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October 31, 2020, 08:34:17 AM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20
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Author Topic: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20  (Read 1736 times)
Ebsy
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« on: November 18, 2019, 03:05:12 PM »

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/sc/sc11182019_snzm94.pdf/

Likely Voters
Biden: 33
Warren: 13
Sanders: 11
Buttigieg: 6
Steyer: 5
Yang: 4
Harris: 3
Booker: 2
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amdcpus
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2019, 03:09:35 PM »

I believe Steyer is now qualified for the December debate.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2019, 03:11:18 PM »

I believe Steyer is now qualified for the December debate.

He just needs the 200k donors which I imagine he'll get. Also Yang is now only one poll away.
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The Hunt for the Red October Surprises
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2019, 03:30:22 PM »

Buttigieg is at 11% with white voters and 0% with black voters.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2019, 03:31:31 PM »

Buttigieg is at 11% with white voters and 0% with black voters.

:Smiley
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marty
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« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2019, 03:32:26 PM »

I understand the sentiment that you donít want to give up after so much effort, but what the heck is Harris seeing on the ground and in these polls that makes her think she has a chance?
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#Joemala2020
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« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2019, 03:39:13 PM »

I understand the sentiment that you don’t want to give up after so much effort, but what the heck is Harris seeing on the ground and in these polls that makes her think she has a chance?
Why are y'all so intent on pushing her out of the race? Like... shouldn't this comment be reserved for Booker who is below her and is probably not going to qualify for the December debates?
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Laki
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« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2019, 03:41:37 PM »

I understand the sentiment that you donít want to give up after so much effort, but what the heck is Harris seeing on the ground and in these polls that makes her think she has a chance?
She should drop out.
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Skye
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« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2019, 03:42:51 PM »

Black voters might really be the nail in the coffin to the Buttigieg campaign even if he posts IA and NH wins. It's still an open question whether he can substantially improve with them or not, but these numbers certainly aren't encouraging.
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Vosem
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« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2019, 03:47:19 PM »

I believe Steyer is now qualified for the December debate.

No, he's actually quite far from the fundraising threshold. This poll does qualify Yang, though (and I think it's the strongest poll he's gotten out of SC, period).

Gabbard is still one poll away and still needs to hit the fundraising threshold (though unlike Steyer she's close to it and probably won't struggle).

Booker has no qualifying polls and is far from the threshold; I think he quits sometime around Thanksgiving.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2019, 03:52:26 PM »

Black voters might really be the nail in the coffin to the Buttigieg campaign even if he posts IA and NH wins. It's still an open question whether he can substantially improve with them or not, but these numbers certainly aren't encouraging.

The Dems compacted primaries so close together, that there wont be enough time for Warren, Buttigieg or Sanders to get a bounce after IA and NH. The primaries are 1 month apart.  Jan 3rd would of goven Candidates more time
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Pollster
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« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2019, 04:09:20 PM »

What's interesting is that white voters are 14% more likely to say they are paying "a lot" of attention to the race than Black voters - it stands to reason that Biden could see a slide similar to what he experienced in Iowa and New Hampshire if Black voters move away from him the way White voters have as they became more immersed in the race, a very big if.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2019, 04:20:26 PM »

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/sc/sc11182019_snzm94.pdf/

Likely Voters
Biden: 33
Warren: 13
Sanders: 11
Buttigieg: 6
Steyer: 5
Yang: 4
Harris: 3
Booker: 2


Also:
Klobuchar 1%
Gabbard 1%
Williamson 1%
Castro, Delaney, Messam, Bennet, Bullock, Sestak, Patrick 0%

Patrick debuts at 0%, and Bloomberg wasnít included as an option.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: November 18, 2019, 04:26:20 PM »

white, w/ college degree:
Biden 22%
Warren 18%
Buttigieg 14%
Sanders 8%
Steyer 8%
Gabbard 5%

white, w/ no college degree:
Biden 22%
Warren 16%
Sanders 14%
Yang 10%
Buttigieg 9%
Steyer 5%

black:
Biden 44%
Sanders 10%
Warren 8%
Harris 6%
Steyer 4%
Booker 2%

city:
Biden 31%
Sanders 14%
Warren 12%

suburb:
Biden 28%
Warren 18%
Sanders 13%

rural:
Biden 39%
Warren 11%
Sanders 7%

This poll does qualify Yang, though (and I think it's the strongest poll he's gotten out of SC, period).

No, Yang still needs one more poll for December.
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Biden +3 in Texas
dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #14 on: November 18, 2019, 05:54:51 PM »

Why are you rolling your eyes? It's a fact.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #15 on: November 18, 2019, 06:07:02 PM »

Good polls for Biden
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OneJ
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« Reply #16 on: November 18, 2019, 06:21:16 PM »


Same thing I was thinking, lol.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: November 18, 2019, 06:29:04 PM »

Not sure why people are obsessed with Harris dropping out but not Booker, Steyer, Yang, Klobuchar, etc
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #18 on: November 18, 2019, 07:39:33 PM »

Not sure why people are obsessed with Harris dropping out but not Booker, Steyer, Yang, Klobuchar, etc

The Prmaries are almost over, once the Holidays are upon us, and Feb and Marh primaries, Biden will be the presumptive nominee 😎😎😎😎
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Torrain
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« Reply #19 on: November 21, 2019, 10:21:34 AM »

Not sure why people are obsessed with Harris dropping out but not Booker, Steyer, Yang, Klobuchar, etc

Harris' campaign is clearly on a downward spiral, and is short enough on cash, that a cannier candidate would likely start to consider a tactical departure and immediate endorsement (likely of Warren, given their shared political history).

That's not to say that I don't want most of the candidates you mentioned to drop out. It's just that I think that if a candidate like Steyer is running a vanity campaign, it's a lot harder to get them to drop out, especially if they still have an effective funding apparatus.

Some candidates leave because of money, while others need to taste defeat in IA and NH before they drop out.

I think Harris could be persuaded by her aides to leave, in order to protect political capital, while candidates like Steyer, Yang and Gabbard will need to be resoundly defeated in order to make them consider leaving the race.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #20 on: November 21, 2019, 10:33:41 AM »

Biden will win the south pretty easily. I don't see any other candidate that could take the minority vote away from him, unless Harris or Booker suddenly became viable like Obama in 2008. There is no sign of that happening.
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Unbeatable Titan Joni Ernst
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« Reply #21 on: November 21, 2019, 10:50:53 AM »

The south on its own is not enough to win the nomination.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #22 on: November 21, 2019, 10:53:46 AM »

The south on its own is not enough to win the nomination.

While that's true, it's not Biden is getting obliterated elsewhere either. If he comes second in IA and NH (which seems like a plausible outcome given the polls) and wins Nevada and SC he'd be a clear frontrunner. For example.
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« Reply #23 on: November 21, 2019, 10:58:46 AM »

The south on its own is not enough to win the nomination.

While that's true, it's not Biden is getting obliterated elsewhere either. If he comes second in IA and NH (which seems like a plausible outcome given the polls) and wins Nevada and SC he'd be a clear frontrunner. For example.

Biden winning Nevada after coming second in both IA and NH (unless he loses them to different candidates, I suppose, but that also seems unlikely) is implausible. At this point, Biden coming second in IA also looks implausible, although who knows.
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Unbeatable Titan Joni Ernst
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« Reply #24 on: November 21, 2019, 01:42:00 PM »

The south on its own is not enough to win the nomination.

While that's true, it's not Biden is getting obliterated elsewhere either. If he comes second in IA and NH (which seems like a plausible outcome given the polls) and wins Nevada and SC he'd be a clear frontrunner. For example.

I mean sure, and tbf he may well come in second in NH (we'll see), but at least right now he's probably looking at a third or even fourth place finish in Iowa.  Obviously, a lot can happen, but I could see a distant third or fourth in Iowa costing him a lot of support from folks who assume he's the only electable candidate and if he then underperforms in NH too (also possible), I don't know that he can recover from the narratives that's gonna create.
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