Rate IL-17 for 2020

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Only reason I'm polling this one is that it's one of the NRCC's targets for 2020. Cook and Sabato also rate it as not safe.

This district has a PVI of D+3. Currently represented by Democrat Cheri Bustos, IL-17 consists of much of Illinois' northwest, and cities such as Peoria and Rockford. In 2012, Obama won this district by 16%. In 2016, Trump won this district by 0.7%.

Recent Results
2018: D +24.2
2016: D +20.6
2014: D +11
2012: D +6.6

[OBD]

Likely D, near-safe. Could go the way of MN-07 eventually, but that would take >10 years.

[lfromnj]

Likely D, near-safe. Could go the way of MN-07 eventually, but that would take >10 years.

Nah its gonna be much more urban post 2020 with all the rural areas stripped out for Mcclean county but anyway to the main topic, im keeping it at Likely D for now. Bustos probably should win but its not impossible she loses.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

People overrate this one - of course Bustos overperformed in 2018, she was running against a 9/11 truther. With that said, she is a strong incumbent and I would be shocked to see her lose, so strong likely D.

[Xing]

While Trump could win this district again, I'd say Bustos is likely to overperform the Democrat by at least several points. Likely D, bordering on Safe.

[Tekken_Guy]

Likely D. Bustos is a strong incumbent and the GOP has barely any bench here.

[Nyvin]

Likely D.   Bustos is going to be tough as nails for the GOP to take down.

[Donerail]

IL GOP is... not in a good way, folks. This is not the cycle they're gonna be picking up seats like this.

[Frenchrepublican]

Likely D. Anyway it would be stupid to target this district considering that Madigan will gerrymander it in order to make it even more D friendly (you know gerrymandering is good when democrats do it.)

[Pericles]

Likely D. Anyway it would be stupid to target this district considering that Madigan will gerrymander it in order to make it even more D friendly (you know gerrymandering is good when democrats do it.)

Most people who oppose gerrymandering oppose it for both sides, gerrymandering is bad because it's undemocratic not just for partisan reasons. You're just pulling assumptions out of your ass.

[ElectionsGuy]

Likely D, near-safe. Could go the way of MN-07 eventually, but that would take >10 years.

Nah its gonna be much more urban post 2020 with all the rural areas stripped out for Mcclean county but anyway to the main topic, im keeping it at Likely D for now. Bustos probably should win but its not impossible she loses.

There is no McLean in this district, and I don't know how it gets much more urban it's already gerrymandered to be as Democratic as possible. It remains Likely D though because if Trump barely won last time then a generic Republican against Bustos will have a very tough time winning it. Republicans should target it though, stupid to ignore large Republican swinging districts like this.

[Gracile]

Likely D. Bustos is a strong incumbent and the GOP has barely any bench here.

The seats in the state legislature that overlap with IL-17 are predominantly Republican (including two legislative gains in this region in 2016 - SD-47 and HD-71 - helped in part by the Trump trend), so I wouldn't exactly call that a weak bench. I think one of the GOP's problems is that Bustos is a solid fundraiser and has maintained a level of crossover appeal to entrench herself. Because of that, many prospective GOP candidates haven't really put in an effort to take her down, and she's left facing weak opposition like that 9/11 truther she faced last year.

With that said, I'd still peg this race as only Likely D. I think Bustos will overperform the Democratic presidential nominee by a fair bit, though I can't shake the feeling that she could succumb to the broader national trend of politicians losing some crossover appeal - winning by thinner margins than in previous races.

[jamestroll]

Likely to safe Democrat. Is there even a credible Republican running?

It is not like Trump won this district by a landslide. It was a very small margin and a complete toss up on who wins the congressional district in 2020 (Trump vs Democrat).

Though I agree Buston probably only wins by around 10 assuming there is a Republican who is not a clown.

[Yellowhammer]

Safe D for 2020. Bustos might collapse some, and I expect Trump to carry her district by more this time, but it definitely won't be enough to drag her down. She's a genuinely strong incumbent and as things stand now, it would take a GOP wave to take her out.