1996 Missouri Gubernatorial Election

[RBH]

Gov. Mel Carnahan (D) - Blue
Auditor Margaret Kelly (R) - Red



I'm not totally sure on the details, but the results were 57/40 for Carnahan in a state that went 48/41 for Clinton.

Essentially this appears to be one of the most recent times that a Democrat just swept most of the state in a Missouri state election. I could check the county results for the Attorney General's races (Jay Nixon being the AG from 1993 to 2009).

One split I use is a 15/100 split. 2/3rds of all people in Missouri live in 15 counties. The other 1/3rd live in the other 100 counties.

15/100 in map form



This is the same for the 1990 and 2000 censuses.

15/100 splits for the 2004 Gubernatorial election
Top 15: 53/46 McCaskill
Bottom 100: 61/38 Blunt

For the 2004 Presidential election
Top 15: 51/48 Kerry
Bottom 100: 64/36 Bush

And for this election

Top 15: 58/40 Carnahan
Bottom 100: 56/42 Carnahan

That's pretty much running the table.

And final map info for the people who don't know much about Missouri.

Kelly carried Southwest Missouri (which is a huge stronghold for the GOP), the traditionally Republican Gasconade county (by 276 votes/4.6%), Cape Giraudeau County (by 359 votes/1.3%), St. Charles County (by 1,424 votes/1.5%), and Warren County (by 195 votes/2.7%).

That's pretty much all.

Although Kelly did get closer than William Webster, who lost to Carnahan in 1992 by a 58/41 margin.

EDIT:

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[True Democrat]

Can you reverse the colors on the map by any chance?

[RBH]

Here's a reversed map:

[Q]

Very interesting, RBH.

Can you explain Cape's being more GOP than most of the rest of SEMO?

Also, why the decline in total votes for governor between 1992 and 96?

[RBH]

I'd imagine there's something in the demographics in Cape Giraudeau (it is the home area of Rush Limbaugh and all)

As for the turnout dip, the turnout went down in the Presidential election too, both nationwide and in Missouri

[Q]

I'd imagine there's something in the demographics in Cape Giraudeau (it is the home area of Rush Limbaugh and all)

As for the turnout dip, the turnout went down in the Presidential election too, both nationwide and in Missouri

Ah, I'd forgotten about the second one.  Thanks.

But Cape just doesn't seem culturally or economically different than the rest of the area.  Rush's brother Manley taught at my mom's high school over the river in Randolph County, IL.  That area's traditionally been Democratic.  Cape Girardeau county just seems to be an island of GOPism out there in an area of populist Democrats.  Still seems kinda out of place to me.

[RBH]

Maybe it's one of those civil war things. I'm not sure.

I know that Gasconade County has voted for Republicans since Lincoln due to the Civil War, and then due to their own small-town conservatism.

[minionofmidas]

It may have something to do with Cape Girardeau being more "new urban" and less rural than its surroundings. The more recent arrivals would be not much more conservative than the oldtimers, but vastly more Republican.