You were told in March 2004 Bush would win 12 million more votes than in 2000

[Arbitrage1980]

Bush 04 was the polar opposite of Trump 16: strong popular vote margin but they were distributed very inefficiently across the states. In 04 Bush won only 2 Gore states: Iowa and New Mexico, and his margins there were below 1%. He lost NH to Kerry by 1.2%.

Bush's 2.5% national margin was due to overpeforming in traditional GOP states such as AZ, CO, TX, IN, GA, NC, VA, and winning FL by a whopping 5%. In 2000 Bush's numbers were undermined by the October surprise of the Maine DUI story, resulting in several million evangelicals staying home. In 04, with the 9/11 effect, the conservative base came out in droves. He also got around 40% of Latinos. Bush also did better in the northeast and California (which he lost by "only" 10%) compared to 2000 but not enough to win those states. Ultimately, Bush's weakness with working class whites prevented him from getting more electoral votes.