red coalition. PS and Ecolo have said that they keep both options open, and have openly called to PTB to form a government, if they even dared to do so. Magnette said that PTB was a spoiler party, only wanting to sit in the opposition, and not to govern at all. He has said that PS is open to form a left-wing coalition between the communists, greens and social democrats.

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Brussels government talks: PTB and Green coalition in the make?

Meanwhile PVDA-PTB has said that they're open to form a coalition with Green, Agora and DierAnimal. Ecolo has said that they have much interest in such a coalition, but that they'd prefer the social democrats for more balance. The Flemish greens meanwhile are hesistant to join such a coalition, saying that Brussels is not communist at all, and preferring to have a look at a centrist option, such as a social democrat - green - liberal - défi coalition. PTB meanwhile answered that they're willing to form a government with the Walloon greens but without the Flemish greens if they don't want to enter a left-wing coalition, saying that it showed their true mask as a fake leftist party. Ecolo said that they don't want to participate in a government without the social democrats and the greens. PTB said that DierAnimal and Agora are healthy alternatives for the Flemish greens. Such a solution would have far from a majority on the Flemish side, but PTB said that there was no way that such a solution would work at all given the polarization of the country and that they have putted a lot of dutch-speaking members on their Walloon sides, and have promised that there will be one dutch speaking secretary and one dutch-speaking minister (out of 8 in total).

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PVDA-PTB and Ecolo reach an agreement

PVDA-PTB will offer Ecolo the minister president in exchange for a coalition between PTB and Ecolo. The Flemish Greens also ultimately decided to take part of the coalition. Agora, Dieranimal and the social democrat parties all said they'll stay in opposition. With 46 seats out of 85 seats, this coalition will have a clear majority. The government has made up a program in a few weeks that will benefit the average Brussels person with ambitious proposals for both the social institutions and the climate. The Greens have said that this will be the most-climate-friendly government that Belgium will ever have. The program includes free public transport, free education and free healthcare, which are bold proposals, but together we can do it, said newly minister president Zakia Khattabi. The right-wing parties have already warned for a communist coalition, and have called the greens backstabbers and as communist as PTB.

Brussels government composition (PTB-PVDA-Groen-Ecolo) (46/85)

Minister-president, responsible for or Urban Development and Urban Renewal, Tourism, the Promotion of the Image of Brussels and Bicultural Issues of regional Importance: Zakia Khattabi (Ecolo)

Age: 43 / Full-time politician, chairwoman of Ecolo

Minister for Mobility, Public Works and Road Safety: Elke Van Den Brandt (Groen)

Age: 39 / Full time politician

Minister for Climate Change, Environment, Energy and Participatory Democracy: Alain Maron (Ecolo)

Age: 49 / Full-time politician

Minister for responsible for Employment and Vocational Training, Digitisation, Local Authorities and Animal Welfare: Stéphanie Koplowicz (PVDA-PTB)

Age: 42 / Journalist, communication manager and translator

Secretary of State for Economic Transition and Scientific Research: Barbara Trachte (Ecolo)

Age 39 / Full-time politician

Secretary of State of the Brussels-Capital Region, responsible for Housing and Equal Opportunities: Caroline De Bock (PVDA-PTB)

Age: 26 / Master of gender studies and teacher

Secretary of State of the Brussels-Capital Region, responsible for Urbanism and Heritage, European and International Relations, Foreign Trade and Fire fighting and Emergency medical Assistance: Françoise De Smedt (PVDA-PTB)

Age: 34 master of physics / physician in a hospital