Did people not expect a turnout boost? It seemed super polarized compared to 00?
This. I’m pretty sure everyone knew both parties were going to pick up votes after how relatively low turnout had been in the last several cycles and with a polarizing war raging on.
As energized as the right was in 2004, it couldn’t have been a landslide for Bush because the left would have been just as energized to make him a one-term President. As such, far fewer left-leaning voters would defect to Nader and Kerry would keep states like ME & OR safe for him. I would have also guessed that Kerry’s proximity to NH and Bush’s vulnerability in New England would allow him easier access to flip the 2nd closest Bush state in 2000. However, I still would have bet on a Bush victory in both the popular & electoral vote after knowing he netted that many extra votes.
Bush - 296 EV 50%
Kerry - 242 EV 49%
